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danielagabor.bsky.social
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capital, threatened in extremis
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The Bailey premium in one chart - imagine if Keir Starmer, in a sudden bout of courage, would take the fight to the real drag on the fiscal position, the Bank of England governor. Instead he's hurting disabled people.
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The market Ben, the market mechanism.
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here @pilitaclark.bsky.social is Greenpeace paragliding our report on greening ECB corporate bond portfolio onto the ECB's Frankfurt building www.politico.eu/article/gree...
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here is @isabelschnabel.bsky.social unpacking the carbon bias in market neutrality www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...
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and for those new to these ideas, here is (unfortunately only there) Lagarde answering questions in European Parliament x.com/PositiveMone...
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How do I know about this omerta? First, the G20 expert group on climate I was part of last year was told in no unclear terms by several G7 countries that they wouldn't support the report if we insisted on keeping central banks in. www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sit...
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Financiers - BlackRock the most active lobbyist against - were relieved. The threat of transformative climate action was off the table. Since then, we live under a climate central bank omerta!
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Andrew Bailey at Bank of England understood the threat to CB political power first and dropped climate. ECB then followed, as Lagarde couldn't fight on two fronts (inflation and climate)
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It didn't just put responsibility for climate straight in the court of the most powerful state institution but also undermined the foundations of that power - if central banks do credit policy, then Trump gets to ask why not for his benefit
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The program had a dry, technical name - Tilting the corporate bond portfolio - but the politics was intensely contested
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from 2021 to 2023, the ECB did a lot more than the stress tests in the FT article - it took active steps to stop its climate destructive monetary policy. why the taboo around it? Because correcting carbon bias looks a lot like credit policy, and it penalises dirty lending. Financiers hated it.
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the ECB, with (in hindsight very brave) Isabel Schnabel, took Carney to the logical conclusion and admitted that the neoliberal foundation of modern central banking - market neutrality - meant carbon bias. Far from being a neutral arbiter, ECB was complicit in financing dirty activities
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then Mark Carney gave his 2015 speech. Financiers described him as a 'dangerously deluded fool'. Why? Because this was something truly radical - he told the world central banks were already climate policy makers.
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but then 2008 crisis happened, and the invincible aura of independent central banks crumbled - misguided, Minsky-crises blind. Their Friedmanite motto - the foundation of cb independence - 'you cant buy government bonds' also crumbled. But cb still got to keep their political power.
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as Milton Friedman's suspicions of public money creation - always political, always inflationary - got political purchase, central banks became today's institutions: 'technocratic', price stability oriented, first among macro institutions (monetary dominance), market neutral, no credit policy
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central banks are powerful public institutions - they (solely) create public money and control terms of private money creation. in the good old pre-neoliberal days, the state used central banks for credit policy: the deliberate allocation of credit to strategic sectors (China still does it)
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I know this too well, not just as a researcher, as a scholar involved in global policy spaces, where greening central banks has been a taboo for the past three years
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this erasure is the result of a systematic effort to basically re-write the history of central bank climate action, a concerted effort that has involved central banks themselves, governments, and financiers.
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oh look @theguardian.com editors, you may consider some fact checking before publishing op-eds from people with an ax to grind bsky.app/profile/elie...
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ha, and Mamdani closed his speech with an FDR quote - well that's a better heir than Biden.
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joking aside, we'll enjoy the sweet feeling of hope for one morning.
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Mamdani also broke the curse of the economists letters! A few of us signed one in support of his social democratic plans, and I secretly feared it would be his undoing :) www.thenation.com/article/econ...
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I am serious - Trump billionaires like Bill Ackman are funding Cuomo, because American democracy means big money can interfere with every process in every party!
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nothing can beat the chupatz of a private equity titan, who makes money from the socialism for the rich version of American capitalism.
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I hear you - many a time I've had to convince people I'm not the Gabor in that corporate headquarters photo
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Pub chain heiress is my favorite bit of that list of superpowers.
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'Increased investment will always be accompanied by increased saving, but it can never be preceded by it. Dishoarding and credit expansion provides not an alternative to increased saving, but a necessary preparation for it. It is the parent, not the twin, of increased saving.'
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'investment financed by savings' - loanable funds fallacy discredited by Keynes nearly a century ago and inconsistent w endogenous money
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And to clarify: I wasn't asking for explanations, everything in that sentence is wrong in macro monetary terms bsky.app/profile/jbie...
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I've read this three times and still have no idea what it means. Bet Wolf doesn't either.
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Apparently old fashioned social democracy is too radical for Establishment Democrats.
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this new partnership - besides 'agile' deregulation at behest of capital - involves 8 'high-growth' sectors, including, you guessed, the City of London, which apparently needs the gentle derisking hand of the British state