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librariancapital.bsky.social
Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack https://librariancapital.substack.com/
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Trump is not joking about trying to become president for life

Trump on his tariffs for US imports: "If you want to shop here, this is what you have to pay" Tariffs make things more expensive for Americans buying them

“This is stuff I expect from Third World countries.” www.axios.com/2025/04/25/f...

"Bunzl bosses snap up shares after £2bn sell-off" (FT) $BNZL

"Engine maker Safran says China is exempting aerospace parts from tariffs"(FT) Safran CEO "said China had exempted “any deliveries of engines, nacelles [engine casings], landing gears or parts”" Also: "Exemptions are changing every week, sometimes every day" $SAF $RTX

The FBI just arrested a sitting judge.

"Otis: 2025 Outlook Maintained Despite Tariffs, Weaker Macro" Otis’s resilience seems under-appreciated and undervalued at ~24x 2024 EPS $OTIS $KNEBV

This interview is parody. @time.com time.com/7280114/dona...

The Economist: "Why American tech stocks are newly vulnerable" But article mostly discussed Magnificent 7, which share little in common except index-driven flows TSLA vulnerable to boycotts AAPL reliant on Asian manufacturing GOOG less than 20x P/E Don't look at them together

"Andurand Hedge Fund’s Losses Worsen to 52% After April Turmoil" (Bloomberg) Returns are volatile in both directions over the years Tweeting this as part of the data to evaluate Mr. Andurand's macro predictions (incl. on cocoa)

"Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China" (FT) "The target would mean doubling the iPhone output in India" "The US accounted for about 28 per cent of Apple’s 232.1mn global iPhone shipments in 2024" $AAPL

Mr. "stock investors needn’t fear tariffs" has lost ~4.5% in April (£) so far, despite 27% in Treasuries This is worse than FTSE All-Share (down 1.8%) and roughly as bad as S&P 500 (down 4.9% in £) His returns are now ~6% p.a. over 2.5 years (£438k in Nov-22 to £507k now) (S&P 500: ~14% p.a. in $)

The FT thinks Tesla is a Tech company (it's not) "Google $GOOG is the second Big Tech company to report earnings in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s global trade war" "Earlier this week, Tesla $TSLA warned that tariffs would have an “outsized” impact on its battery business""

Alphabet 25Q1 results Total revenues +12% Ad revenues +8.5%, incl: Search & Other +10% YouTube Ads +10% Network -2% Google Cloud revenue +28% Costs & Expenses +8% EBIT +20% Other Income +293% ($8.3bn; investment gains) Net Income +46% (+$10.9bn), EPS +49% $GOOG +4.4% AH

Gov. Tim Walz State Address: "We have university students shoved into unmarked vans and fathers being tossed into Salvadorian gulags without a hint of due process. If you say you love freedom, but you don't believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn't freedom, it's privilege."

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem "could feel this person as they snatched her bag", per spokesperson Inability to recognise warning signs or to respond is obviously what you want in someone heading Homeland Security

Revolut Loans & Advances to Customers balance probably averaged about £750m in 2024 Credit Losses on Lending Products were £30.0m (another £21.5m on non-lending products) * since it went from £528m to £979m during 2024

In BF Skinner's classic "Superstition in the Pigeon" experiment, dropping food for pigeons at random times resulted in them developing strange rituals He postulated that the pigeons were misled by that randomness to believe certain behaviours were the cause of the food drops

This has to be the most brazenly corrupt act in the history of the American presidency. Trump is holding a contest to see who can pay him the most money and the prize is direct access to the president It is literal pay-to-play

Columbia’s compliance to Trump didn’t end with bending the knee on public assembly, freedom of speech and collaboration with ICE. The college gave private cell numbers of professors + students to Trump investigators looking for “antisemitism”—who then sent creepy texts asking if they were Jewish

Trump is malicious AND incompetent The Chinese smell blood "China tells US to ‘cancel all unilateral tariffs’ if it wants talks" (FT) China: "There have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the United States regarding tariffs, let alone reaching an agreement"

P&G $PG FY25Q3 Sales +1% organic (volume flat), -2% in $ Gross Margin -30 bps Core EBIT Margin +90 bps Core EPS +3% ex-FX, +1% in $ Cuts FY25 guide Sales to be flat in $, +2% organic (was +3-5%) Core EPS +2-4% (was +5-7%) $6.72-6.82 (was $6.91-7.05) Shares -2% pre-market

“In China’s policymaking circles, Trump’s comments Tuesday were viewed as a sign of him folding.” Free link ⤵️ www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Former FTC commissioners: "The ability of regulators to carry out our work without fear or favour is a bedrock principle that protects us all. It’s what prevents businesses from being ripped off by politicians and politicians from ripping apart our economy" (FT Opinion)

PepsiCo $PEP cuts 2025 outlook: "Core constant currency EPS is now expected to be approx. even with the prior year (previously MSD rowth), reflecting our expectation of higher supply chain costs and the added uncertainty around the macro. environment and the consumer landscape"

"EU Parliament in ‘final stages’ of talks with China to remove sanctions on lawmakers" (SCMP) Reminder: Chinese tariffs* on Cognac has been a key negative for Rémy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard * Technically they are not tariffs but mandatory deposits; also removal from duty-free channels $RI $RCO

"Trump starts the clock for new tariffs to take effect" (CNN) "Trump said Wednesday that he could re-impose “reciprocal” tariffs on some countries in as soon as 2 or 3 weeks" "The reprieve was supposed to be for 90 days" edition.cnn.com/2025/04/23/b...

$OTIS 25Q1 (Wed) Sales flat organic, -3% in $ o/w Service +1%, NE -9% in $ Adj. EBIT flat in $ Net Income +2%, EPS +5% Tariff hit $45-75m 2025 guide mostly unchanged Sales +2-4% organic o/w Service +5-7% (was +6-7%) Adj. EBIT $2.4-2.5bn EPS $4.00-4.10, +4-7% y/y FCF $1.6bn

Unilever $ULVR 25Q1 Underlying sales +3.0% (vol. +1.3%, price +1.7%) Beauty & Wellbeing +4.1% Personal Care +5.1% Home Care +0.9% Foods +1.6% Ice Cream +4.0% N America +6.2% Europe +3.2% APAC Africa +2.0% LATAM +1.5% Confirms 2025 guide UL sales +3-5% "Modest" margin expansion