econberger.bsky.social
Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
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Grand Meow Tarkin
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I haven’t done it, but it’d be interesting to use the occupational composition of this sector (from OEWS) to see whether it’s just currently mapping to shrinking segments of the economy
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I don’t have a really precise causal theory but it I think it has to do with this relationship - temp help stock 1st derivative <=> hiring flow 1st derivative
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I agree - in fact, I think you start seeing that structural effect (glut of college grads) in the late 2010s. it's now being compounded by cyclical effects...
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It’s not as bad as the aftermath of 2009 - but it’s already as bad as at any point after the 2001 recession.
I’m squinting really hard at that leveling out in the right hand corner as far as the 1st derivative. Could be just a temporary pause in an ongoing ascent
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3/ Until recently youngsters with Associate's Degrees have been in a sort of sweet spot - not experiencing the same deterioration as people with higher or lower educational attainment.
But that is changing - they are also feeling the chill of a weak hiring environment.
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2/ A similar pattern for the challenging job market faced by recent high school grads (which is underreported!!!):
It's bad, but not getting worse for people in their late 10s.
But continues to creep up for people in their early 20s.
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BTW, the meta behind it is:
The monthly jobs report incorporates data from two surveys, one of businesses, one of households. The business survey is the one experiencing the negative revisions; the household survey (source of the unemployment rate, labor force participation, etc) is immune to them
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75,000 people - it's a very small number in the aggregate
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I suppose that's true! But also true that if you and I were policymakers, we'd be getting pretty nervous about pulling more "weaken the economy" levers :)
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Revisions are incorporated into the charts where they are relevant. The revisions you are talking about don't affect the unemployment rate, the share of prime working age Americans with a job, the labor force participation rate...
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13/ A selection of manufacturing subsectors where we might see tariff impacts... computers & electronic products and electrical equipment/ appliances/ components are where it's most obvious.
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12/ The pre-tariff jump in transportation sector workweeks may be starting to unwind.
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11/ Shorter-duration unemployment has been on the rise over the past 6 months, which isn't necessarily a good thing... (though I could be attaching too much meaning to small wiggles)
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Yes, M-M changes in CPS counts are very noisy and contain little informational content
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Speculating idly here, but I wonder if this gap will get bigger post-benchmark - drying labor supply forcing some of these establishments to close.
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10/ Biggest industry employment declines: temp agencies (-20K), manufacturing (-8K), retail (-6.5K)
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9/ Biggest industry employment gains: healthcare & social assistance (+78K), leisure & hospitality (+48K), financial activities (+13K)
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8/ The wage growth trend is at or a little below 4% annualized, though May's M/M was on the stronger side.
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7/ Nothing that interesting in the average private sector workweek data (though I'll be looking at industry detail a little later...)
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6/ The "re-entrant unemployment rate" rose to 1.34%, its highest level since the fall of 2021. A lot of recent college graduates fall into this bucket (if they ever had previous work experience...)
Job leaver unemployment rate at 0.41%, the lowest it's been in over 4 years.
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5/ The share of the labor force working part-time for economic reasons declined in May (a bit of good news in the report) though it remains a little higher than it was a year ago and just generally seems on a mild up-trend.
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4/ Same with prime working age labor force participation... was down to 83.4% in May, but overall just moving sideways.
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3/ The employment population ratio was at 80.5% in May, and is zig-zagging a little below its cyclical peak.
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2/ The unemployment rate is slowly creeping up, right along the track the Fed anticipated in March.
Was 4.244%, just shy of an unfavorable rounding.
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Yes
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