broflovskimac.bsky.social
Canadian. Sorry, eh.
98 posts
354 followers
282 following
Getting Started
Active Commenter
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Manufacturing and heavy industrial markets trade low teens multiple. US’ service based economy trades at 20x.
Act like an EM trade like an EM. Simple.
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Keep putting out good stuff, people will find you over here. Love the weekly. Keep it up
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Also FYI the liberals are the ones who JUST installed a dual (actually triple) citizen as PM without an election.
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Where has PP said anything even remotely approaching your claim they will swap him out for Musk. Pretty wild accusations.
If anything he’s pushed back hard against MAGA.
@timberdoodlydoo.bsky.social
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They can’t just carve out the things that are hurting them.
Admin keeps showing the soft spots on its underbelly. Canada should attack and exert maximum pressure in these areas.
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What do you think about SYP futures finally coming March 31? Will be cash settled. Wonder how much volume we see
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Why would they? What are you seeing
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Country that is short power and commode starts a trade war with one that is very long. And then claims the seller pays the tariffs. Comical.
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Hadnt thought about that. My big fear is minority govt from any party. The new PM needs a strong mandate to right the ship, not bicker in parliament.
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Agreed. Nature abhors a vacuum.
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I think we need change. Would be good to get a govt in place that doesnt think resources are a 4 letter word. Building E-W pipeline and monetizing our resources would help us in our current predicament.
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Ya. I think those rates are inline with what people are thinking. Cost curve is getting very steep, and despite what Coalition says, US needs Canadian lumber. Question is, does SYP follow SPF. If i'm an SYP mill why wouldnt I be trying to take pricingusing this cover?
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I think pricing gets passed on as the US is short +13bn ft.
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Stock off 7% on a broker d/g around tariffs
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Sure. Try finding the labour to run a mill at 100% capacity. Industry usually maxes at 85
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
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How high is lumber going if it’s 25% on Canada + 25% lumber + existing CVD/AD
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Last point IFP likely coming out of the TSX comp. Measurement period over. Announcement Match 7 and trades March 21. Would be like 1.8mm shares or 5x ADV if so.
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Thanks. Sorry still figuring out this site. Thought if i replied everyone got tagged @capitalobserver.bsky.social happy to answer questions.
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Lumber futures continue to climb. CAD producers haven’t budged.
IFP and CFP have more US production than CAD so any tariffs are net benefit to earnings
I prefer CFP because balance sheet is clean with no net debt. IFP balance sheet stretched. No need to take on finlev in addition to opex.
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Has cash kept up with the board?
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What are you seeing out there? Futures are +$30 over the past week.
Lower rates + tariffs = both sides of s/d getting tighter?
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Everyone blaming this daily mail covid article. I mean that or maybe, JUST MAYBE, its markets finally reacting to the fact DJt has been blowing up the global hegemony every day for the past 4 weeks.
Could be either.
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Futures unchanged. Market doesnt believe its gonna happen? Meanwhile, look at HRC curve since tariffs
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Lots of real businesses are cheap and get cheaper every day. Meanwhile unprofitable, story names run higher. It can't last. Feels like we are close to max pain. But i've said that for 2 months now
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There is a 2021 feeling out there. I wonder when the party ends
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Canadian pensions. The answer is always CAD pensions.
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So, do we give the MAGA lumber traders a win because tariffs werent actually enacted?
Can't wait to see the victory laps despite the fact we were pushed to the brink of recession all because DJT still thinks he's on The Apprentice
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And now its about US banks not being able to operate in Canada, except..."at least 15 foreign bank subsidiaries in Canada, including Citibank Canada, J.P. Morgan Bank Canada, and UBS Bank Canada."
www.theglobeandmail.com/world/articl...
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It wasn’t pro-trump. It was just a movement away from Trudeau. They’ve been plagued with scandals since taking office. They also botched immigration and housing files. Plus a carbon tax that he removed only for regions where he needed a swing vote.
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Hope you enjoyed the beach. What a time to come back!
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But we actually have a surplus if you ex energy. It’s so dumb. Almost like he doesn’t know what he’s doing. With that biz acumen it’s no wonder he couldn’t even make money running a casino
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He’s kissing the ring. This won’t help him make any friends in the neighborhood of his new Toronto house he bought.
bsky.app/profile/brof...
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3yrs to build and ramp a new sawmill? And not enough labour to train and ramp existing capacity.
We going limit up tmrw?
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That’s the bigger news. A 10% overnight px increase on AMZN Temu and Shein.
Etsy sellers will feel pain. So will their service providers (SHOP)
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Trudeau said he’s been trying to get in touch with Trump but he hasn’t returned his call since inauguration.
How do we get a quick resolution if they aren’t even talking.
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bsky.app/profile/chry...
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But don’t worry. Tariffs are not inflation. The Treasury secretary told me it can’t be inflationary because people will have less money to spend so demand goes down. Somehow that’s a good thing?
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No lie. Just omitting the fact there aren’t enough people or sawmills to backfill the 10bn ft that comes from up here.
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I’ve been told by your President that you have enough beautiful trees and if you chop them down better trees grow back quickly.
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Oh wait, reports it was moved to March 1. Now WH walking that back and saying no, Feb 1 still happening