librariancapital.bsky.social
Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack https://librariancapital.substack.com/
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Labour: "We’ll beat Reform by defeating their arguments rather than changing the rules to stop them getting money"
(The Guardian, December 21, 2024)
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Sources:
"Bridgewater's Bosses Are Fighting Over Something" (2016)
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
"Bridgewater Had Believability Issues" (2023)
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Thank you for heads-up; source was in 2016
Bridgewater returns poor since
Copeland's book only came out in 2023
Levine now seems more skeptical
"If I were in Dalio’s position, I would probably devote my time to creating complex pseudo-scientific systems to encourage my employees to praise me"
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nymag.com/intelligence...
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Real executives find it hard to fit in with Ray Dalio's cult
Former Apple $AAPL executive Jon Rubinstein, when briefly co-CEO at Bridgewater:
"You’ve got 375 Principles ... Amazon has 14 principles. The Bible has ten. 375 can’t possibly be principles"
"Ray, this is a religion"
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* The only other explanation is that all asset management businsses work on confidence and Ray Dalio has figured out that outlandish cult-like behaviour is both more proprietary and inspires more loyalty among its followers (both clients and employees)
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www.ft.com/content/3c02...
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This will only remove a small part of tariffs for $RTX
China-related tariffs represented just ~$250m of $850m estimated total impact, and the figure includes US tariffs on Chinese imports
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Pro tip: Whenever someone presenting says one thing and the numbers say another, believe the numbers
Never underestimate the readiness of a certain type of City people to lie to your face; conversely back office guys crunching the numbers have fewer reasons to lie to you than the person presenting
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www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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PS. The numbers are after he stopped disclosing portfolio numbers for 3 weeks (since 4-Apr); the maximum drawdowns are likely far worse before Trump's U-turns and market rallies than these numbers
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Did you not hear they "feel vindicated"?
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There are different kinds of talent
Dalio is one of the most successful HF-ers in his generation
But he is not an intellectual, even as he behaves otherwise
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NatWest $NWG figures here for comparison
Obviously ECL differs widely between loan type
0.22% for Mortgages
5.50% for Personal Credit Cards
9.94% for Other Personal Unsecured
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Revolut's Estimated Credit Losses in Loans & Advances to Customers was 4.1% at 2024 year-end
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In addition to its 45x P/E, Revolut also had a Price / Book of 13x, given its book value was £2.57bn at year-end
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This kept crossing my mind as I read through Rob Copeland's "The Fund" on Ray Dalio & Bridgewater
Everything described - "radical transparency", the Mao-like "Principles", Baseball Cards scoring employees - makes so little sense* the construct seems more the result of randomness
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They also didn't conceive of social media
"The electors ... this detached and divided situation will expose them much less to heats and ferments, which might be communicated from them to the people, than if they were all to be convened at one time, in one place"
The Federalist Papers (No. 68)
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To be fair, Bessent has been the one saying there are no talks
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P&G $PG Beauty
Segment sales +2% organic
Haircare "unchanged"
"Volume declines primarily in Greater China"
Skin Care down LSD organic
Volume declines, negative geog. mix
But "increased pricing primarily in Greater China"
(Mainland China beauty down LSD, per $OR)
cc $EL
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Our view: Not all of us like the FTC (or the FDA, or any of the regulators) under the Biden administration, but at this stage it should be clear that putting Trump in the White House for "de-regulation" is like inviting an arsonist to set fire to your house to fix a mold problem
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PepsiCo $PEP and Coca-Cola $KO share have diverged by ~40 ppt in the past year