hpschneider.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Sorry.... axis is days until advance quarter gdp release

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Before jumping too heavily on the negative GDPNow bandwagon, worth a note... still a month and a lot of data left in q1

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

in thinking abut Musk/bezos and Twitter/wapo worth recalling how it went down…Graham approached him hoping to get the paper some financial runway…Not obvious it was top of mind for bezos in 2013…

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Sad over Bezos’ seeming lack of curiosity and stomach for debate. @washingtonpost.com and Shipley deserve better. But beyond that the first leg of the Bezos freedom doctrine — “Freedom is ethical — it minimizes coercion….” — needs work. “Minimizes” I suppose allows for things like traffic laws 1/4

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Isn’t this kinda the World Bank’s thing? Public dollars lever private? Has the social entrepreneurship space delivered?

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

The formation of a Fed-focused task force flew a bit under the radar when Rep. French Hill announced it. It could be a pretty broad exercise according to the head, Oklahoma's Lucas, that will ask fundamental questions and run alongside the Fed's own framework review....

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

More evidence we are reliving the 1900s…my old bank is being turned into a gin distillery. Tell em Seabiscuit sent you…

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

I suppose these can both be true, but...: ATL's Bostic today: "Longer-term inflation expectations, typically a guide to future inflation, are mostly at healthy levels..." STL's Musalem: "The University of Michigan survey shows some firming of longer-term consumer inflation expectations..."

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Fed minutes from January: "Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs."

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

I guess it was implicit in Barr's decision but interesting Trump's EO on independent agencies has sidestepped (for now?) any fight with the Fed over monpol....Says the EO "shall not apply" to the Fed on monpol but shall apply "only in connection" with its supervision and regs roles.

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

It isn't just the dollars and cents of tariffs that concern the Fed. The extended debate, the possibility of multiple rounds, the uncertainty, could shock inflation expectations in a way that forces a response... #econsky

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

People hate inflation...They hate volatility too, and the paper here puts a price tag on what people would trade in consumption to tamp it down...Stability as a public good? Something to ponder with so much U.S. policy up in the air... www.nber.org/papers/w3347...

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

The Fed's knot over tariffs via 2 Trump appointees on Monday: Bowman- "It will be very important to have a better sense of these policies...and establish greater confidence about how the economy will respond." Waller- "Waiting for economic uncertainty to dissipate is a recipe for policy paralysis."

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

So is Canola now going to be Americola?

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Between lawmaker comments and Powell's response sounds like they are throwing the VC for supervision position out the window...Powell saying the board can do it fine, and vesting it in a person led to volatility in policy that "is not great..."

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Time will tell, as the say....

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Beyond the headline CPI, that this is driven by shelter, food and energy hits all the stuff that really helps drive consumer expectations...Not sure how many months of Michigan or NY Fed SCE surveys will put the Fed on tilt but it is worth asking...

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

With High Prices Persisting, Trump Tempers Tone on Slaying Inflation www.nytimes.com/2025/02/12/b...

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

Inflation at 8:30...Fed's Powell in the House at 10...Yesterday's Senate hearing seemed to put monetary policy on the sidelines with so much else to ask (is my money safe?)

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Super Bowl morning after and I am still surprised less by the score than the use of Depeche Mode in the Jesus ad...Another case of not listening to the lyrics ("Born in the USA" and "Rockin' in the Free World" being among the most malapropped)?

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

close out the Biden years at 4%…Fed is not going to rush from here and for Trump the issue is how to make things better without risking a crackup in either direction…. @reuters #econsky

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Back at 4% U....Rise has been arrested, which does not happen often...What's next? www.reuters.com/graphics/USA...

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

This is Chair Powell (ex Wall St., ex TSY, ex Carlyle) at a central banks and diversity meeting in 2021: "The best and most successful organizations are often the ones that have a strong and persistent commitment to diversity and inclusion. These organizations consistently attract the best talent."

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

Wait no constitutional crisis?

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

also more sign of the stabilization in the job market Powell et all point to...the jobs/unemployed ratio been pretty sideways for six months or so...

submitted 27 days ago • 1 comment

JOLTS today puts the opening rate right at the tipping point of 4.5 that Fed's Waller estimates for rising unemployment...Beveridge Curve solidly back to pre-pandemic terrain... @reuters.com #econsky

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

Former ATL Fed president Dennis Lockhart, Navy and business veteran, etc...says his message to Trump would be simple: "Don't screw up a good thing."

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

Well-timed from Autor/Dorn et al...trade shocked places recovered jobs...Trade shocked people not so much: "Incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

I can see the Fed looking through tariffs as a one time adjustment. But combine it with retaliation and add a fiscal shock, a payments shock, and an uncertainty/expectations shock and wonder if inflation ends up the least of their worries. ZLB lives?

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments