humblestudent.bsky.social
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Even Serbia(!) voted for the resolution
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ICYMI: Astonishing that Singapore, which is one of the most pro-US countries in Asia, would say this in an open forum
theindependent.sg/us-now-viewe...
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The 30-year Treasury yield doesn't seem to be buying that story. Hard to believe that the Trump Administration could succeed with global financial repression.
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We've seen this movie before:
Marcos in the Philippines
Suharto in Indonesia
Mubarak in Egypt
One of my ancestors was the brother of the governor of Canton (now Guangzhou), but nothing lasts forever.
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bsky.app/profile/meid...
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Will the real stock market please stand up?
humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2025/02/will...
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Fortunately, Canada's federal GDP/GDP (blue line) is tame compared to the US (red dotted line). So it's not a total catastrophe, trade war or no trade war.
Most of the debt is at the provincial and household level, but that's another story and beyond Ottawa's control.
/End
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Former NDP Ontario premium Bob Rae once said something to the effect of "If you don't take care of the poor, one day they will come and take it away from you."
At a minimum, equality of opportunity matters. But it doesn't address the productivity problem.
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The NDP hasn't addressed the productivity problem. Their main focus is on how to cut up the pie. I do have some sympathy with that position...
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Government capex is already high by historical standards. Can anyone within the Conservative Party explain why it should be higher to invest in market distorting subsidies for Alberta?
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Why does Alberta deserve market distorting subsidies? Is that any different from letting the Bloc dictate what the Rest of Canada should do? Philosophically, how is that any different from the NDP push for dental care?
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For example, exporting uranium doesn't require pipelines
Conservatives have allowed that some pipelines may not be economic and need government funding. What happened to the Party's free market credentials?
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The Conservative's main solution to the productivity problem is to axe the carbon tax and create a resource-exporting superpower.
Even if you believe climate change isn't real, pipeline building mostly benefits Alberta, what do Ontario, Quebec, BC, and other provinces get?
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Here's why I am disappointed by my political choices. The Trudeau Liberals, elected in 2015, enjoyed a prolonged period of negative real rates. It was a Golden Age when the market paid you to borrow, but the Liberals squandered that opportunity and piled on unproductive debt.
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The real solution is to crash the housing market, but that would be political suicide. Instead, we get these half-baked measures of building more housing, lower development costs, more rental stock, etc.
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Canadian politicians at the federal and provincial levels turned blind eyes to the money laundering and fund flows. It was hoped that all the foreign money would bring growth and employment, but it didn't. Instead, ppl were trading houses like penny stocks.
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Canadian residential RE became financialized. After the US GFC collapse, Canadians (and Aussies) continued to pile into RE, buoyed by a combination of offshore money, low rates, and a stampede by locals to cash into the bubble.
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Moan all you want about innovation, taxation, etc. Low productivity can be mainly attributed to most of Canadian capex going into residential housing, which created a bubble.
Non-res capex flat, res capex rising (until it recently cratered in Ontario)
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Canada suffers from a productivity problem. It cannot be strictly blamed on the Trudeau government, because the productivity divergence began well before he won, though he did little to address it.
It began just before the GFC.