lancemallett.bsky.social
Lifelong finance guy focused on investing in financial services and income yielding stocks
10 posts
46 followers
95 following
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Really hysterical, isn't it?
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Maybe it will take Lutnick to really get it done!
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That 10 year product isn't that different from a duration perspective that fixed (for investor). You really need to compare vs 5/1 or 7/1.
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Too lilttle liquidity in ARMs market right now. 20 years ago, every firm had a dedicated ARMs trader - now 0.
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The basis trade seems like it will be a convenient scape goat. I expect Fed to come in with BTFP or something to ensure liquidity is more than addressed to limit eventual finger pointing at Fed.
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Great charts. It's interesting to consider if this keeps GSEs from fulfilling mandate or if it just limits effectiveness of monetary policy.
Employment less of a limit on capacity than it used to be but still a valid question.
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Disintermediated is true but suggests similar cost of capital which is not true.
Public is lower cost of capital offset by higher costs of going/being public.
There are so many other factors of course.
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I expect it's won't be like 2007 with lots of early signs that gave 6+ months to exit. 2000 more similar to now IMO - when it just kept running and collapsed from exhaustion.
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I was probably more clued info banks/shadow banking/leverage risks than housing but I remember listening to other experts and spending much of 2007 waiting for a bust. Was similar manner as late 1999/early 2000 even though financials were in complete different places.
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Yes. They are great. No longer travel with noise cancelling headphones on long flights.