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lxeagle17.bsky.social
software + ai engineer. cal alum + instructor. I do elections stuff at Split Ticket (https://www.split-ticket.org) ✉️ [email protected]
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The last time I can find anything comparable to this was 2009, where the Republican Party's leaders had +6 favorability among their own voters. That's still better than the Democratic numbers today. www.pewresearch.org/politics/200...

submitted 1 day ago • 8 comments

Put another way: "leftists hate centrists and centrists hate the leftists, but *everyone* hates the Democrats". There are too many people that hate Trump and the Democratic Party's current approach for this to be sustainable. And Trump isn't going to change

submitted 1 day ago • 8 comments

I do think that you can make a good argument for Schumer/Jeffries' approach of "watch and let him screw up", but I have very little sympathy for them now feeling the heat. For years, the Dem ethos has been that Trump is a unique threat to democracy. You can't "wait and watch" without blowback there!

submitted 1 day ago • 9 comments

More convinced than ever that senior and elected Democrats might really be misreading the sentiment among their base, and that they could be caught badly flat-footed by their own voters very soon. split-ticket.org/2025/02/21/t...

submitted 1 day ago • 29 comments

If you’re looking for something concrete you can do, give money to Susan Crawford in Wisconsin who is about to get hit with a ton of Musk Bucks. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/u...

submitted 1 day ago • 13 comments

Freedom of speech in full effect here — and FWIW as everyone knows, I don't think doomposting is productive, but if the political situation gets worse and the administration's approvals turn toxic, I fully do expect Musk to get more and more unhinged.

submitted 1 day ago • 5 comments

Crockett: "Down in Alabama, who's broke. Down in Louisiana, who's broke. I can go through pretty much the entire south and tell you that they're broke and rely on a lot of welfare from the government. To be perfectly honest, it is tax dollars from these big blue states...we're in the find out phase"

submitted 3 days ago • 1347 comments

The federal government cannot cancel elections any more than it can force you to install a gumball machine in your house. That is not something they have any control over. Please stop asking about whether we will have elections in 2026.

submitted 2 days ago • 20 comments

Trump's GOP might really struggle in 2026 compared to 2018. He's turned off even *more* high-propensity voters by now, and the voters he drew to balance those losses out are mostly inconsistent voters who backed him for the economy and rely on welfare programs that he wants to gut.

submitted 2 days ago • 14 comments

This is just flagrant corruption while the essential services of the government get gutted.

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

Lawyers at Twitter are reportedly threatening advertisers to spend more money on the platform “or else” Elon Musk will use his connections with Trump to hurt their companies.

submitted 2 days ago • 827 comments

I feel like most people not deeply in 2014-mode knew that Trump was going to get the nominees he wanted?

submitted 2 days ago • 9 comments

$6B needed to build a *train station* in San Jose, which is already projected to take TWO DECADES to complete. Is this how things are supposed to run, or can we admit something is badly broken with American transit when costs and timelines spiral like this? www.mercurynews.com/2025/02/20/s...

submitted 2 days ago • 11 comments

Something darkly funny about the whole realignment arc of American politics is that there are a non-trivial amount of people who were Obama die-hards and are now full QAnon, and there are a lot of former straight-ticket GOP voters who now think McConnell is the architect of the American downfall.

submitted 2 days ago • 21 comments

The best way to stop Donald Trump and Elon Musk is basically to win elections and it's pretty good that Democrats are nominating a moderate-conservative dairy farmer for a special in an R+21 seat When your candidates fit the district, you maximize your odds of winning www.yahoo.com/news/gendebi...

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

Genuinely awful product for an investment that's literally the size of Intel.

submitted 2 days ago • 8 comments

It’ll never be funny to me that one of the biggest companies in history lit itself on fire and burned through $100,000,000,000 trying to make something that pales in comparison to what bored and horny furries have built for free

submitted 5 days ago • 80 comments

Good riddance. Along with Donald Trump, this is probably the person who did the most damage to America and its democracy in the post-war era.

submitted 2 days ago • 13 comments

There’s this myth that voters are drooling idiots who can’t put their sock on in the morning. But that isn’t true! Voters from around the world have demonstrated they are capable of strategic voting. They are stupid but they aren’t infantile like some on here think they are.

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

This is a pretty common misconception, but in election after election we see that the base overwhelmingly comes home. People are mostly smart and know what their options are. You're just not likely to lose elections from your base bailing on you, *unless* you attract a big third-party challenge.

submitted 3 days ago • 8 comments

In today's Quinnipiac poll, 40% of Democrats approve of the way congressional Democrats are handling their job. 49% disapprove. In 2017, those splits were 64-28 (+36) among Democrats. That's *really* bad approval among your own voters. Lot of time to turn it around, but there's a risk here.

submitted 3 days ago • 53 comments