campbell-thompson.bsky.social
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Surely tensions will be inflamed in any and every event
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This post prompted me to look up what an autopen was, so I have learned something new. Otherwise it was just par for the course, right?
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All of that said, I would not be too confident about Europe’s defence capability right now without America.
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
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It is not so much “the narrative”, it is just the Trump administration, which is peddling Russian propaganda. But America can strengthen Russia’s strategic position by cutting off all support for Ukraine, which seems to be the plan this week.
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This narrative is also propaganda. You are not above the fray and the history you are endorsing is not impartial. The central question is whether one thinks it should be up to Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians whether they want to look East or West, or whether Russia should have a veto.
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We should at least be able to agree that the Polish people wanted to be in “the West’s” orbit militarily and economically. Go and ask them whether they regret joining NATO.
I share your concerns about America blackmailing Ukraine. For Trump, like Putin, the wishes of Ukrainians don’t matter.
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Eastern Europe was not “pulled into” NATO. Centuries of history, not speculation, tell us that those countries would otherwise have remained in Russia’s sphere of influence. Russia’s post-Cold War aggression against non-NATO neighbours confirms the likely result.
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Of course one can find provocations. But absent NATO expansion, Russia would have had substantial influence over the political and economic direction of Eastern Europe. That would have been seen as a moral betrayal, and might have hastened war. There were never going to be easy choices.
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I know all this. But there was no moral case for America and the Soviet Union to stitch up the future of the peoples of Eastern Europe at the end of the Cold War. In any case, verbal assurances are irrelevant given later written treaties. Anyway, none of this even slightly justifies the invasion.
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Have a look at the 1997 NATO-Russia Agreement, under which Russia explicitly agreed to NATO expansion. And also the 1994 Agreement between US, Russia and Ukraine in which the latter’s sovereignty was guaranteed. The Russians want to rewrite history. Which works when people do not know the facts.
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Broadly, yes. The Ukrainian parliament approved the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement by 315-44 early in 2013. By late 2013, polling showed about half the population wanted it signed straightaway and about a third did not. Yanyukovich walked away under pressure from Moscow.
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Nice to see you focusing on some of the big issues for a change
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The idea the people of Eastern Europe might prefer to look West, and would rather fight a protracted war than be subjugated again by Russia, is something many on the left can’t fathom. So the conclusion is they must have been manipulated. Those on the far right are more open about just not caring.
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For geopolitical conspiracists the hand of history is always America’s. But events tend to take everyone by surprise. In 2013 most Ukrainians wanted EU membership. Yanyukovich faced spontaneous protests when he suddenly took Ukraine off that path to move closer to Russia. He reacted with violence.
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Despite what Trump says, Russia started the war. What you are calling “escalation” is all in the context of Ukraine’s defence.
Of course all sane people want peace, but if that is on the terms Putin wants (with Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarisation), then Ukraine will become a puppet of Russia.
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Ukraine’s drone industry is largely dependent on cheap parts from China, which is a problem because China has started imposing export restrictions.
ecfr.eu/article/dron...
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Courts can’t save America’s democracy. Institutions can be swiftly undermined. Rebuilding them is harder. Court orders won’t do it, even if Trump obeys them. Still, there are no other options today. Benjamin Wittes has an interesting piece on this in Lawfare.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/are-...
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“Conservatives are now celebrating Musk’s purchase … but what if, faced with a deepening crisis of election disinformation, he goes into goblin mode against right-wing politicians who are making his hands-off moderation hopes untenable or who are threatening his climate change agenda?”
What if?
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Putin wants land but also to end Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty. He won’t allow Ukraine’s security to be truly guaranteed (ie by a NATO-like commitment, with boots on the ground), unless he thinks the alternative will be worse.