jeremydmayer.bsky.social
Associate professor of political science at George Mason University in Virginia, USA. Father of Nikko, lover of books, politics, theater, music, and similar stuff.
275 posts
88 followers
50 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
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Very much deserved. The students love you!
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Because I’m DOOooom…Doomscrolling!
(To the tune FreeFallin”)
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I assume it’s a bold mashup of coding and David Bowie?
Political science is getting interesting.
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I'm saying this with love, but delete your account.
I mean, butt delete your account, like accidentally sit on your keyboard and find out you deleted your account.
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The Detroit Recaptured Methanes
The California Tidal Power
The Honolulu Thermal
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Well at least...our reality TV Nero is a damn entertaining fiddler, and this is a really fuel-rich Rome to watch burn to the ground.
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What if the tech bro vision of the sources of economic wealth has more truth to it than we might like?
This is why neo-monarchical views of power are gaining currency among some elites in Silicon Valley. What's so great about democracy anyway, if the sources of wealth are clicks and AI?
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Read Brooks today in the NYT...is either of those remotely true today? Or watch a minute of Fox News.
Also, the nature of our economy has to be one in which freedom, civil society, universities, research...predict greater productivity. What if that's no longer true, or not as true as it once was?
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The hope has always been that the interests of the ruler will align more with the common citizen in a democracy than in a dictatorship.
But citizens have to hold the elites accountable for misalignment, so the people need to have a basic level of rationality and a source of objective information.
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And the truth shall set you free....
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I think this one is the most appropriate for the moment. It's midway between your two options. Reznor is older and more jaded, but still fighting...https://youtu.be/vQRmCy6LfjI?si=1_ZXt_PrHvgut4IX
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Also…the second highest the Swiss franc has been against the dollar is…this morning
Dollar has been dropping since tariffs got real.
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But...it's definitely worth worrying about.
And I'm sure Trump has the best macro economists in the world advising him, to prevent this catastrophe...um...yeah.
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Technology probably can facilitate some solution, but investors are...cautious. They aren't going to rush into some new basket unless it comes with guarantees. Multilateralism without the US...really hard to do.
So we come back to Switzerland, I think? There are vast problems with that.
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Of course, the EU will be lobbying for the Euro, so that could happen, over Russian objections. But they are so small and isolated now, economically, the Euro could win.
Or the long foreseen BASKET of currencies, drop the Yen in there, maybe the Yuan, the franc, pound, and the Euro...
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When the GOP flirted with forcing the US into default in 2011. Investors fled to Swiss francs (among others).
A consortium of China, Russia, Brazil...maybe even Canada, UK...could just say--hey, screw this Trump buffoon.
Let's go Swiss.
They won't pick Euro, because too political?
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Now, that's risky for China, and for the world. It might fail. China's currency is no stable replacement (there's no rule of law there, either!)
What else might happen? Hey--the Swiss Franc is a small currency, but it's ridiculously stable. The highest it's been against the $ in 20 years was...
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China is PISSED. They aren't backing down. They hold HUGE amounts of dollar denominated debt.
What if they just...dump it.
All of it.
At once.
If you think US treasuries are a bad investment, it pays to be first mover.
China could create a run on our debt, and then...on the dollar.
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When you owe the world $36 trillion, the current size of the debt, it matters if that debt is owed and denominated in YOUR currency.
You have so many more options, fiscally and politically, than if it is denominated in someone else's money.
So ready for some nightmare scenarios?
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Most Americans have NO idea how important that it is to their lives, and to US power.
It's the dollar's power that allows our economic sanctions to have such bite.
It gives us power over banking and transactions that we aren't actually part of directly.
More importantly--it lets us NOT be Argentina.
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Trump was awful on the debt in and out of office. His plans for tax cuts are toxic poison, really stupid cuts. He's not actually cutting the budget in smart ways either.
So add all four things up--what do you get?
A decline in the $, not just in VALUE, but the linked status as THE world currency.
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It's almost a certainty. If country X sponsors enough golf tournament at Trump properties, buys enough Trump crypto or TruthSocial stock...they'll get a sweetheart deal.
The 4th and perhaps worst way Trump is bad for the dollar--he's likely to default on the debt. Or even just explode it terribly.
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Trump represents a profound challenge to the idea that America is governed by the rule of law, across a whole spectrum of activities, but economic ones also.
Think particular companies, countries, and products are going to get special deals by means of corruption from Trump as tariffs persist?
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Third, investors care about the rule of law. The rule of law leads to profits for investors, and gives them reassurance that their money is safe.
It's why Russian oligarchs don't keep their money in Russia if they can possibly get it to the US, Switzerland, UK, or EU...
Rule of law.
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Second, the tariff moves are so chaotic, so crushingly stupid, that they will contribute to a loss of confidence in American wisdom. Investors don't care about human rights, democracy, all that folderol.
They care about the safety of their investments. Is the government stable?