The chance of the US using physical force against Canada is actually ~0%, the problem is more that they can do a lot of damage to Canada even without using physical force.
Reposted from
Sharon
i put the chance that the US uses physical force against canada at like 2%
which still isn't good, given that number should be 0%
the US can fuck us up even without boots on the ground
which still isn't good, given that number should be 0%
the US can fuck us up even without boots on the ground
Comments
This is literally "There are WMDs in Iraq" propaganda.
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3ljxdhfphnm2c
The top JAG for each of the 3 services were fired last week and, so far, not replaced. Who exactly is going to stop things when the fragile-ego POTUS gives a wild order??!?
Go search "Russian Sanctions" at the other place, you'll the bots at work selling the new plan
He will be lucky if he gets 45% of the military to participate.
I think he’ll do something akin to “little green men” in Donbas circa 2014. Move the border a bit in unpopulated parts of Canada and flood the zone with shit about the treaty of 1908 or something.
Trump has made his intentions clear about Canada joining the US.
He is an impulsive, sensitive guy. What if canadians humiliate him in some way and he acts rashly?
That this thought simply EXISTS (and is not a complete zero) is a huge problem in itself.
You have to worry about Trump seeding a generation of Americans with the idea.
In 2015, what would you have said the chance was that a US president would try to annex Canada and threaten its ruin to achieve his aim? 2% or less?
There doesn't have to be actual fighting.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/canada/trump-trudeau-canada-51st-state.html
Usually with A having the longest duration
When A happens the probability sharply rises and the time frame to respond adequately becames tight or inadequate
Full scale invasion is 0%
Giving militias and Border Patrol tacit approval to cross the border? Non-zero IMO
We already let BP shoot people across the US-Mexico border because we somehow decided no one has jurisdiction to prosecute it