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keiranpedley.bsky.social
Pollster at Ipsos. Genuine poll Boffin. Expect Spurs polling and politics!!
335 posts 11,617 followers 1,362 following
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Hello Belfast!

Whatever your politics Keir Starmer has clearly had a very good week. Winning lots of pundit plaudits at least. Bigger question is does it really register? Big picture is - and I suspect will remain - economy and public services.

Off for a work trip for two days but where too Chris Kamara….

Reckon Zelenskyy going ends up part of any deal now

In a damning indictment of my career so far Finn has just asked me what I want to be when I grow up.

NEW from @ipsosuk 53% of Brits back British support for Ukraine. - 53% support down from high of 68% in Feb 23 - But just 16% oppose British support for Ukraine - largely unchanged from autumn '22. Note f/w taken Feb 3-5th. Before Trump's Putin call / Zelenskyy comments.

"Would you rather see the next Congress controlled by..." Democrats: 54% Republicans: 41% Ipsos / Feb 18, 2025 / n=2601

Worth remembering amidst the noise. Trump isn’t historically popular - even in America

From @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social last June. - Increase spending on defence even if it means taxes rise 40% - Cut taxes even if it means less spending on defence 25% - Neither 24% www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-fi...

New from Ipsos. Lack of confidence in Britain's main two parties laid bare. 6 in 10 not confident in Labour on economy / plan for Britain. But Tory numbers even worse. More than two-thirds lack confidence in Tory party. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/almost...

As a rule, people obsess over every little thing Trump does too much. But movement tonight on Ukraine and European security more generally is genuinely a very big deal.

MRP models with Reform on 100+ seats are interesting but a word of caution. Here is headline voting intention with Ipsos in June 2019 Con 26 Lab 24 Lib Dems 22 Brexit Party 12 And here is the result 6 months later Con 45 Lab 33 Lib Dems 12 Brexit 2 Things change.

6 years at @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social today. Doesn’t time fly?

Recent Ipsos polling shows challenge faced by Badenoch / Tories. When you ask about the brand of party leaders, Farage has a clear one, leads on strength, personality, understands Britain's problems. Badenoch? Nowhere. No particular brand at all www.ipsos.com/en-uk/nigel-...

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social: Which of these is most important to Britain? Europe 47% USA 21% Commonwealth 15% More www.ipsos.com/en-uk/nearly...

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social do you think Brexit has been.... More of a success: 13% More of a failure 51% Neither / equally both 27% www.ipsos.com/en-uk/half-b...

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social survey of MPs and the public show different priorities for growth MPs prioritise infrastructure projects and closer ties with the EU, public prioritise public services, jobs and wages More here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/new-ip...

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social: Majority of Brits think it is important to talk about the holocaust but 1 in 3 fear lessons will be forgotten 10 Years from now www.ipsos.com/en-uk/majori...

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social: Labour continue to be more trusted than the Conservatives on the economy - but 43% trust neither More www.ipsos.com/en-uk/briton...

Hey Luton. We are so coming for you 😂 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Will be popping up on @lbc.co.uk just after the hour to talk all things Elon Musk

23 days down in my silly press-up challenge for a very serious cause. £300 raised so far. Thanks to everyone that’s donated. If you can donate too see here fundraise.cancerresearchuk.org/page/keirans...

This is a really good read www.natesilver.net/p/are-we-ent...

Almost £300 donated. Get me over the line if you can…it’s for a good cause!

The presidential power to randomly pardon people for crimes that may or may not have been committed is wild. Feels completely at odds with the idea the US President is supposed to explicitly not be a monarch.

People mock DOGE but it’s already cut it’s own leadership team by 50%…very efficient! www.politico.com/live-updates...

Its inauguration day. New @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling shows 63% of Brits hold an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump. 22% favourable. More www.ipsos.com/en-uk/6-10-b...

Doing 100 press ups a day for Cancer Research U.K this month. £230 raised so far. Thanks to everyone that’s donated. If you can spare a tenner would be so grateful. It’s for a good cause! fundraise.cancerresearchuk.org/page/keirans...

We are so back 🏃

Back to school time: it’s raining

If you think this is something wait until Musk turns on Trump.

The thing is Farage isn’t going to stand down as leader of Reform, the king isn’t going to dissolve parliament, Starmer isn’t going to call an election. This is all crackers. Quite entertaining though. Musk is losing it.

Doing 100 press ups a day in Jan for Cancer Research. Please donate if you can fundraise.cancerresearchuk.org/page/keirans...

Musk calls for MPs to have confidence vote in Starmer. Shows his ignorance of the system. Labour have 402 MPs!

Nailed on defeat today but COYS anyway

Don’t think people have quite grasped how existential Reform U.K. could be for the Conservative Party. Farage is simply bigger than any Tory politician they can offer (Johnson aside?) and on any issue that motivates the right Farage can just say ‘you had 14 years’…