chase13.bsky.social
Brevity is not my gift. PM at Doxa Capital. CFA. CofC alum. girldad x2. Nothing here is investment advice.
238 posts
140 followers
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100% my take since December. There isn’t really a mix of stuff that’s net good. We all can argue about fine vs bad vs getting worse, whatever. That matters at spx 5k, matters a lot less at 6k.
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I seriously have *NO* idea why people were convinced it was over smh
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The index at >20 multiple when shit like this morning is happening is just bonkers. Idc about the “but but the rate of change is better…”
A fundamental step change of the environment has occurred. Maybe earnings are fine and it’s all talk, fine- but the multiple has to reflect the “EM” risk
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Industrials making a relative high here is just so far outside of my understanding. I guess I’m just dumb now idk
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…surprise some smbs I know (anecdotal, yes). Big public cos are very aware, and very prepared. So there’s nothing to see there- but no one can avoid a rev slowdown bc u3 is up. And that’s a (maybe) h2 thing? But the probability is there, and it’s not that small a number imo.
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Ok if there was one team you couldn’t make #1 bc everyone would know it was rigged, it was Dallas
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Odd lots pod this morning “dept store owner said man this is great everyone’s buying stuff now”
Just big rift in people whose field of vision is rn vs 6mo out. Reminds me a bit of RE agents in 2021 lol
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Current cons - 166/182 for 25/26.
So 20x 2026 = 5640
11% then 6% eps growth with call it a 10% tax hit on goods margins/consumer combo.
And still pay 20x. Boy idk.
Context for multiple- last decade fwd is between 16.5ish to 22ish.
Lastly- think skew. Maybe this hits, but what’s the upside?
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Bro nearly *everywhere* I go in the world someone from NC pops up, it’s a running joke in the family at this point it’s wild.
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Yah sure, fair enough - I see what you’re saying.
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Sure - it’d be a decaying theta situation daily no doubt. But 3 claims up and a negative job print would open the door.
*not saying it’s probable at all btw, just saying at this point my certainty in anything is very low.
Im favoring a slow motion train wreck as you know
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But probability has to exist for a quicker than likely deterioration in the labor mkt. So June cut can’t be 0%
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Enjoy the time brother!
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No sorry- good as in skillful at making good quality stuff to the right specs
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It is all related but I’m saying some of that capex is reactive/ later in the chain. No reason why in June some single source smbs are out of inventory and can’t afford to operate, shed their 10 employees. That can snowball and the big boy capex cuts aren’t on the front end of that
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Smb employment and service emp for those smbs outweigh data center capex imo
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lol we all know the avg voter doesn’t think (understand) like this and votes based on TikTok/podcast vibes, or what they heard happened to their neighbors cousin last wk.
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An economy that makes a lot of stuff is also a very cyclical one, and that by itself creates a lot of reinforcing dynamics. Constant cyclicality is hard to live in, people don’t actually like booms/busts every 4 years, they want predictability bc predictability = richer.
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⛳️
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It doesn’t mate, that’s what I mean- there’s no exit ramp, they don’t want one. Tariffs were always the plan, maybe they’ll reduce them to a flat 10 when u3 goes up, but then we’re in recession and we’ll be on to those problems.
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lol right. And there’s enough mkt people that refuse to believe all this stuff is happening, so they kind of believe it.
Reality sets in sooner or later
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That next sentence is just as important imo. Will the ‘confusion pause’ sow seeds for cutback in and of itself? Pausing activity that hard for weeks has consequences, whether it’s a honest good faith pause or not
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Bro- me every time and I’m not sorry for it. Everyone gets what they want this way lolol