beyondthetopline.bsky.social
Analysis of polling and elections, with a particular focus on looking under the bonnet to draw out nuances in the electoral landscape. Prone to typos.
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If you look at Reform’s July vote it splits between 1/3 who share lots of the views of the AfD a more radical right and 2/3 who are more disillusioned democrats. Reform’s new converts since July are much more in the second camp - people unhappy with the status quo but less ideological.
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As in other countries, the far right with strong gains among the young. The idea that far right support is largely driven by authoritarian older voters against the progressive younger ones is being refuted in every election at the moment.
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Agree... I do think Cleverly would be doing better at peeling off Lab and LD voters... but Cleverly prob loses the same amount to Reform anyway. But under him i could see Reform and Cons both ahead of Lab in this scenario whereas Badenoch ensures they're below both....
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Worth remembering Labour have a 7 pt lead over the Tories in this poll. It's 28%-21% - thus nothing to crow about (in reality a dead heat with Reform) but this trajectory is gonna have the Tories competing with Lib Dems for 3rd place...
bsky.app/profile/elec...
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I didn't think it would actually happen, and maybe it wouldn't have if Cleverly became leader (whcih is what I expected to happen) - or perhaps it's structural and was inevitable. I don't know.
But under Badenoch, the Tories look like they're going to be quite quickly replaced by Reform.
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Whereas with the kinds of wards Reform are winning in England - yeah I can totally believe they're competitive with Labour.
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Not saying Labour's polling is necessarily wrong - Council by elections aren't a great indicator, and it makes sense for the Labour vote to have collapsed in Scotland.
But i am *deeply* skeptical that Reform's level of support is anywhere near Labour's in Scotland. No evidence of that at all.
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Would strongly recommend. I never looked back.
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Sympathetic voters wanting to get them over the threshold maybe? BSW are now struggling to get across it so I wonder if some direct transfers from them, for whatever reason
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Thank you!!
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Thank you!! I figured it was time to put some eggs in another basket....