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beyondthetopline.bsky.social
Analysis of polling and elections, with a particular focus on looking under the bonnet to draw out nuances in the electoral landscape. Prone to typos.
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Wow! DIe Linke does much better than expected, while both CDU and AfD fall below symbolically important 30% and 20%, respectively. FDP might still make it, BSW less likely. Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins... #BTW25 #GermanElection

submitted 15 hours ago • 25 comments

Given how horribly unpopular the government is, it's insane that the Tories are nonetheless polling so much more badly on these key metrics. Starmer has a 10 pt lead on Best PM (25%-15%) too. But 25% is still awful. It's just that 15% is Liz Truss levels of bad.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

The by-elections in Scotland seem wildly out of kilter with GE polling, which tends to put Labour essentially tied with Reform at 18-20%. At the time of the May 2022 locals, Labour was polling about 25% in Scotland, and recent by elections show the Labour vote basically static compared to May '22.

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

This to me is the most striking finding on the depth of UK support for Ukraine. We know there is strong support for Ukraine in general but the fact that it even persists traded off against maintaining relations with for the US is a testament to how deep that support is.

submitted 3 days ago • 14 comments

After last week's council by-elections, Reform has its highest moving average ever: Lab 27% (-7 since the election) Con 26% (-1) Lib Dem 18% (+4) Reform 10% (+9) Green 9% (-2)

submitted 7 days ago • 4 comments

Me for @theleaduk.bsky.social on why it's time for Labour to break their promises open.substack.com/pub/theleadu...

submitted 5 days ago • 16 comments

It's been a really nice 6 months not really thinking much about any of this. It's all become a bit scary now, hasn't it? Can't help but feel our entire political context is about to change pretty dramatically....

submitted 4 days ago • 6 comments

Welcome @beyondthetopline.bsky.social! 📊📈 this place is getting busy rather quickly

submitted 499 days ago • 2 comments