notthedarkweb.bsky.social
High Priest of high liberalism. Toronto sports fan. "Radical Socialist" (Very much a political liberal).
Not that funny
3,719 posts
2,169 followers
415 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
comment in response to
post
realhead stuff
comment in response to
post
Like every single Axis power did mass conscription too what does this even entail
comment in response to
post
comment in response to
post
He is a menace.
comment in response to
post
Apparently has an Age of Empires campaign about him?
comment in response to
post
Re: Renaissance stuff that was a joke though, the origins is actually earlier and attributable to the court of Justinian.
comment in response to
post
Also read Halsall's discussion of Odoacer providing general stability to Italy during his reign, though Halsall is one of the minority who still stands with the "real transition with coup" narrative. (Halsall 2007 specifically)
comment in response to
post
You might want to read Mathisen and Shanzer's 2011 edited volume on later Rome and its relationship with the so-called "barbarian" polities, especially Edward Watts essay on how Odoacer (named Odovacer in the volume) did little to disrupt imperial continuity
comment in response to
post
> generally peaceful government
> generally liked by the Roman population
> had senatorial support
> represented yourself as a proxy of the ERE
> renaissance historians destroy your reputation because you had the audacity to be the most competent governor of Italy in a century
comment in response to
post
don't see how that stops with all of this bullshit for the next 4 years!
comment in response to
post
Re: negative demand shock I think thats definitely an area where the Trump admin is already seeing blowback, as another poster pointed out currency markets have taken a tumble due to expectation of larger fed rate cuts and added inflationary pressures already.
comment in response to
post
He's so fucking corny
comment in response to
post
Most Bonds generally have been in that range give or take a few years so I think thats appropriate, but yeah the average Bond actor does read older than that.
comment in response to
post
Yup, in another comment thread I pointed out how under conditions of massive policy uncertainty why risk-averse market makers might not want to make the bet against the government on this one, which probably didn't lead to a market crash.
comment in response to
post
Definitely a good counterpoint but I think thats one of the semi-plausible reasons why investors in uncertainty might not have rated potential tariff regimes as highly as possible.
comment in response to
post
Bond should not have boyish good looks. He should be a world-weary mid-30 something in his first film and then age in.
comment in response to
post
Right, I think it's wrong to understand EMH as a claim about the capacity for markets to reflect the *correct* information, markets are still composed of firms and traders who have expectations on the future and these might be distorted. The claim is that you can't beat the horde consistently.
comment in response to
post
*based on present information
comment in response to
post
Just not sensible to gamble with essentially trillions of dollars on a deranged administration when the concern is for the livelihoods of millions of people.
comment in response to
post
I think with the general uncertainty in the economic environment, the problem is that the average asset trader with actual market impact (a gigantic mutual fund managing the assets of millions of people, for example) is going to be highly risk-averse.
comment in response to
post
EMH reflects expectation about the future based on the future and is reliant on the epistemic assumptions of asset traders so unfortunately EMH and irrational exuberance are reconcilable.
comment in response to
post
Ofc this means that US inflation will probably keep chugging on. No golden panacea in econ.
comment in response to
post
Large part of the currency market sell-off is a result of pricing in predictions that the Fed will cut rates a lot more than previous expectations indicated, so unfortunately the system is working as intended to prevent any sudden shocks lol.
comment in response to
post
There's been a downturn but thats mostly a result of policy ambivalence and unpredictability, which is almost always *worse* than policymakers settling on any particular route outside like hyperinflation. So its pretty clear how much institutional movers rate the impact of the policy.
comment in response to
post
The intuition was that shocks to supply chains would cause downstream effects on production but I was a bit suspicious of that...post-COVID shocks led to a lot of onshoring by producers...
comment in response to
post
(I did post on bluesky about how the Trump tariffs would almost certainly hurt smaller economies much more than larger ones)
comment in response to
post
Was posting on a discord about this but my pessimistic intuition was that the US was simultaneously the largest producer economy in the world along with being the largest consumer economy and its trade deficit is actually one of the smaller.
comment in response to
post
"We're not that kind of protestant Mr Chirac"