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lxeagle17.bsky.social
software + ai engineer. cal alum + instructor. I do elections stuff at Split Ticket (https://www.split-ticket.org) ✉️ [email protected]
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Posts 18 Comments 32

I'm completely fine with this, but not for the reasons MAGA is.

submitted 6 hours ago • 2 comments

I've always been said that Democrats should pick their fights carefully, but I actually think it's fine for them to fight about this. Voters are judging Trump on the economy regardless of what Democrats say. That's the benefit of being the party that can't inflict policy change.

submitted 12 hours ago • 38 comments

Our modeling estimates Democrats lost only two seats on candidate quality in 2024 (the GOP lost 12). One was Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. The other was Yadira Caraveo in CO-08. Re-running her is going to carry a few risks, especially without a legislative incumbency tailwind.

submitted 17 hours ago • 15 comments

Year might be blue enough for her to win anyways, but you are kidding yourself if you think she is the strongest candidate Dems can get in CO-08.

submitted 17 hours ago • 5 comments

submitted 1 day ago • 9 comments

"Still, legal analysts have raised questions about the legality of sending US citizens to prisons abroad." what are we doing here. it is illegal. there is literally zero question that it is illegal. what is this 'raised questions' stuff.

submitted 1 day ago • 58 comments

this is true, but (as Lakshya mentions upthread, tbf) Garcia by all accounts appears to be a relatively sympathetic person and the violation of his rights is clear cut. if you're gonna pick a fight to turn the tide against Trump on immigration, this case is pretty good terrain to do it on.

submitted 1 day ago • 15 comments

It doesn't, at least in public opinion. As insane as it is to say, voters broadly do not care. That doesn't make it okay, and you can fairly say the job of an engaged citizen is to stand up and *make* everyone else care. But right now, no — most people do not care.

submitted 1 day ago • 20 comments

NEW Split Ticket piece in the Washington Post: Donald Trump has turned the economy into a liability, through a series of entirely self-inflicted wounds (and thanks, in no small part, to his tariff policy). Gift link: wapo.st/4igCoCn

submitted 1 day ago • 7 comments

Every single person in this room, other than press, deserves to face an international criminal tribunal.

submitted 1 day ago • 24 comments

they are going to get a unanimously unfavorable ruling and ignore it.

submitted 1 day ago • 15 comments

POV: you have discovered the Democratic Party.

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

Listen I think Medicare for All would be a clearly superior way of organizing our healthcare system but it would be cripplingly unpopular for the first decade of its existence.

submitted 2 days ago • 59 comments

i am going to keep saying it as long as it keeps being true, but we're not even 100 days in and the entire administration and everyone in it is underwater

submitted 2 days ago • 17 comments

I post on Bluesky. I simply block everyone who modestly annoys me even once. I do think the site and its users would benefit from more ideological diversity if they want to be taken seriously, though. It can’t be all progressives if you want to scale up. (Not sure I’d put Hanania there, though.)

submitted 2 days ago • 17 comments

I urge everyone to remember that surveys consistently suggest there are slightly more Republicans than there are Democrats in America right now, and there are certainly more conservatives than there are liberals (Democrats win self-described moderates)

submitted 3 days ago • 9 comments

Obama won Illinois by 40% when Kerry won by 10% — sure, it was against a paper candidate, but it still takes something to overperform John Kerry by *that much* in an open seat. We had direct evidence Obama was a good candidate well before 2008.

submitted 3 days ago • 10 comments

It's pretty easy to see a national election where AOC doesn't win by a lot. We have absolutely no indication that her platforms translate to anything outside the Democratic base. Since her first election, she's consistently underperformed. And this does tend to translate somewhat across offices.

submitted 3 days ago • 22 comments