dschraff.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Political Science @AAU 🇩🇰
EU | Comparative Political Behavior | Inequality | Democratic Trust & Legitimacy
www.dominikschraff.com
www.eu-ned.com
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Interessant, danke. Was mich einfach erstaunt hat ist wie stark das Stadt-Land Gefälle alleine innerhalb der Wahlkreise ist.
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In areas falling below the district average in population density, there is a clear vote swing towards AfD and away from the Greens. There is a revised pattern for the more densely populated areas within an electoral district. Intensified urban-rural polarization, as expected survey-based research
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We can access the more fine-grained municipality level results on the Länder level. Looking at the larger state of Baden-Württemberg - so far quite resistant to the rise of the AfD - shows how AfD-Green polarization now closely follows divides in population density
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which has 25% Green and just 10% AfD in Konstanz municipality. This flips nearly symmetrically to 25% of AfD and 10% of Green support in the more rural municipalities bordering the Black Forest (to the left). So current analysis of the larger electoral districts miss this urban-rural polarization.
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Great paper by Lee et al. and an important discussion. But maybe we need to differentiate between issues arising from the availability of similarly sized spatial units vs. choice of units nested at different levels of aggregation...?
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The authors recommend to run robustness checks for alternative spatial units. We do something in our recent paper on local ethnic diversity and rally effects. Results hold on the postcode and municipality level. But what if latter would not hold? Is it MAUP or internal heterogeneity?
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One of the replications by Lee et al. replacing NUTS3 data from the Colantone & Stanig import shock study with more highly aggregated NUTS2 level data (using our EU-NED data) might not be the best evidence for the relevance of MAUP. Maybe NUTS2 areas are just too heterogenous for effects to show?
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First, I am not sure we can talk about MAUP if units are nested. Results might vary across units as more fine-grained spatial measures provide more precise information about the social environment. Consider this classic on the neighborhood effect:
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I see that Europe is anything else than ready to provide strong joint defence. But we should also be careful to not artificially make the EU smaller and Russia bigger. That plays into the hands of the wrong people
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Sehr spannend. Nur wichtig hinzuweisen, dass man Ursache und Wirkung hier nicht unterscheiden kann.
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Important points to improve the review process for quantitative papers. I found this recent @thejop.bsky.social paper really useful as well www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...