bbkogan.bsky.social
Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for the Center for American Progress doing budget, tax, and econ.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
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tariffs aren’t part of the official cost estimate since they’re not part of the legislation (but even if you take them into account, it increases the deficit, and if you take them into account it increases the harm on people)
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The way Senate Rs are planning to violate §s 313(b)(1)(B) & 313(b)(1)(E) of the CBA involves abusing §312, where they claim the ability to invent their own cost estimates on the spot.
Once you can invent your own cost estimates to get around the Byrd rule, this whole thing is gonna spiral.
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banger skeet
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And ofc this also assumes the current tariffs all stay in place. If there are additional pauses or they get the deals they claim they're going to get, this all goes away. Or if, you know, another president turns off the tariffs.
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They're focusing on ESI because that's how you square the circle with "we're reducing Medicaid+CHIP spending by $700-$800 billion but also it's not gonna hurt anyone."
But that's ofc insane. TONS of people do not have access to ESI. They'd know that if they knew even one (1) person who wasn't rich.
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bsky.app/profile/bbko...
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Have an interview in 3 but will respond after. This is a super mega lie.
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!!!!
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Tomorrow I will make graphs highlighting
-the Medicaid dollar cuts
-the SNAP dollar cuts
-the number of people losing health insurance under the GOP plan
Stay tuned!
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www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
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The Trump administration is calling to entirely eliminate this fund which has many activities, including combatting young girls being sold into sexual slavery.
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Their frame is a lie. They could already shift spending towards what they wanted. Instead, they're using the pretext of stuff they hate to cut to a program that saves lives.
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oh my god
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Unsurprisingly, GAO says no way. Here's a 2018 ruling from GAO on this very topic: www.gao.gov/products/b-3...
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But what happens if the president waits until the last 45 days of the year to make that request? Russ is arguing he can do that and then.... just not do the final 45 days of spending. Loophole!
So Russ is claiming they have the authority to always cut 45 days worth of spending from programs.
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Under Section 1012 of the Impoundment Control Act, the president can ask Congress to rescind unobligated funding. And for 45 days, while Congress considers the request, the president is allowed to legally pause making further obligations. Makes sense, since he's asking Congress to get rid of it.
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once you’re there, there’s no pretense and you’re fully effectively nuking. i know it’s a dumb distinction, but they have stories to tell themselves about their carveout & about doing current policy. this provision has no score. no story to be told. this only happens if they’re burning it ALL down.
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that provision dies in a byrd bath and falls out of the final bill, 100% guaranteed
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unlikely to go through committee process. will go straight to the floor. then back to the house to try to pass the senate version, or to conference to try to work out disagreements. can really only be stopped in the full charmer (or if they can’t make it out of conference). target individual members
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this is for their tax cuts and medicaid/snap bill, so yeah it’s really bad
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Ha, true! I was talking about the rest of the clip :)
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vought said it on fox either yesterday or the day before