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cliffordinwales.bsky.social
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A question that no-one in Whitehall dare ask. What happens if Trump decides to turn off Britain's nukes? A column in the FT... www.ft.com/content/762c...

It has been an insane week. Here is my 5th article published in 6 days. "The geopolitical earthquake in Europe will inevitably see aftershocks in Asia. Those aftershocks have arrived. Welcome, Australia, to an entirely new Pacific security environment." www.smh.com.au/world/oceani...

Ukraine Fact Sheet - February 21, 2025: isw.pub/UkraineFacts...

No matter how hard Donald Trump tries, he still can’t get Republican voters to like Vladimir Putin.

How’s this prediction going so far?

By brazenly treating some of Washington’s key allies as adversaries—and its autocratic adversaries as partners—Trump may be administering the death blow to a once-stable world system, columnist Michael Hirsh writes.

“A key finding is that tactical drones are inflicting roughly two-thirds of Russian losses…twice as effective as every other weapon in the Ukr arsenal put together…remarkable…for weapons which did not officially exist in the Ukr mil at start of the war” www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...

You can put Telegraph in the same bracket as the Morning Star when it comes to prioritising the interests of foreign authoritarian regimes over British and European interests

The slippery, sane-washing desperation of Boris Johnson as he realises what his whole-hearted backing of Trump means. Excruciating.

Foreign Leader Favourability Ratings amongst British Voters: 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyy Favourable: 64% Unfavourable: 16% NET: +48% 🇺🇸 Donald Trump Favourable: 22% Unfavourable: 73% NET: -51% 🇷🇺 Vladimir Putin Favourable: 4% Unfavourable: 89% NET: -85% Via @YouGov, 16-17 Feb.

Make this @OfficialUoM press release viral “Trump … echoed Kremlin talking points, by falsely claiming …Zelensky’s approval rating stands at a mere 4%…polling…puts his approval rating at 63% - making him the most popular politician in the country.” www.manchester.ac.uk/about/news/t...

📚 New study in @thelancet.bsky.social shows life expectancy stagnation in Europe with Norway the only country seeing a rise. The #food we eat, #tobacco and #alcohol use, physical #inactivity and #obesity are largely to blame, as well as the #Covid pandemic. www.news-medical.net/news/2025021...

US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine will soon become futile and delegitimised as it becomes clear that Ukraine will reject whatever Putin-appeasing deal is agreed. Negotiations will then focus on what happens after the proposal fails. Don't be surprised if Trump drops sanctions without a deal.

Immigration, mostly from outside the EU, surged due to Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Net migration rose from 184,000 in 2019 to 906,000 in 2023. It was a gift to Nigel Farage, writes Andrew Adonis. www.prospectmagazine...

Over one year ago (well one year three days ago) I made the obvious prediction that Trump ditching Europe and Ukraine could mean rapprochement with China. x.com/FrancescoNic... It wasn't a recommendation per se: I outlined the key EU interests to be protected in such event. Seems relevant now.

Some good news for a change Scientists found solar farms had a greater number of species & individual birds per hectare than surrounding arable land Solar did not pose a threat to national food security, esp when built on low or moderate grade agricultural land www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Word of the Day is ‘quockerwodger’ (19th century): a puppet individual whose strings are pulled entirely by someone else.

WSJ sub: “Indian Partition went smoothly enough, right? Will try to remember to check this before publishing.”

Think Reform’s net-zero announcements may well be their first big mistake since their rise in the polls. There would definitely be scope to criticise specific climate measures, but trying to actively reverse shift to renewables lands well on wrong side of British public opinion.

Clarkson is right. Brexit has made travelling to the EU with any kind of professional equipment, nightmarish. Carnets for cameras etc is a bureaucratic, expensive waste of time. But it applies to loads of industries, esp musicians/performing artists etc. www.thetimes.com/article/5356...

It's been almost ten years since the referendum. Demand that anyone arguing the opposite case, that divergence and independent regulation can be a greater engine for growth, name some specific suggestions instead of just mumbling vaguely about AI and finance.

If you want to win an election against far right opposition you need to bring together two groups. The activated liberals outraged by the other side and the more moderate groups who want govt to make their lives less difficult. Not by trying to win the enthusiastic supporters of the other side.

Further reflection, but the thought has been building for a while. To restore UK growth, the government has to bury the tribute-Thatcherism which has dominated the economic approach for too long (and isn't actually that reminiscent of the 1980s). And this is a story of Labour Party history.

Best way to understand how Trump is changing the world: Canada, Panama, most of western Europe etc spent last 80 years in a petting zoo. Now he's emptying the zoo out into the jungle. Every country needs to ask: where are we in the new food chain? Me @financialtimes.com on.ft.com/3CGHEQW