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drjeffmasters.bsky.social
Extreme weather and climate change expert writing for Yale Climate Connections. Co-founder, Weather Underground; former hurricane hunter.
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@bhensonweather.bsky.social and I on major damage occurring to science: "Large cuts at NIH and the National Science Foundation would devastate U.S. higher education, forcing thousands of layoffs and ending the education of thousands of graduate students." yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/02/cuts...

From NSF EAR program director Raleigh Martin on LinkedIn #climatesky #greensky

Cruelty might be the point, but funding for science in the US as a fraction of GDP has been remarkably stable in the US and non-partisan with the only big exceptions the Apollo Project and the 2008 recession, when spending spiked. What we are seeing is new, different and fucking scary.

IMTs are quietly talking about what the current political environment means for this year's wildland fire suppression efforts, but it deserves a larger and more public consideration. 1/

Some excellent info to be familar with, e.g., “Insurance costs are rising dramatically faster than mortgage payments. From 2013 to 2022, insurance as a percentage of mortgage payments more than doubled, rising from 7-8% to over 20% of mortgage costs.” firststreet.org/research-lib...

This is solid work. Worth remembering two things: Most professional pressures spur modelers towards conservative results. A $1.47T estimate of the brittleness bubble shouldn't be taken as an upper limit. Some losses push harder-to-predict value rises elsewhere, which will also be disruptive.

Grab your cozy blanket and a cup of hot chocolate and dig into the vigorous scientific debate about whether the melting Arctic is influencing extreme weather in North America and Eurasia. New from @bhensonweather.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/02/upda...

Project2025's ridiculous justification for privatizing the NWS: "Studies have found that the forecasts and warnings provided by the private companies are more reliable than those provided by the NWS." The footnote "proof" given is a 2020 AccuWeather press release: www.accuweather.com/en/press/lat...

Another gem from @jeffgoodell.bsky.social: "We are like dinosaurs wandering around after the meteor hit, thinking that the ash that is blocking out the sun is going to dissipate at any moment and everything will go back to normal." www.rollingstone.com/culture/cult...

Earth's 1st major landfalling tropical cyclone of 2025 was Cyclone Zelia in Western Australia. Fortunately, it hit a relatively sparsely populated area. Zelia was just the 19th Cat 4 or stronger cyclone to hit Australia since 1961. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/02/cat-...

At least 63 lawsuits have been filed against illegal executive orders since Jan. 20. I just finished attending an intense planning meeting with the board of the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, @csldf.org. We are fighting hard and could use your support. www.justsecurity.org/107087/track...

Just received an email saying that it's not advisable to include the following words in future applications for research funding to the US DOT. Here we are.

Saving the planet is not profitable enough. "Norwegian energy giant Equinor said it would halve investment in renewable energy over the next two years while increasing oil and gas production." The CEO:"we don't see the necessary profitability in the future" in renewables. www.bbc.com/news/article...

A few highlights from Jan. 2025: monthly Arctic sea ice extent was the 2nd-lowest in the 46-year satellite record; on Jan. 2, 3.7% of the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet melted--the most widespread melt event of any day in the 46-year satellite record. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/02/unex...

New Orleans hit a record high of 82F on Thursday, a little more than two weeks after the region was plastered by historic snow and cold. More here on the big Gulf Coast storm and its context: @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/02/what...

73:1 return on investment #ams2025

Good idea to protect babies from wildfire smoke: “Miller’s team found the wildfire smoke had led to lifelong physical changes. The smoke cohort had smaller and stiffer lungs that could hold roughly 20 percent less air than the lungs of the cohort not exposed as newborns.”

Excellent article by the author of the must-read book, “On the Move”: “soaring home prices in the United States may have peaked in the places most at risk, leaving the nation on the precipice of a generational decline. That’s the finding of a new analysis by the First Street Foundation.”

“January 2025 beat the prior record (Jan 2024) by a sizable margin. And unlike the prior record Januaries (2007, 2016, 2020, and 2024) there is currently no El Niño event boosting global temperatures; rather, the world is in modest La Niña conditions that should…result in lower global temperatures.”

Some good thoughts on modifying tax exemptions for muni bonds: “What if city bonds that cover geographic areas that are known to be physically risky but where the issuer has inadequate plans to adapt to climate change were granted just a portion of the exemption?”

Lots of adaptation $$ will be needed soon, and there won’t be enough for everything: “the cost of maintaining roads in just the US will increase by $100 billion a year by 2050 (in 2018 dollars), or roughly half of what state and local governments spent on roads in 2021.”

Since 1980, the length of intense TC (cat4-5) season has increased (9-14 days per decade). The lengthening trend is mainly characterized by an early onset (ENP, WNP, SI, & SP basins) whereas the North Atlantic basin exhibits a late withdrawal of season: 🌊🧪 www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5...

There is little doubt that the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires will be the costliest wildfire event in world history. A Jan. 23 analysis of insured damages, taken from 5 insurance companies, averaged $31 billion. Total damages could be up to 2x higher, according to one expert I heard from.

The World Weather Attribution group studied the devastating L.A. wildfires, concluding that human-caused climate change led to a 35% increase in their probability. Climate change could not be blamed for the Santa Ana winds, though. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/clim...

100 miles from Hurricane Helene’s floods, 170 structures were flooded since Duke Energy had to open a spillway in a reservoir it manages. Lesson: homes in the floodplain immediately down river of an overflow spillway are a bad idea; 45 of the owners may accept buyouts. www.wfae.org/energy-envir...

Watch Jedi Master Joe Romm explain how effective storytelling works youtube.com/watch?v=Bt3A... @mason4c.bsky.social @docsforclimate.bsky.social

58 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2024, 2nd-most on record. But recent steep rise in U.S. severe thunderstorm damages are 80-90% from factors other than climate change, and global drought losses were only $18 billion, below the $40-billion/yr average. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/the-...

My post yesterday, yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/the-..., discussed how 3 of the top-20 costliest weather disasters in world history occurred in 2024.

My post yesterday, yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/the-..., discussed how 3 of the top-20 deadliest heat waves in history occurred in 2024. The 9,000+ deaths during the summer heat wave in Europe ranked as 2024’s deadliest weather disaster and is the fifth-deadliest heat wave in world history.

My post yesterday, yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/the-..., discussed how the 2024 wildfires in Chile, which killed 137, were the 5th-deadliest in world recorded history.

My post yesterday, yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/the-..., talked about how 8 of the top 30 deadliest African weather disasters have occurred since 2022. Flooding in 2024 in W and Central Africa killed over 1,489. This ominous trend could well be a harbinger of the future.

New research shows more than 1.5 million people die each year from air pollution caused by wildfires: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... This supports my thesis that fossil fuels & climate change are the leading preventable cause of death worldwide. @lshtm.bsky.social @gchalliance.bsky.social

Took this pic in Pacific Palisades today. Not coincidentally, B of A is a major funder of fossil fuel expansion in the US.

$239 million (that we know of) on the 2024 election. It's Big Oil's POLLUTION that causes the warming, but it's their MONEY that keeps the pollution flowing even though *clean energy is a thing.*

A bad start to 2025: "The damage being reported from Ireland and the U.K. is indeed characteristic of a hurricane, and Storm Èowyn may well end up being Earth’s second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2025, along with the Los Angeles fires." yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/01/stor...

Historic storm for Ireland. The 115 mph gust breaks the nation’s previous all-time wind gust record of 113 mph. Mace Head reported sustained winds of 84 mph at 4 am, well above Cat 1 hurricane strength. Peak wave heights at the M3 buoy on the SW coast hit 20m (65’). #StormÉowyn

Historic storm for Ireland. The 115 mph gust breaks the nation’s previous all-time wind gust record of 113 mph. Mace Head reported sustained winds of 85 mph at 4 am, well above Cat 1 hurricane strength. Peak wave heights at the M3 buoy on the SW coast hit 20m (65’). #StormÉowyn

Max wave height at the M3 buoy on the SW coast of Ireland from #StormEowyn is up to 65’ (20m) and still rising. Significant wave height is 40’ (12m). The coast is getting a significant battering!

At buoy M6 about 200 miles west of Ireland, the pressure bottomed out at 944 mb this evening, and winds peaked at sustained 68 mph, gusting to 98 mph, at about 8:30 pm EST. Ireland buoy data here: www.marine.ie/site-area/da...