olafstorbeck.ft.com
Financial Times Frankfurt Bureau Chief. All Things ECB and European Macro. Previously: Reuters Breakingviews & Handelsblatt. Long distance cyclist. Car free since 2009. Views mine, not the FT's. (The FT's ones here: https://www.ft.com/ft-view)
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I am Not forcing you to read my stuff, there are alternatives
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Yes - currently trying to find out what the AI tools are good for and for what they are useless. I was initially v skeptical but have actually been v positively impressed in many cases. (But also seen hilarious failures)
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Sorry can you please behave yourself
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These numbers of course say little if anything about what will happen tomorrow, but help to illustrate how big the potential realistic differences in results can be, given the margin of error in the polls
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Here is ChatGPT's explanation of what it did
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here is ChatGPT's own explanation
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And asking ChatGPT to take the momentum since January 2024 into account, this are 10 randomised results. In that scenario, all mainstream parties can brace for a night of long faces.
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also because I was on a 2-hour delayed train journey and was bored to death.
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Why what?
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of course - they see them at 3.5% taking in 2021 and 2017 results , or 4.3% without. (FDP at 4.2% if it ignores 2021 and 2017 results)
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It was fun indeed. Thanks for having been so generous with your time!
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you should play the lottery this week!
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Ja, auch gerade gedacht. Allerdings steht Pence seit dem 6. Januar 2021 glaube ich ohnehin nicht mehr ganz so hoch im Kurs.
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Regional transport in Germany already 40% run by private operators (and some a real embarrassment too)
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Actually - and this is really true - the project to dig into German train delays ahead of the election was wel on track (excuse the pun) long before the Scholz statement. But it inspired us to add the UK angle.
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Pure gold among the FT readers' comments.
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There are good theoretical arguments to split network ownership and train operations. But given how run down the German rail network is at the moment, that looks like the (potentially) right step at the wrong time. First we need to focus on fixing the network, which will cost tens of billions.
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My colleague Jonathan Vincent in London crunched 1.9bn data points to uncover this. I'm chuffed to have been part of this pretty cool example of data journalism, which was inspired by Alex Barker.
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Und so werden wir wahrscheinlich von der Paulskirche bis zum Lohrberg fahren: Hauptwache - Öder Weg - Marbachweg und dann über die Überführungen bis zur BGU (ohne Schlenker da oben, die Variante wäre nicht asphaltiert)
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Wir starten bewusst an besonderen historischem Ort - hier begann die Demokratie in Deutschland.
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if it only was the treat from within…
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Auch für die anderen 450 Millionen Einwohner der EU.
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"Einschränkungen [der] Freiheit durch den Russofaschismus" sind hier bislang eher überschaubar, wenn ich mal von meiner Gasrechnung absehe
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Like Texas?
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“Mittlestand statt Stillestand”
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Im Übrigen habe ich den Spiegel-Artikel nicht so verstanden, dass er die untere Einkommenshälfte zur Zielgruppe hätte - klang mir, schon vom Framing "meine Tochter" her, sehr Mittelschicht bezogen. Und selbst die Haushalte, die genug finanzielle Ressourcen haben, legen ihr Geld halt falsch an.
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Sehe nicht, warum Leute ab dem 3. Zehntel nicht in der Lage sein sollten, einen Teil ihrer Ersparnisse in marktbreite ETFs zu investieren. Außer, dass Leute wie Sie ihnen einreden: Das ist nur was für Reiche.
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Und zu ihrer Frage "Warum ausgerechnet der Aktienmarkt" lohnt sich ein Blick in die Wirtschaftsgeschichte www.ubs.com/global/en/we...
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So ein Quatsch - Sparen ist ja etwas, das Leute quer über alle Einkommen tun. Das Problem ist nur, das viele Leute Anlageprodukte mit viel zu geringen Renditen und zu hohen Kosten wählen (Sparbücher, Lebensversicherungen). Aber Sie bringen das Problem in den Köpfen schon auf den Punkt.
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eigentlich ja der richtige Instinkt, aber: "Never go against fashion stocks"