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Ingleson-Grey Notes
https://open.substack.com/pub/tominglesongrey?r=1ix0um&utm_medium=ios
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Renewal2030 not looking promising, lads.
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Some EU diplomats still cling to the hope that Trumpās stance may soften (incredibly naively imho), but it would be shocking to cave & side with the US, here who themselves are now quasi-siding with Russia.
Again, not necessarily consequential, but symbolic of a deep fracture of transatlantic ties.
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Oh no, itās gonna be this guy isnāt it?
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āHeās a Protestant ladies and gentlemen, not a Catholic at allā
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I donāt even think itās that much strategy imho, the only way Trump may possibly be pro-NATO is if the rest of the alliance dump a very large sum of money back to the US.
Itās a very Orbanist style of governing - blackmail and bribes.
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I guess he wonāt, only to be able to extend an olive branch/off-ramp to the US if the time ever came.
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Tusk and Poland need to be viewed as equal partners in whatever takes shape, and I think Merz (whoās pledged to cooperate even closer with Poland) absolutely gets that.
Big question for me is the UK, whether Starmer would ever actually admit the scale of challenge in repriotising domestic defence.
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Big question for Germany, France and the UK with their strained fiscal positions and relatively flat economies:
Will each commit to return to Cold War levels of defence investment, but also pledge to deploy it as a peacekeeping force in Ukraine?
Because that is really all that matters now.
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Proof is in the pudding, a big funding increase and procurement reform pudding anyway (god that was awful).
Pointless to give endless press conferences exclaiming the alliance is dead without a) increasing defence and b) actually committing it, wholeheartedly, to deployment as a peacekeeping force
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It does set the stakes for what Macron and Starmer believe they can get from Trump this week, or whether it is only to confirm the worst. Frankly Iām not sure either will leave DC any clearer (or optimistic).
Merz clearly believes weāve met a threshold that he can say NATO is effectively redundant.
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I hope not, the last time they tried it was awful.
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Exit poll data.
Why history matters in one incredible image
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Anyway, incumbents falling seems to have carried on from 2024.
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Not going to pretend Iām suddely well-versed in domestic German politics, but I know just enough to see that this result is messy.
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Fair to say whatever the result, itās going to seismic for a whole bunch of reasons - seems the electorate have also realised that.
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Labourās backing of the previous governmentās commitment on Ukraine and defence (on the whole anyway) also makes Badenochās position trickier.
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Absolutely. Labourās biggest enemy appears to be themselves right now (evergreen post, I know)
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Frankly, Iām surprised Labour havenāt made more vicious attacks on the Tories defence record. Perhaps they will, they would certainly have every right to and I think ārebuilding the armed forcesā because of Conservative mismanagement might play well.
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Genius LOTO play by making it actually easier, or at least more defensible, for the government to raise taxes for this.
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I mean, itās secondary really to what Hegseth is saying - they want a military unbound by law and totally loyal not to pledges to their country but to one person.
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Lisa Nandy is announcing Ā£270mn in arts grants whilst telling everyone wokes have killed art.
Wes Streeting is announcing useful improvements to the NHS app whilst calling doctors lazy.
The AI strategy is to copy the EU but to tell everyone we're copying the US.
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Irony is that Bessent lays out makings of something which Ukr could accept, for present/future arms. Again, US admin has made clear this is not for future security.
The entire ethos of Trumpās govt is against promoting āmutually advantageous relationsā with anyone (seemingly aside from Russia).
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Bessent may dress this fragrantly imperialist deal as much as he likes, but Trump has made it more than clear what this.
The US views ownership of potentially trillions of $ of Ukrainian resources as reparations, against a democracy which was attacked unprovoked by an dictatorship.
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I had a lecture on whips that explained there were basically 6 techniques for whipping:
- Tit for tat
- Private members support
- A night off
- Talking down
- Careful pairing
- Committee/cabinet roles
There was also blackmail, threats, and physical violence, but those don't score points in the exam
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Iāll likely read it and even laugh at a few tidbits, but judging by what weāve seen so far (and by other whips books) Iāll finish with a profound sense of āwtf is wrong with these peopleā
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I think the jovial reviews of Hartās book so far are indicative of the problem.
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Agree here which is why, if they did exert any sufficient influence in 2019, their expulsion would have been death knell stuff for the party (at that time) - rather than just a defeatist shrug of the shoulders.
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ā¦ I think one of the red flags about the current situation is that the logic fits. The centre-right is temperamentally inclined to accept what the hard right says about culture war, to believe that it has identified a problem to solve, and that the discussion (if there is one) is about solutionsā¦