deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
109 posts
815 followers
42 following
Prolific Poster
Active Commenter
comment in response to
post
It's now fixed.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
comment in response to
post
Thanks. I'm not sure why yet.
comment in response to
post
Yes, both are in this metric.
comment in response to
post
The use I highlighted in identifying what went wrong in the last few games or in first quarters or when facing zones or with LeBron off - those are how I used single number metrics a lot in the league. The predictive ones help in gambling, but that's not this...yet.
comment in response to
post
That's done a bit more in Basketball Beyond Paper.
Also, I show the math behind the method of division of credit here, open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
comment in response to
post
The context is missing. It's on 3s alone and it _net_ points, which accounts for the opportunity cost.
comment in response to
post
Really loved this article! It applies to more than sports.
People who are good at intuitively understanding blame/credit apportioning are often successful at building successful teams outside of sports. People who are bad at it, fail all the time at starting/growing businesses and communities.
comment in response to
post
Yes, @javiercorrales.bsky.social , I am curious if you can predict other steps based on your history.
comment in response to
post
My understanding is that he did an interview where he suggested that the defense get the award. I only heard that (unvalidated), but I agree that his character is such that it makes it believable.
comment in response to
post
They should probably have an award for most valuable non-QB.
comment in response to
post
With respect - Hurts got his rushing touchdown on the strength of the o-line (+ push from behind). Passing TD also has credit to receiver/o-line AND to the defense!!! because it was only a 14 yd drive after an INT, due in part to pressure by Sweat.
(I stand up for defense.)
comment in response to
post
I would have voted Sweat if I could only do one.
comment in response to
post
Don't get me wrong. I do think Hurts is a good QB, a good leader, and played outstanding in the second half. But the game was over then. I am not hating on Hurts. I just think others hated on the defense - Sweat, deJean to name two. They added more win probability than any offensive player.
comment in response to
post
I'd do it, though I don't like stepping on Florence and the Machine's handle.
comment in response to
post
I'm sure internally they see the good and are wrestling with the recent bad, trying to figure out what they can do with their stars back in order to both keep the light on for this year and build for next. 11/11
comment in response to
post
The numbers aren't fully significant yet, but they're going that way. Orlando is an interesting team this year, showing heart and promise. They were 16-8 when Franz went down, fifth best team in the league, just 8-17 since then. 10/11
comment in response to
post
Why would that happen? From the outside, it's tough to know. We could dig in to find symptoms - play types, whether it's shooting, turnovers, etc. But I'm not sure we'd know the real cause, especially since the difference is biggest on D. 9/11
comment in response to
post
…Not really. The table below suggests that offensively, they're not that different, but still play better without each other. On D, the difference is dramatic, each playing better without the other. 8/11
comment in response to
post
All player metrics of significance (LEBRON, DARKO, EPM, etc) have Franz better than Banchero at this point. It made me think, though, about whether they play well together. The answer is… (7/11)
comment in response to
post
The on/off splits are much better for Franz than for Banchero at this point, on offense and defense. On D, Banchero hasn't had Suggs or Bitadze on the floor as much as Franz has, which matters, replaced by Black and Carter, respectively. 6/11