glcarlstrom.bsky.social
Middle East correspondent at The Economist.
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In private, though, does anyone think the Saudis or Emiratis are sad to see the IRGC decapitated? Iran has spent decades destabilizing Arab states and fomenting chaos. Its neighbors might be afraid of it—but don't confuse that for genuine friendship or support in the region.
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The Gulf reconciliation with Iran was basically a protection racket: paying off the local mob boss so nobody burns down your store. That's also why Saudi Arabia was so quick to condemn Israel's strikes on Iran this morning, and why most (if not all) other Gulf states will follow.
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That goes for Gulf states too. There's been some baffling commentary in recent months (e.g. here in @ForeignAffairs) about how they no longer perceive Iran as a major threat. It confuses a tactical rapprochement with a genuine warming of relations. www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/new-b...
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The dilemma for Trump is that the stunt works exactly once. If it doesn't unblock the negotiations—which, from the outside, do seem genuinely stuck on the issue of enrichment—then you have to choose between following through on your threats or devaluing them
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"Still, even among those pressing for diplomacy, there is concern about the president's penchant for changing his mind depending on who he’s last spoken to. There's a fear Trump... could act on rhetoric many largely deem negotiating bravado." www.politico.com/news/2025/06...
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Was Huckabee freelancing a bit? Hard to imagine Trump getting this deep in the weeds of Israeli politics. And it wouldn't be the first time a Trump ambassador to Israel was out of step with the president (e.g. David Friedman and annexation).
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I'm curious to see how this will play in Trumpworld. The isolationist wing dislikes Netanyahu (for obvious reasons) and distrusts Huckabee (he's a neocon). The latter intervening to help the former—supposedly because of "the Iranian issue", no less—won't go over well
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"Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a bank, warn that trade uncertainty has increased, rather than decreased, as a consequence of the court's decision. Unless Mr Trump has a light-bulb moment of his own, America's importers will be doing business in the dark." www.economist.com/finance-and-...
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Trump, April 7: "shouldn't be that long" until a new Gaza deal
Trump, April 25: "very close" to a trade deal with Japan
Trump, April 26: Russia and Ukraine are "very close to a deal"
All of those remarks made headlines—but more than a month later, none of those deals are done
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The Biden administration wasted a year trying to "bridge the gaps" and accomplished nothing. If Trump is serious about a deal it requires pressure on Netanyahu to end his forever war, not "wordsmithing" www.axios.com/2025/05/28/g...
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And yet nonetheless Ron Dermer comes along and says listen, if you keep doing these symbolic shows of displeasure, we're going to do something that will really force you to treat us like pariahs www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
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"The movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise" sounds like... business as usual? And you don't need to intercept Israeli communications to know they're "considering such a move". They say it in public!
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"The scheme hews closely to ideas considered and abandoned by the Israeli military over the past year — including as recently as last month. These revolved around creating cleared 'sterile' zones devoid of Hamas where aid could be distributed." www.ft.com/content/ae19...