jonatomic.bsky.social
Director, Global Risk at Federation of American Scientists, former Sr. Dir NSC, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (doomsday clock setter). Pope of Chili Town. Hosts We’re All Gonna Die on DSR. No #manels, Stonecutter?
1,789 posts
2,749 followers
377 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
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Told ya. We negotiated a good deal that made US and Israel safer. Trump blew it. Elections have consequences.
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I find it impossible to believe Iran negotiates over nuclear at this point. Politically impossible inside Iran. Expect them to rebuild and withdraw from Nonproliferation Treaty and rebuild in secret underground sites.
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CNN reporting top Iranian nuclear scientists targeted and killed.
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CNN reporting nuclear scientists and general staff targeted and killed.
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oh happy day
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We chanted:
What do we want?
No Nukes!
When do we want it?
Now!
And then we listened to a free concert with Jackson Brown and Bruce Springsteen.
It was awesome.
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Thanks. Had missed those.
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In that he appears to be correct.
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Most do. But there is a lot of money to be made and those profits have invested in Trump and his team and Congress so full speed ahead. Explains the 10 year proposed ban on state AI regulations.
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There does not appear to be any interagency coordination and given the disfunction at the Pentagon, seems very likely this is Bridge operating on his own. But inquiring minds want to know.
FWIW, suspect Colby very supportive of anything that helps counter China.
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“Accidents happen all the time. Nuclear weapons are not immune from this dangerous reality.”
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India, Pakistan, North Korea, UK, France all have a say and need to do more to reduce risks of accident ad miscommunication.
But no matter how good we get at this, mistakes will continue to happen. There is no perfect system or weapons. And the risks with nuclear are magnified. end/
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Investing now in reducing reliance on nuclear weapons, aggressively reducing nuclear risks through both resiliency, diplomacy, cooperative risk reduction and making tradeoffs between more weapons and greater stability is key. US-RF-PRC engagement and talks must be prioritized. But not just them. 5/
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And things are going to get worse. Yes, new technology can help with warning and identification, but it also speeds things up and puts more pressure on states to get every nuclear decision right, every time. It is a roll of the dice every day. Eventually, we will roll craps. 4/
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When two or more states with nukes interact with each other, we assume, they worry about the worst, posture and misinterpret. DC and Moscow have 80 years of nuclear signalling and get it wrong all the time. Newer states will face the same problem. 3/
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Despite best efforts of our military and civilian experts, nuclear systems are complex/ mistakes happen. We cannot just assume that things will work out. They have come very close to not working out time and time again. Subs run into each other, training tapes are mistaken for a real attacks. 2/
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The Cage
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See what I did there?
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Governments should be scared of their people, people should not be scared of their governments.
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I do, yes
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She is not wrong about the danger posed by nuclear weapons. We wrote about this in the @postopinions.bsky.social last week with more coming soon. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
@scientistsorg.bsky.social @nukestrat.bsky.social @mattkorda.bsky.social
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We at @scientistsorg.bsky.social and our partners at #NagasakiUniversity are proud to have sponsored and organized the work that led this this and a full set of related articles.
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You cannot replace credibility with capability.
Deterrence = Credibility x Capability. If one is zero, no amount of the other can make it more than zero.