joelsuss.ft.com
Data journalist, Financial Times | Visiting Fellow, London School of Economics
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Yes that makes a lot of sense, and indeed the Atl Fed decomposition shows this being driven by next exports dropping precipitously
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Don’t forget China too!
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Yes I think you are most likely right… I’m holding on to little string of hope that this means will defend free trade in the true sense of the phrase and against current mercantilist Trump admin, but recent Bezos editorial interventions and Trump appeasement suggests otherwise
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That could very well be, and I don’t hold out much hope that he will not interfere frequently in editorial decisions, but the right wing stance on trade has changed decidedly to one that is more mercantilist, less free trade
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Of course companies elsewhere also talking a lot about trade risk, especially in Canada and Mexico
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Yes, one absolutely great hockey game, and one where the players were — like you — totally ignoring the fact that the leader of one of those countries would like to annex the other, and probably said as much to the players just before the game
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Nice to be able to ignore what’s happening around you, no biggie
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Tell that to the US president, who called the US team before the game, and to his press secretary, who said “we look forward to the US beating our soon-to-be 51st state, Canada”. I guess you’re outraged that they would politicise hockey, or just me for being glad Canada won in the face of this?
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Not a hockey fan?
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Here's a nice interactive figure from the piece showing relative superforecasters v the market since 2024: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...