kreckellars.bsky.social
20+ years in macro markets, buy-side & sell-side, still trying to make sense of it all
10 posts
22 followers
64 following
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Since the heydays of the euro crisis
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And will Treasuries stay the risk free rate?
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- Current message: Surprisingly, no signs of extreme bullishness in the data; non-commercial positions are net short.
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- The bad: Overall, few reliable signals, limited history, and inconsistent performance.
- The future: CFTC data may cover the wrong type of investor, but this can change as crypto matures.
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- What is it: Similar to my FX Sentiment Heatmap, I analyse CFTC positioning data for Bitcoin across investor groups, including net long positions and their percentage of open interest.
- The good: Speculative net long positions have occasionally acted as contrarian indicators.
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You supposed to buy low, sell high 😂
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Not one of my TopTier indicators, but it has a decent track record. Equities have performed worst when consumers have been most bullish.
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The base line for sell-side 12 months index targets is 10%, which is exactly where these are at. So average bullishness.