deanolytics.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Paolo Banchero had the best offense, best defense, and best overall yesterday. That doesn't happen much. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

submitted 12 hours ago • 0 comments

Total net points added on offense in transition. This captures both efficiency and volume. Jokic is so good because he initiates it so often. Braun finishes it a lot. Josh Hart is always good in transition.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

The New York Times/Athletic ($) talked about work @benalamar.bsky.social and I did to quantify how familiarity with teammates matters. It definitely matters a lot. www.nytimes.com/athletic/618...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Thanks to the Basketball Illuminati crew for having me on to talk about the work that @deanolytics.bsky.social and I did on chemistry in basketball/Why the Lakers' Offense Can Improve @tomhaberstroh.bsky.social @cornpuzzle.bsky.social @darthamin.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Al Horford faced 23 isos last night, second-most in tracking history. He allowed just 0.39 points per direct play, per Second Spectrum, on those. His +5.2 defensive net points were best of the day.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

The economy is a system of trust. Trust to buy, sell, trade, honor contracts, not cheat other people. If trust breaks down, the economy breaks down.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Some explanation of the method underlying some of the player values at ESPN. More full explanation in Basketball Beyond Paper. www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...

submitted 10 days ago • 2 comments

I really like a lot of what's in this article around coaching. "My job as a head coach is not just to coach basketball. It’s to really put an imprint on this community, on this arena, on everyone that works here."

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Examples of threshold wins/losses last night: - Steph worth +14.9 in win by 6 - Quinten Post +7.9 in W by 6 - KCP -8.5 in L by 6 - Grayson -8.3 in L by 8 - Exum +8.1 in W by 7 Where a player's net pts were the difference between winning or losing. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Anthony Edwards getting suspended for 16 techs means a cost to the Wolves to not having him. But 16 techs also dings his defensive numbers roughly by half a win. It's not what we think of as D, but techs adds up. Draymond and Dillon Brooks can do this, too.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Steph shot an effective 88% yesterday. The rest of the Warrior starters shot 30%. From when Steph came in about 4 min into Q2 until checking out with 2 minutes left in Q3, the Ws outscored ORL by 25. Steph was worth +14.4 of that. Basically the other guys played D. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

In the epic 22-point comeback by the Wolves in Q4 vs the Thunder, here is how the players and Four Factors contributed in that quarter. Net points are divided credit/blame for how the team gains or loses points. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

A case where scoring 35 points doesn't mean you had a good game: Anthony Edwards scored 37 pts, but on 13/32 shooting and some poor defensive numbers, and the team was outscored by 11 with him on. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

submitted 20 days ago • 2 comments

Ja Morant had another bad one today. That's not his history. Strange.

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

I'm speaking at a career conference next Friday at George Washington University. @deanolytics.bsky.social will be there also. Here are some details!

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

Quick notes: - KD makes Best Offense leaderboard on the day he reaches 30k pts (he makes it a lot) - Nikola Vucevic's offense was good through Cup play, but has come back to earth since. (D, too.) - Embiid was producing about +5 net pts/48 min, just +1.5 this year espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

With respect to Jalen Hurts, but him getting named Super Bowl MVP is crazy. The first half had the win probability go from 50% to 98.6%. His QBR was a meh 54 in that half. Eagles offensive EPA was +4.3, while their defensive EPA was +17.5. The D totally carried the win.

submitted 32 days ago • 2 comments

I noticed today that Sports Analytics Pioneer Dean Oliver is on Bluesky @deanolytics.bsky.social Give him a follow

submitted 35 days ago • 0 comments

One thing I did for Basketball Beyond Paper was evaluate the average triple-double in terms of net points. Here are the average values for players this year with at least three triple-doubles. www.amazon.com/Basketball-b...

submitted 35 days ago • 0 comments

Shai's 50-point night was worth +16.8. Ant's 49-point night was worth +8.2 and he didn't make daily top 6. (Hatred is bad for your heart.) - Part is D, +1.9 for SGA, -2.1 for Ant - 5 turnovers for Ant to 1 for SGA (~ 4 pts) - FTs, 3s, 2pt shots are mostly a wash. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

submitted 36 days ago • 0 comments

A good interview with @kpelton.bsky.social on - how he got to be an ESPN writer - potential podcast partners - changing his mind - blind spots - food analytics - Blue Sky itself thef5.substack.com/p/the-f5-q-a...

submitted 37 days ago • 1 comment

Best and worst players last night. See espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su... for best/worst offense and defense from last night.

submitted 37 days ago • 0 comments

In the last ten games, the Blazers have gone 9-1 and had the best defense and ninth best offense. After having the third worst defense and 4th worst offense over the prior 41. The table shows the Who - with Scoot, Simons, Camara, and Ayton dramatically improving.

submitted 37 days ago • 1 comment

From BPI, these are the unhealthiest and healthiest teams in terms of availability of quality players, relative to their opponents. Philly has added 9.5 losses due to relative unavailability of good players, DET has 4.0 extra wins by being more available. espn.com/nba/bpi

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

"Most inconsistent" is hard to define, but I looked at players with highest rate of having more than +3 net points or less than -3 net points (with technical details). I got this list, inspired by some of the wild numbers yesterday.

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

There is some talk that AD can play with Dallas' bigs like he played with Javale McGee in the 2020 Lakers playoffs. AD was indeed great then, +8.1 net points/48. But in the regular season that year, he was only +2.6 - much closer to his norm and over a longer period of time.

submitted 39 days ago • 0 comments

Fit of LeBron-Luka: We can look at how well Luka played with other alpha distributors, Kyrie Irving and Jalen Brunson (though he wasn't always alpha). Since the 19-20 season, Luka is almost equally as good with those guys, offensive net pts of +6.0 with them on, +6.8 without them.

submitted 39 days ago • 0 comments

Paolo Banchero had the best offense, best defense, and best overall yesterday. That doesn't happen much. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

Total net points added on offense in transition. This captures both efficiency and volume. Jokic is so good because he initiates it so often. Braun finishes it a lot. Josh Hart is always good in transition.

The New York Times/Athletic ($) talked about work @benalamar.bsky.social and I did to quantify how familiarity with teammates matters. It definitely matters a lot. www.nytimes.com/athletic/618...

Thanks to the Basketball Illuminati crew for having me on to talk about the work that @deanolytics.bsky.social and I did on chemistry in basketball/Why the Lakers' Offense Can Improve @tomhaberstroh.bsky.social @cornpuzzle.bsky.social @darthamin.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...

Al Horford faced 23 isos last night, second-most in tracking history. He allowed just 0.39 points per direct play, per Second Spectrum, on those. His +5.2 defensive net points were best of the day.

The economy is a system of trust. Trust to buy, sell, trade, honor contracts, not cheat other people. If trust breaks down, the economy breaks down.

Some explanation of the method underlying some of the player values at ESPN. More full explanation in Basketball Beyond Paper. www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...

I really like a lot of what's in this article around coaching. "My job as a head coach is not just to coach basketball. It’s to really put an imprint on this community, on this arena, on everyone that works here."

Examples of threshold wins/losses last night: - Steph worth +14.9 in win by 6 - Quinten Post +7.9 in W by 6 - KCP -8.5 in L by 6 - Grayson -8.3 in L by 8 - Exum +8.1 in W by 7 Where a player's net pts were the difference between winning or losing. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

Anthony Edwards getting suspended for 16 techs means a cost to the Wolves to not having him. But 16 techs also dings his defensive numbers roughly by half a win. It's not what we think of as D, but techs adds up. Draymond and Dillon Brooks can do this, too.

Steph shot an effective 88% yesterday. The rest of the Warrior starters shot 30%. From when Steph came in about 4 min into Q2 until checking out with 2 minutes left in Q3, the Ws outscored ORL by 25. Steph was worth +14.4 of that. Basically the other guys played D. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

In the epic 22-point comeback by the Wolves in Q4 vs the Thunder, here is how the players and Four Factors contributed in that quarter. Net points are divided credit/blame for how the team gains or loses points. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

A case where scoring 35 points doesn't mean you had a good game: Anthony Edwards scored 37 pts, but on 13/32 shooting and some poor defensive numbers, and the team was outscored by 11 with him on. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

Ja Morant had another bad one today. That's not his history. Strange.

I'm speaking at a career conference next Friday at George Washington University. @deanolytics.bsky.social will be there also. Here are some details!

Quick notes: - KD makes Best Offense leaderboard on the day he reaches 30k pts (he makes it a lot) - Nikola Vucevic's offense was good through Cup play, but has come back to earth since. (D, too.) - Embiid was producing about +5 net pts/48 min, just +1.5 this year espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

With respect to Jalen Hurts, but him getting named Super Bowl MVP is crazy. The first half had the win probability go from 50% to 98.6%. His QBR was a meh 54 in that half. Eagles offensive EPA was +4.3, while their defensive EPA was +17.5. The D totally carried the win.

I noticed today that Sports Analytics Pioneer Dean Oliver is on Bluesky @deanolytics.bsky.social Give him a follow

One thing I did for Basketball Beyond Paper was evaluate the average triple-double in terms of net points. Here are the average values for players this year with at least three triple-doubles. www.amazon.com/Basketball-b...

Shai's 50-point night was worth +16.8. Ant's 49-point night was worth +8.2 and he didn't make daily top 6. (Hatred is bad for your heart.) - Part is D, +1.9 for SGA, -2.1 for Ant - 5 turnovers for Ant to 1 for SGA (~ 4 pts) - FTs, 3s, 2pt shots are mostly a wash. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

A good interview with @kpelton.bsky.social on - how he got to be an ESPN writer - potential podcast partners - changing his mind - blind spots - food analytics - Blue Sky itself thef5.substack.com/p/the-f5-q-a...

Best and worst players last night. See espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su... for best/worst offense and defense from last night.

In the last ten games, the Blazers have gone 9-1 and had the best defense and ninth best offense. After having the third worst defense and 4th worst offense over the prior 41. The table shows the Who - with Scoot, Simons, Camara, and Ayton dramatically improving.

From BPI, these are the unhealthiest and healthiest teams in terms of availability of quality players, relative to their opponents. Philly has added 9.5 losses due to relative unavailability of good players, DET has 4.0 extra wins by being more available. espn.com/nba/bpi

"Most inconsistent" is hard to define, but I looked at players with highest rate of having more than +3 net points or less than -3 net points (with technical details). I got this list, inspired by some of the wild numbers yesterday.

There is some talk that AD can play with Dallas' bigs like he played with Javale McGee in the 2020 Lakers playoffs. AD was indeed great then, +8.1 net points/48. But in the regular season that year, he was only +2.6 - much closer to his norm and over a longer period of time.

Fit of LeBron-Luka: We can look at how well Luka played with other alpha distributors, Kyrie Irving and Jalen Brunson (though he wasn't always alpha). Since the 19-20 season, Luka is almost equally as good with those guys, offensive net pts of +6.0 with them on, +6.8 without them.

Since Luka entered the league, he has averaged 60 games per year. In that same time, Anthony Davis has averaged 53 games per year.

How coaching matters, some upcoming work on familiarity, and more.

This is beautiful.