cplaisant.bsky.social
International Relations | Diplomacy | Turkey-Syria | Et un peu d'@OL. Personal views here
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This is probably one of the favourite passions of analysts and commentators: pointing out the differences between Erdogan and Bahçeli and drawing all sorts of conclusions.
There are obviously differences between the two, but they always manage to settle their differences.
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People's Alliance*😕
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between religious/conservative values and secular/liberal values.
For more details, CATS Network Roundup February 2025 :
www.cats-network.eu/topics/cats-...
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As Mehmet Sinan Birdal clearly shows, this declaration reflects a broader trend in Erdoğan’s governance,
in which family policy is increasingly intertwined with concerns
about the survival of the regime. The government's mobilisation against LGTBT is seen as a cultural war +
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Some excellent insights here.
bsky.app/profile/nick...
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A good addition to the original discussion, thank you @nickashdown.bsky.social !
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-putting pressure on the CHP leadership, particularly Ozgur Ozel (Erdogan often says that the CHP needs to be ‘cleaned up’).
-making Istanbul's metropolitan mayor's office dysfunctional. This is the main aim of the operation, after the objective of eliminating Erdogan's main rival, Imamoglu.
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The continuing arrests appear to have several functions:
-serve the government's narrative that we are living through the biggest corruption affair in history, involving a veritable criminal organisation (see the leaked organisation chart in the pro-government media)
bsky.app/profile/cpla...
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An organisation chart published by .... Yeni safak, a pro-government media outlet. Everything is well oiled.
www.yenisafak.com/gundem/izler...
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That's true ! This is an important point to emphasise
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More generally, Erdogan's declarations are never just shock phrases, and they are always rich, integrated into a real project and horizon. Here's a summary.
bsky.app/profile/sine...
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This impasse is indicative of modes of government that are excessively identified with a single person. And the way the AKP operates and the fact that it capitalises on the figure of the single leader means that the question of succession cannot be asked ‘democratically
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The current sequence is a good illustration of the government's dual approach: repression/reform. In addition to recentralisation reforms, there are now daily episodes of repression against large sections of the opposition, as demonstrated by the operation against the mayor of Istanbul Imamoglu.
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For the gouvernment, this reform would be a golden opportunity to recover de facto, in the form of a system of trusteeship, the lost metropolitan municipalities, notably Istanbul and Ankara, which are real levers of clientelist redistribution ++
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constituted a base on which the opposition -CHP and pro-Kurdish DEM - has been able to build credibility in terms of alternative practice to the ruling bloc, but has also enabled it to get its hands on (limited) public resources ++
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powers of urban transformation and zoning.
In the Turkish context, such regulations would have considerable political consequences. In addition to the fact that the municipal level is at the heart of the opposition's strategy to strengthen its bases, municipal powers have also ++
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This new reform sought by the AKP would significantly reduce the power of municipalities, to the benefit of central government: supervision and validation of municipal budgets by the governor's office, authorisation from the ministry for the payment of social assistance, blocking of municipalities +
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I'm sharing it, it's an important article
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English version of this piece is available, fyi: open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...
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"A source familiar with the negotiations said the Israeli government was largely comfortable with Turkey deploying land forces, including tanks and infantry, in Syria [...] the main question was where Ankara would place its air defence systems and radars, which could monitor Israeli air operations".
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2/2
-Ahmet Erdi Öztürk on the possibility of a multidimensional strategic partnership between Ankara and London (yetkinreport.com/en/2025/05/2...)
-Gerard Araud on the need for a real rapprochement between Ankara and Paris (www.lepoint.fr/monde/pourqu...)
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Very comprehensive paper, bravo !
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From the government's point of view, keeping a low profile is the least worst tactic. Especially as it has landed on its feet since the first complicated weeks following the operation against Imamoglu (with the acceleration of the anti-inflation programme).
www.evrensel.net/yazi/96955/1...
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Indeed, keeping a low profile is the best tactic. Especially as the government has since landed on its feet (with the acceleration of the anti-inflation programme).
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On point 2, mobilising 400 MPs is likely to be a very complicated task, since it would probably require all the DEM MPs. Unlikely, but in any case we are not at that stage at the moment, as the disarmament and demobilisation of the PKK has not even begun.
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2) The transfer of opposition MPs to the AKP is likely to intensify this summer. Context: in order to vote on a constitutional amendment (which should, among other things, allow Erdogan to stand for re-election), the ruling bloc needs to muster 400 votes, whereas it has 328 MPs.
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For others, it is yet another means of taming and even redesigning the opposition. I tend towards the second interpretation.