chase13.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

lol the labor mkt is good and everything is fine, oh btw we’re gonna cut 10% of staff. Brilliant stuff

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

The deregulation pro-growth fantasy is every bit as delusional as believing Trump and DOGE would reduce debt and deficits.

submitted 34 days ago • 1 comment

lol the whole tariff thing is still pretty unresolved too you guys.

submitted 35 days ago • 2 comments

IMO the biggest fwd risk is many SMBs operate with their head in the sand irt macro, and they get surprised by tariffs/supply/shipping, without a big demand surge on the other side. And that make them cut someone. Thats where the slowdown would start, and those macro waves are just beginning to…

submitted 36 days ago • 1 comment

Cyclicals rallying this wk like some acceleration or boom time is in front of us. Crazy. Yes some names were pricing a big left tail and now they’re not, fine- but a lot are taking it too far imo

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

Idc whether you think you were “right” or not, every soul on this earth has had a wrong take at some point over the past 60 days on all this nonsense. There was no correct analysis bc there wasn’t anything to analyze/ no North Star. Just randomness, whims, first level thoughts, and impulsiveness.

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

If we tariff all imports at 10% and China at 50, do earnings go up 12% this yr? Serious question

submitted 49 days ago • 1 comment

Surprised at how many people are surprised that the 10% global rate is the rate. There’a no deal for that. The mkt is so obsessed with “deals” when trump literally said Tuesday these “deals” are de minimus. Mkt just can’t see past it lol Again, it’s hard as ever rn to know what’s priced in the mkt.

submitted 49 days ago • 0 comments

Ofc we all hear what we want when Powells job today is to say basically nothing, but unpacking it I hear: “listen things don’t look good and sure I’d expect it to rollover too but I have to wait to see it in the hard data, then we have the green light”

submitted 50 days ago • 1 comment

“In some case we’ll sign some deals it’ll be much less important than what I’m talking about” ^thats like Japan buying soybeans. Agreed, it’s irrelevant. But the mkt thinks this is the framework for everything. The man is telling you it’s the framework for nothing.

submitted 51 days ago • 0 comments

Anecdotal but talking to a few niche product cos they say everything is frozen (so no one is doing it), but even with 145% Chinese rate it’s still cheaper than the US. Heard this multiple, unrelated times. And just like Apple, also cited is its not just the cost, but they are good.

submitted 54 days ago • 1 comment

Also “China wants to talk” is way diff than US does tariffs > oops > begs China to talk to undo oops > they say ok we’ll hear ya out

submitted 55 days ago • 0 comments

I do think a good chunk of the move off of 5000 is a “most of this is walked back before it matters” thesis, and like- this China PR confirms that? Are you sure lol? If we were still at 5k, I get it- talking is good, incremental good. But, we’re not.

submitted 55 days ago • 0 comments

This is diff bc we aren’t really having a shock. It’s more a slow motion train wreck. Some cos stocked up a little to be prepped. Some are closer to the epicenter. Some are in the “eh nothings changed yet camp”. We’re just learning where cos are in the time line.

submitted 56 days ago • 0 comments

So Ford is basically unch ytd. Are we really saying that none of the last 60 days will matter and it’ll all be rolled back and “we good”? I don’t follow autos closely but idk mate, just hard to square. TM the same, GM down 10pp maybe.

submitted 58 days ago • 0 comments

“We don’t expect the situation to be the same after the 90days and we should expect the Eu to also retaliate (when final level is determined)” Ngl even I kinda forgot the retaliation phase still prob ahead.

submitted 62 days ago • 0 comments

One thing underappreciated about globalization in DM v EM: It’s not just goods v services, but we’ve outsourced cyclicality. Higher margin, more consistent fcfs get higher multiples, so every biz tries to get there. More consistent fcf = better budgets = smoother spending for services.

submitted 63 days ago • 2 comments

We still getting those semi/pharma tariffs or did he forget about those?

submitted 64 days ago • 0 comments

Just so I have this right, the 145% is still in place and there’s no timeline for that to drop, just that it will sometime? We all knew it would eventually, it’s not workable and dumb. The important q has always been for how long and too what level

submitted 64 days ago • 0 comments

Not high conviction take but I really think the trump team believes their whole tariffs are great thing, and Bessent was like “ok but can yall please just talk about deals so the mkt is cool?” And so they agreed, they all talk about deals but the actual “yay tariffs” plan is unch.

submitted 69 days ago • 1 comment

The funny thing is yall know it makes trump so mad that he’s being told that Powell is just as (more) important as he is to the mkt

submitted 70 days ago • 0 comments

Since December my take has been there’s a lot of left tails, big and small, and no right ones. Whole pod episode on it below. Today same applies, but the left most tails are prob cut off- still can’t see a right one. open.spotify.com/episode/26Nc...

submitted 75 days ago • 0 comments

Geez "To add to the list of worries, we will be in the crosshairs. It's going to happen — and it's okay. We are deeply embedded in these other countries, people like us, but I do think some clients or some countries will feel differently about American banks, and we'll just have to deal with that"

submitted 76 days ago • 0 comments

@conorsen.bsky.social jpm said it straight up- data will be weird from front running from consumers. So March retail sales? April? March cpi was before so April? What do you think?

submitted 76 days ago • 0 comments

There’s a non zero chance the arrogance of this admin rn thinks a solution is cutting rates via replacing Powell and boy howdy they’d get that one wrong.

submitted 76 days ago • 0 comments

When soros and bessent broke the boe, they basically did the same thing happening now. They were a mkt force, saw weakness, and pushed and pushed. Now he’s the one getting broken

submitted 76 days ago • 0 comments

The fact the one of the first “big names” that comes to trump is babe Ruth is all you need to know about his fundamental view on economies

submitted 77 days ago • 0 comments