Cavs barely beat an Orlando team who was mid-pack in net rating during the regular season, and lost in 5 to Boston in Round 2 (yes, w/ Mitchell only playing 3 games, but system doesn't know that), so the forecast isn't sold on them as a strong playoff team yet. (Whereas Boston's rating stays strong)

That's because they have a low Playoff Rating -- this system keeps separate rolling Regular Season and Playoff Ratings based on schedule-adjusted net rating; RS only looks at recent games, but PO looks at multiple seasons and gives a lot of weight to last year's playoffs.

Good catch!