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fhublet.bsky.social
Computer scientist and political analyst, or vice-versa Editor-in-chief Electoral Bulletins of the European Union (BLUE) Contributor @grandcontinent.bsky.social Doctoral candidate @ethzurich.bsky.social Here in 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 and more
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After the AfD's surge on Sunday, far right parties are the most voted-for of any grouping in Europe, for the first time in history: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

submitted 9 days ago • 52 comments

— Service reminder 🔔 — This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Gone is the GroKo. #Bundestagswahl2025

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

Wir präsentieren: Der Wagenknecht-Tracker. Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert. #Bundestagswahl2025 datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/

submitted 13 days ago • 9 comments

Clear patterns in the youngest and oldest 🇩🇪 cohorts On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted: 🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted: ⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

First data pouring in right now in @grandcontinent.bsky.social as 🇩🇪 is counting. Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.

submitted 14 days ago • 11 comments

25% kam aus Österreich, 30% von den 500 reichsten deutschen Familien, 5% aus dem Osten Deutschlands, und nur 2% von Spenderinnen. Mit C. Kleine haben wir für @grandcontinent.bsky.social die Großspenden im Wahlkampf unter die Lupe genommen 👇 #Bundestagswahl2025 legrandcontinent.eu/de/2025/02/2...

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya” In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇 #Bundestagswahl2025

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

A lot of speculation why Trump is doing what he is. As I told @kyivindependent.com @chrisdyork.bsky.social on Thurs, there’s 3 options 1. Putting Europeans on notice (unlikely) 2. Splitting Russia from China (misguided) 3. Embracing the Dark side (nightmare). kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-...

submitted 15 days ago • 24 comments

“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya” In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇 #Bundestagswahl2025

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Notre prochain mardi du Grand Continent à @normalesup.bsky.social portera sur les élections allemandes. Avec @guillaumeduval.bsky.social, @fhublet.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @vdubslaff.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @pmennerat.bsky.social. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenement...

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

In the 2024 campaign, Musk donated $288M. You may think this was a major investment. It wasn't. $288M is 0.066% of Musk's wealth, akin to a $74 donation for a median U.S. household. Musk's only trick: His wealth is 4 million times higher than the median. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

DeepSeek's censorship of Taiwanese independence goes brrr: “The Basque Country is an inseparable part of China” 👇 [NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

So far Merz's move has had little demoscopic effect. It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right. This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments

Self-proclaimed minimal-state advocates promoting authoritarian rule. Self-proclaimed free-market capitalists putting the richest of their kind in power. Self-proclaimed libertarians cracking down on academic freedom. Trumpism may be to liberalism what Stalinism was to socialism.

submitted 35 days ago • 1 comment

As far as I know, this is absolutely unprecedented in recent decades in any democratically ruled polity. Well-accepted *scientific* concepts being censored away from and by a government-affiliated body.

submitted 35 days ago • 0 comments

Here is what Germany's regional coalitions could look like were the CDU/CSU to abandon their “firewall” policy vis-à-vis the AfD. Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

Etwa so könnte die neue politische Dystopie aussehen, falls die #Brandmauer heute wirklich wegfallen würde. Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

Durchaus bemerkenswert, welche Konfliktlinien sich da innerhalb Springers auftun und dass die Redaktion (+Leitung) der WELT zumindest in Teilen noch rechter ist als die der BILD.

submitted 62 days ago • 7 comments

🗳️🇦🇹 En Autriche, le président Alexander van der Bellen (Verts) vient d'ouvrir la porte au premier chancelier d’extrême droite depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Voici la traduction et le commentaire de son discours👇 legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/0...

submitted 62 days ago • 0 comments

Value change is real, but the perennial question remains: are these age or cohort differences? 🇺🇸

submitted 65 days ago • 0 comments

The first complete dataset on European elections over the whole continent, made by the @BLUE_GEG_org team. Check it out!

submitted 65 days ago • 0 comments

2 elections. 90k municipalities. Over 500 parties. 5.3M data points. Today, we are releasing the first-ever dataset of local-level results of European Parliament elections. A short 🧵on our new #BLUE_EP dataset. t.co/eatnzauFSU

submitted 65 days ago • 1 comment

🇫🇷🗳️ Évolution du nombre de ministres par région 👇 📈 Les gagnantes Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 1 → 2 Corse : 0 → 1 Normandie : 1 → 2 📉 Les perdantes Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 4 → 0 Centre-Val-de-Loire : 2 → 0 🟰 Stable Île-de-France : 4 → 4

submitted 75 days ago • 0 comments

🗺️🗳️ Si le gouvernement Bayrou est moins parisien que l'ex-gouvernemental Attal, il est loin d'être méridional : François Bayrou est seul issu de la France d'oc 👇

submitted 75 days ago • 0 comments

🗺️🏅 Very happy to announce that our paper Where the Borders Lie: Mapping Cross-Border Communities in 10 Western European Countries co-authored with Aurore Sallard @ethzurich.bsky.social has received a 2024 Fred Burggraf Paper Award! journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....

submitted 78 days ago • 0 comments

Let these data sink in while we ponder on the bien fondé of the Romanian Constitutional Court’s decision @grandcontinent.bsky.social

submitted 92 days ago • 1 comment

🗳️🇷🇴 Here is how the Romanian diaspora voted 👇 🟠 Georgescu (far-right) wins 🇩🇪🇬🇧🇮🇹🇧🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸🇮🇪 🔵 Lasconi (liberal) wins 🇲🇩, East, Paris, Berlin, 🇳🇱🇸🇪🇵🇹 🟢 Kelemen (Hungarian minority party) wins 🇭🇺

submitted 100 days ago • 1 comment