mikemott.bsky.social
Passable at: trivia, guitar, singing, writing
Good at:
Love: music, books, movies, baseball, football, beer
Hate but mildly obsessed with: politics
Podcasts: https://ptebb.com/
The Dadicorns (my band): https://dadicornsmusic.bandcamp.com
69 posts
24 followers
29 following
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This mirrors my experience as a 5'5 dude. Would not recommend.
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I thought I was the only one that thought this. And even worse is the similar omission of really young babies.
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Good grief, how can it already be a long December on the first day of the month?
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Fair point, but I don't get the sense anyone like that has the same level of hype as Obama did. I remember feeling like with him it was less a matter of "if" than "when". Still, you are correct that any of them would be more than capable of taking the reins.
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That, of course, is with a focus on the White House. Downstream, I'd expect the Dems to at least retake the House in 2026 (haven't looked at Senate map). So yes, things are bad for the party, but it's not a death knell. Still, at a national level, they have a lot of work to do.
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The biggest thing Dems have going for them is that many of the things Trump wants to are likely to be incredibly unpopular if implemented. But even then, the news media environment has gotten so bad that many voters may be shielded from much of it.
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The key point in all this is that laws are not self-executing. They're carried out by people
And that means laws alone can never save you from autocracy
If you elect a majority Republican House, and a majority Republican Senate, and have a 6-3 R Supreme Court, elections can be nullified
5/5
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I maintain my account to keep a finger on the pulse of what's happening over there, but never post anymore. It's definitely gotten bad. I had to mute Elon and most of the recommended post notifications are clearly aimed at spreading an ideology rather than targeting my specific interests
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Of course, the reverse is also true. That's the point: this is a tight race. Still, barring an absurdly stellar debate performance by Harris tonight, or some random unpredictable event, I think the smart money is on a Trump victory in November. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
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Harris still has some momentum, but it's starting to wane and was never really sustainable anyway. If the margin of error in the current polling shifts even 1% toward Trump, Harris would need to pull 70% of the undecided vote to win.
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Granted, that total involves winning states like NH that he's effectively conceded, so I don't think it'll be quite that much. But my guess is he wins back AZ, GA, and 2 or 3 Rust Belt states. That'll be enough, and he'll probably add NV too.
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If the polls are off by the same amount in 2024 as they were in 2020, and assuming the undecideds break in the same way relative to that polling error, it's Trump 315, Harris 223.
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The states Harris needs most -- WI, MI, PA -- voted against Dick Cheney (and by extension that version of insider Republicanism) twice. I fail to see how his endorsement makes things better in those regions.
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I dunno, if anything, Trump was the fence swing in 2016 and it worked out well for the GOP (from a "winning the White House" perspective, if not the "retaining any semblance of a soul" perspective)