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beingofuniverse.bsky.social
He/him | 25 | Banner by @sarahv.bsky.social
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It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts! Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd And much more in this 🧵 below!

submitted 3 days ago • 19 comments

As funny as this is, who thought of allowing a partial veto *this* powerful was a good idea?

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

You usually find me saying "Democrats should shut up and focus on topics where they're popular". Generally, that means being quiet on immigration. I have been dragged On Here ad-infinitum for it. So it might surprise some of you to know I don't think it's so clear-cut electorally with Abrego Garcia

submitted 10 days ago • 17 comments

The discourse around tariffs has been “things will get more expensive” but I am here to tell you that I am knee deep in reporting on this subject and I strongly suspect that if super high tariffs endure, it will shift to *certain items cease to be available at any price*

submitted 19 days ago • 253 comments

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

submitted 23 days ago • 94 comments

I wish I had this chart months ago when I was arguing with people about the media's impact on consumer sentiment.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

I think if these partially outstanding counties can be even close to trusted, it's not even going to be close in Wisconsin in either the Supreme Court race nor the (slightly closer) Superintendent race.

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Crawford's over-performance in Dane County precincts that have finished reporting already so far is ~6.5

submitted 25 days ago • 6 comments

I'm not sure how the math shakes out, exactly, but I think FL-01 is set to be an even bigger overperformance vs 2024 than FL-06, possibly even 20 points.

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Seems clear to me that A) Democrats' dreams of flipping FL-06 are dead, but B) this is a substantial overperformance, easily >10 points, maybe >15.

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Special April Fools' PFP (13.5 hours late because I forgot it was April Fools' day last night).

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

Istanbul mayor jailed on day of likely presidential nomination

submitted 34 days ago • 15 comments

Just delved into phone repair for the first time...miserable failure. Absolutely awful experience, I lost 2 screws, I forgot to put the power ribbon cable back on, it doesn't want to go back together right, and it's flashing some kind of warning message about a custom OS.

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

Something that I just found out, the 538 model websites have been taken down, which is kind of annoying.

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

Sometimes i think about a beautiful woman dominating me and treating me like a slave and talking to me like I’m stupid and i get so horny i black out

submitted 41 days ago • 8 comments

This is sad on so many levels. It’s not right. VOA and RFE/RL showed the most desperate people on Earth that there’s a better way—democracy and free market capitalism. Of course Musk and Trump (who seem intent on bringing this desperation to the US) will have none of that.

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

In three weeks, Wisconsin will have an election for its Supreme Court. I understand a lot of you don't think fair elections will ever happen again, but this one is happening and it is extremely winnable for Democrats. I urge you to consider giving to Susan Crawford secure.actblue.com/donate/sc-we...

submitted 47 days ago • 14 comments

One of the seeming appeals to strongman-based governance is that, on paper, it's far more obvious who's responsible for what, whereas in a democracy, it's rather muddled and confusing. It's worth noting that in practice, most strongmen have an informal and ever-shifting network of cronies.

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

Woaw

submitted 48 days ago • 4 comments

Oh mai

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated. The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west). My column: www.ft.com/content/3046...

submitted 51 days ago • 132 comments

The chance of the US using physical force against Canada is actually ~0%, the problem is more that they can do a lot of damage to Canada even without using physical force.

submitted 50 days ago • 19 comments

Just a reminder that all the data FiveThirtyEight collected—polls, election results, and much more—is available for download (for now) on our GitHub page. github.com/fivethirtyei...

submitted 53 days ago • 7 comments

Best thing Democrats can and should do is strip ActBlue privileges from these grifting groups. It'll allow for better direction of donor money, stop well-intentioned people from losing hard-earned dollars, and prevent grifters from stealing.

submitted 57 days ago • 5 comments