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nickmacpherson.bsky.social
Former Treasury official
27 posts 3,015 followers 38 following
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Posts 23 Comments 13

Sound economic analysis from the ever insightful @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social. #freetrade www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...

submitted 27 days ago • 1 comment

👊🇨🇦🔥

submitted 29 days ago • 1 comment

My Trade Secrets response to the tariffs. Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world. Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road. First 300 clicks free.

submitted 30 days ago • 6 comments

The biggest challenge for the Chancellor is delivering the revenue forecast. Despite all the tax increases since Labour last left office, the tax burden only rose by 2.1 per cent of GDP in 15 years. Today's forecast assumes a similar rise in just 5 years. If only raising revenue was that easy...

submitted 37 days ago • 1 comment

Debt service costs are set to rise from £105.2bn to £131.6bn over the next 5 years, a growth rate significantly ahead of spending on public services and welfare. a reminder that the Chancellor is right to prioritise fiscal consolidation. #soundmoney

submitted 37 days ago • 0 comments

Good to know Canada is in safe hands. If ever someone was well qualified to deal with the extraordinary challenges Britain's most reliable and loyak ally faces, it's my old friend Dr Carney. #freetrade

submitted 49 days ago • 1 comment

Love the way no one over here paid any attention to Australia when a massive Chinese warship started live-firing off its coast, but some random influencer no one’s ever heard of steals a baby wombat and our media can’t get enough 😀😬

submitted 50 days ago • 18 comments

My book review for tomorrow's FT. www.ft.com/content/c741...

submitted 57 days ago • 0 comments

Freedom and democracy are always worth fighting for. Slava Ukraini.

submitted 63 days ago • 141 comments

Happy Brexit Day (2). Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts? My National Institute Economic Review article (open access). www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

submitted 92 days ago • 7 comments

UK 10 year bond yields have risen 14 basis points in the last month. Germany's have risen by 30 bp and the USA's by 21 bp, confirming both the fickleness of markets and the media. #soundmoney

submitted 105 days ago • 1 comment

An interesting battle is playing out between the Bank of England and the market as to who determines the interest rate mortgage holders and businesses pay. At the moment, the market is winning. #soundmoney

submitted 114 days ago • 3 comments

Partnerships with HM Treasury & DBT mean our 'Chancellors & Treasury' & 'History of Civil Service' students had classes in the Old Chancellor's Office & the Old Admiralty Building with DBT perm sec Gareth Davies ℹ️ www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr... @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @policyatkings.bsky.social

submitted 141 days ago • 0 comments

I commend John Kingman's article on how to get the economy growing. In short, be bolder on planning, infrastructure, university reform and social housing.

submitted 159 days ago • 1 comment

Excellent case studies on the IMF & ERM crises on our 'Chancellors & the Treasury' module Thanks to practitioner experts Ed Balls, Catherine Macleod, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social, & Mario Pisani The module is part of MA Government Studies: www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr... @policyatkings.bsky.social

submitted 165 days ago • 0 comments

I understand why inheritance tax is unpopular. But 100%IHT relief encourages asset hoarding until death: it encourages inefficiency and is a barrier to productivity growth.

submitted 165 days ago • 3 comments

Not altogether surprising given uncertainty around the US election but a reminder that investors in UK gilts expect a return and demand has its limits. #soundmoney

submitted 179 days ago • 1 comment

The Budget is a brave attempt to deal with HMG's inheritance but contains two vulnerabilities. Has the Chancellor tightened policy enough? If not, she may require a 2nd bite. And will the market absorb the extra borrowing? Early days but the recent rise in gilt yields is not encouraging. #soundmoney

submitted 184 days ago • 4 comments

The UK's baby bust continues - births in England and Wales in 2023 fell below 600,000, and the total fertility rate fell to 1.44 - lowest rate on record. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

submitted 187 days ago • 10 comments

The new rules could increase investment. But they will unambiguously increase borrowing and pressure on funding costs. HMG can contain those pressures through a credible macro plan. That will have nothing to do with the rules and everything to do with the path to stabilising debt. #soundmoney

submitted 190 days ago • 2 comments

Fiscal rules aren't "rules", simce they are constantly changing and there are no consequences if you miss them. We don't call the 2% inflation target a rule. Much more important is whether fiscal policy is sustainable and coherent. Time to move on.

submitted 218 days ago • 4 comments

Tempting to ignore @sirjjkc.bsky.social as a discredited relic of kinder gentler times. But HMG would do well to follow his advice which has been proven right over and over again. Time to move on.

submitted 533 days ago • 1 comment

Sadly we don't know - if the labour market is loosening or tightening - if we have a UK specific participation problem - if the numbers of self employed are collapsing The data is rubbish My column The UK’s ‘official’ labour data is a nonsense ft.com/content/d6bd... via @ft

submitted 556 days ago • 7 comments