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meredithlilly.bsky.social
International trade professor, NAFTA/USMCA, Canada-US relations, sanctions, G7.
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Some weekend trade policy reading: Trump administration is going after what it considers to be discriminatory foreign taxes and regulations, including digital services taxes.

My interview w FP's Gabe Friedman on changing Cda-US trade relations under Trump 2.0: - Tariffs as sanctions & the power of threats; - Canada’s unhelpful public debates on retaliation & what Mex is doing right; - Cdn options as US leadership & coop decline. open.spotify.com/episode/0N0K...

My interview w FP's Gabe Friedman on changing Cda-US trade relations under Trump 2.0: - Tariffs as sanctions & the power of threats; - Canada’s unhelpful public debates on retaliation & what Mex is doing right; - Cdn options as US leadership & coop decline. open.spotify.com/episode/0N0K...

The closest recent approximation of a country-by-country, product-specific tariff is the EU's CBAM. In a shocking development, the EU learned CBAM is administratively complex and onerous, and offers limited benefits. So, now they plan to ditch 80% of it.. www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

Hello, in case you are interested in all of the investigations (and subsequent tariff threats) Trump 1.0 carried out into foreign digital services taxes, you can find them here: ustr.gov/issue-areas/...

While we await more details on Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement today, note that Canada has a value-added tax (VAT). It’s called the GST. theglobeandmail.com/world/articl...

Something I wrote on reciprocity in trade negotiations, particularly between partners of very different size and influence. Though this excerpt is from a chapter on temporary entry provisions, the reciprocity point is broader. Full chapter here: amazon.ca/Canadas-Flui...

I enjoyed the conversation last week with economist colleagues @trevortombe.bsky.social, Stephen Tapp, and Dan Ciuriak on Canadian policy toward Trump, tariffs and trade moving forward. Thanks CABE for organizing. Watch it here: cabe.ca/webinar/cabe...

Jamieson Greer nomination hearing for US Trade Rep streaming now: www.finance.senate.gov/hearings/hea...

Via its tariffs on China, the US also closed the de minimis exception of $800. This impacts Cdn firms who manufacture in China for export to US. Also, if Canada is found to transship parcels from China into US, it adds to our border challenges. www.supplychaindive.com/news/trump-t...

My comments in today's Toronto Star on Canada's trade diversification challenges. And for the trade nerds, gravity even got a shoutout in a major Cdn daily. www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

My interview on the future trade implications of Canada's Digital Services Tax and Online Streaming Act during Trump 2.0: www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...

My interview with Gabe Friedman of the FP on Canada's EV supply chain in light of Trump 2.0 and linked IRA investments: financialpost.com/commodities/...

For anyone wondering what impact Trump's executive order on energy is likely to have on Inflation Reduction Act spending, this is one of the better rundowns I've seen so far. www.canarymedia.com/articles/pol...

Time for Cdns to pivot away from 24/7 tariff watch. They were not announced yesterday. If they come, we have a plan to respond. Meanwhile, we should focus on the Day 1 Executive Orders that are now DC’s official marching orders. Here are the key ones for trade with Canada 1/:

Trump's America First Trade Policy Memo is here:

Freeland’s decision to pick a fight with Trump in her Liberal campaign launch is built on a lesson learned during NAFTA renegos.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRYq...

going well everything is awesome

My conversation with CD Howe Inst on Trump, tariffs and the threat to Canada: www.cdhowe.org/publication/...

As -20C temps and potential tariffs both loom over Canadians: When Canadians vacation in Florida, it counts as services exports for the US (and imports for Canada). Canadians spend $30B on travel to the US annually, $25B for personal and $5B for biz. www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/t...

If Trump's threatened 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico went into effect, the largest flows affected would be transportation equipment & machinery, as well as electronics, some manufacturing, & fuel. Current tariffs on goods imported from the USMCA partners are generally below 1%. #EconSky

Many seem surprised that Trump supports the H-1B program. But his openness to the program has been consistent over time. I wrote about it in this 2021 chapter comparing the US H-1B and Canadian TFW program reforms (1/4):

My new podcast with Chris Hernandez-Roy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies @csis.org on addressing Canada-US trade relations under Trump 2.0. I also touch on the role of Cdn political uncertainty on the signals being sent/received in US & Mex. www.csis.org/podcasts/35-...

Great and informative piece on provincial differences to US tariff exposure by @trevortombe.bsky.social .

Lutnick suggested no tariffs on goods US doesn’t make and must import. But Canadian leaders are preparing to play hardball with those very items - including energy exports Americans rely on.

After some recent remarks from Canadian officials on Mexico as a “back door” for Chinese products to enter the Canadian/US markets, I had the opportunity to provide my two cents over at the IELP blog. (Thanks @simonlester.com!) ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2024/12/gues...

Not sure why the US’s efforts to limit exposure to ICJ judgement on climate obligations is surprising. Pretty standard for US to seek to limit multilateral institutions from infringing sovereignty and exposing US to higher obligations than exist domestically. 1/3 www.theguardian.com/environment/...

ICYMI last week. Reposting my conversation with Sean Speer at TheHub on Trump, tariffs and the trade consequences of Canada's Online Streaming Act for USMCA. thehub.ca/podcasts/can...

We dont know all the details, but tariffs are coming. It’s time for Congress to take action. My latest: thehill.com/opinion/fina...

Check out my latest conversation on Trump, tariffs and the consequences of Online Streaming Act for Canada-US relations moving forward. Podcast with Sean Speer at The Hub. open.spotify.com/episode/4wYJ...

Pleased to join Vassy Kapelos today to talk about Trump's tariff threat. (interview starts at 1hour mark) www.iheart.com/podcast/962-...

Inside US Trade is reporting that Jamieson Greer, Lighthizer's former chief of staff, will be US Trade Rep. I would think his policy views are similar to Lighthizer's, with maybe some nuances here and there. Very different personality though. Will be interesting to see what he does with the role.

If you are into podcasts, here's one from Trade Knowledge Matters with me and @meredithlilly.bsky.social as guests, in which we talk about: statutes Trump might use for tariffs; the USMCA 2026 review; digital trade conflict; US-China trade relations; and the WTO.

Great conversation with Trade Knowledge Matters and @simonlester.com on trade with the US in the coming months.