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eco-overshoot.bsky.social
Recovering economist. Overshoot is our real predicament, and the reality is much worse than most think. My substack: https://substack.com/@predicament
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Based on carbon budgets from Lamboll et al www.nature.com/articles/s41... - updated to January 2025, the global rate for cutting CO2 inline with a 50% chance of not exceeding 1.5°C is ~19% year on year. For "well below 2°C" its ~7% each year; i.e. a technology revolution AND profound social change.

Evening Ian.

Those dystopian books we read in school are looking less like fiction and more like a blueprint. No wonder they’re being banned—they want to keep us in the dark.

Last month was the warmest January on record globally! Outside of the contiguous United States, most continental land regions were much warmer than average. Summary of the month at climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-... using @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 data.

+1.75°C above pre-industrial! 🥵 January 2025 for Europe was 2.51°C above 1991-2020!

Arctic sea-ice extent fell again yesterday and is now over 400,000 square kilometers below the previous record daily low for Feb. 2. The heat is on!

Red = lowest ecological integrity. Ireland has the great honour of being probably *the* most ecologically trashed nation in all Europe. 🏆 🏆 🏆

Climate and ecological breakdown are direct consequences of fossil capital’s capture of our culture and politics. Voting and buying “green” will not get us out of this deathtrap system.

#collapse #overshoot

“What should give us reason to keep fighting is the fact that we still have choices. Choices about how we face collapse and how we act as it unfolds. We should work to reduce suffering, to create a more controlled and less chaotic descent.”

We’re doubling down on fossil fuels and environmental destruction with plans like Project 2025. It’s not a plan, it’s a death sentence. It’s a tragedy. It's a stunning, heartbreaking failure of leadership and humanity itself.

Cuba has for years been a classic measured country able to function at a one planet lifestyle ... unlike North America ... source Global Footprint Network

International Law is officially dead, by the West's own hand: The Polish PM declared he will ensure the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Netanyahu's arrest will be ignored when he visits Poland. Meanwhile US Congress imposed sanctions on ICC officials.

Shocking, and also, makes no difference. Net Zero is impossible for many reasons, but for one, 8 billion humans cannot exist without severe consequences on the biosphere. At least these crooks stopped pretending.

Another new record daily low for Arctic sea-ice extent yesterday. Extent is now over 300,000 square kilometers below the previous record low for the day. That's five-for-five in '25!

Happy arbitrary date event!

The truth is that a comforting vision of the future now requires defying the fundamental laws of physics, biology, and ecology. We’re on a collision course, and we’re not even trying to hit the brakes.

Humanity's unsustainable trajectory: growth, consumption, and ecological overshoot unraveling our future in a dangerously finite world.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

"our civilization seems to be doing something different. Populations are already starting to decline in developed nations, but it’s not because we’re running out of food or water. In fact, people are fatter than ever, spending most of their lives trying to lose weight."

Terrible idea. Still talking about costs as if money will have any value on a scorched planet. Fucking idiots. We’re not going to make it

The more obvious the crisis becomes, the less people seem able to imagine a different way of living. Instead of scaling back our unsustainable consumption, reducing energy demands, and focusing on conservation, we keep doubling down on growth as if that’s the only way forward.

#fossilheads

We talk as if it is still 2014 or something? #TalkCollapse france24.com/en/environme... ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-...

We've entered the Era of Consequences. All this additional heat will translate to higher temperatures, faster sea level rise and more extreme weather. Mostly over the Northern Hemisphere, where 7 out of 8 billion people live. academic.oup.com/oocc/article...

The average person's reaction to this headline: "It's only 1/3 and I'll be dead by then anyway." Part of the reason we're screwed is because people don't know how to think long term or see the big picture. #climatechange #massextinction

Great scene

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is vital to Europe’s mild climate. When it weakens or collapses, the UK/Ireland will face extreme weather: colder winters, hotter summers, and disrupted growing seasons. I asked my #permaculture design course teachers; what can we do? 1/4 #AMOC