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economicsofwar.bsky.social
Working in some of the more entertaining economies around the World. I focus upon the economic aspects of current conflicts including: #Myanmar #Sahel #Ukraine #Russia #NorthKorea #Syria #Yemen #Sudan #Libya #Moldova #Belarus
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The closure of banks in #Sittwe is a sign that the Arakan Army offensive is highly likely to begin in earnest. Banks are reluctant to close, a reluctance that is partly due to political and regulatory pressure governments impose due to the significant negative impact on the local economy. #Myanmar

submitted 17 hours ago • 0 comments

French corporations in the #Sahel continue to withdraw from the region, with Total selling its remaining assets in Burkina Faso. This is partly due to anti-French sentiment, however primarily due to the worsening security and economic climate under the Sahel juntas.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

The UN issued a warning as to the stability of #Libya as the country remains divided between two rival administrations. Economic divisions remain at the heart of the dispute, yet also offer the best chance at cohesion as those in the private sector disinterested in politics seek to do business.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

The fight for Bhamo risks resembling the fight for Maungdaw.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Through playing all sides in the conflict in #Myanmar, whilst having one of the largest non-state armies in the World, the #UWSA (United Wa State Army) are able to significantly expand the Wa economy despite the economic demise of the rest of the country. Chinese investment and trade is key.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

The Junta in #Myanmar passed a law allowing private military contractors to provide security within the country. This law is aimed at China, who have been in discussions with the Junta on forming a PMC since late last year to protect strategic assets. Expect this to extend to policing.

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

The Moscow Exchange has had a substantial rally since the US election, one that continues with the prospect of a cessation of hostilities. This is premised upon the prospect of a rapid decline in spending from the Kremlin, though the level of bond payments may leave spending high for some time.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

#NorthKorea is tainting open source software with malware in a bid to steal crypto-currency. In 2024, North Korea was responsible for an estimated 61% of global crypto-currency theft.

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

A very good article from "The Conversation" that outlines the interests of different countries engaged in the conflict in Eastern Congo. #M23 have reportedly entered Bukavu, which may result in the entire DRC-Rwanda border being controlled by M23.

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

The Central Bank of #Russia maintains the key rate at 21%. Given increasing inflation pressure, it is possible they've hit a political ceiling, as no doubt they'd prefer an increase. Without the ability to further dampen demand, inflation is likely to persist and possibly continuing growing.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Reports from those recently released from scam centres in #Myanmar make it clear the active role the #DKBA have in the trade, and that the majority of such centres remain operating. The Thai's need to keep up the pressure, however ultimately need the #KNU to take over DKBA territory.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

That the stock-market in #Russia surged on the news of the mere possibility of peace talks is a strong signal that the War on #Ukraine conducted by the Kremlin has strong negative impacts on the Russian economy.

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

#M23 in Congo are on the march, capturing Goma and most of North Kivu Province. #Rwanda has strong economic incentives to support M23, notably in mineral extraction which can be added to Rwanda's existing mineral exports.

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Wealthy citizens of #Myanmar are buying real estate in Thailand in large numbers. This is primarily capital flight as the real estate market in much of Myanmar is facing a collapse in demand. The confidence of those tied to the Junta does not appear high.

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Poor governance from the #Sahel juntas is seeing a resurgence in economic migrants into #Libya. The lack of control both Tripoli and Basra have over the South of Libya makes the Sahara crossing particularly dangerous for migrants. Further mass killings are a real possibility.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

As the war drags on, more of the #Ukraine diaspora will put down firmer roots and will find it increasingly difficult to return for the post-war recovery. Hence will likely be an influx of foreign skilled labour, and this needs to be planned as they will be coming into traumatised communities.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

The disconnection of the Baltic's energy grid from that of Russia & Belarus provides these states with a measure of protection against economic pressure that the Kremlin showed willingness to use. Interestingly, this is more a result of Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine than more recent actions.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

The need for #Thailand to act on scam centres operating in #Myanmar highlights the unwillingness of the Junta and its allies to deal with the problem. For a cash-strapped Junta, such criminal enterprises are a boon. Thailand needs to hold the Junta allied DKBA to account.

submitted 16 days ago • 2 comments

The erosion of public governance under the juntas of the #Sahel has seen a resurgence of the business of migrant smuggling, once again a significant part of the informal economies of the Sahara. Whilst the impact has yet to be felt in Europe, the surge in numbers in Libya bodes ill for that country

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments