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opplevelse.bsky.social
A fluid mechanist engineer specialising in multiphase flows with a passion for science, motorsport, satellite imagery, astro / space and weather, in particular Cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes! Based in Western Australia but travel the world!
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Prolific Poster

Tropical Cyclone #Garance has made a direct landfall over the island of La Réunion in the Indian Ocean with winds over 165 km/h 🇷🇪 This animation shows the recent satellite imagery with rain detected by radar. Yellow = heavy/extreme rain.

🌀Le cyclone #Garance a atterri à 10h locale sur le nord de l'île de La Réunion On a relevé 214 km/h sur l'aéroport de Gillot 174 km/h au Maïdo 169 km/h à Bellevue-Bras Panon 160 km/h à la Plaine des Cafres 🟣 Alerte violette cyclonique en cours ⚠️ Restez à l'abri

Severe tropical cyclone #Alfred is a pretty large system! If it were over land it would cover more than half of QLD with a width / height of 750 x 850km

Tropical cyclone #Alfred has weakened slightly due to increasing shear as mentioned yesterday. It has a large ragged eye which is offset (tilted) slightly to the SE of the LLCC thanks to the influence of mid lev shear. Increasing shear and lower SSTs will see it weaken further over the next day.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Friday morning, after having weakened to a category 3 system overnight.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred standing a little straighter on Thursday, with a pinhole eye now evident.

Yet another very pretty late afternoon #thunderstorm rolling over the #Darwin area earlier, probably for the 3rd or 4th day in a row now. These outflow-dominant storms are often a feature of the later stages of wet season here in the #TopEnd 🌩️ #Australia #auwx #ShelfCloud #StormHour

My chillis? Red and hot.

Latest MW images of Tropical Cyclone Alfred show less convective activity near the center than previous passes. A lopsided system due to 17 kt of wind shear. While shear is expected to decrease in the immediate term, the detirm models suggest this wont last and will dampen further intensification

It appears that #CycloneGarance is making a run for CATEGORY 4 status as it nears #Reunion, where it will likely make a MAJOR CYCLONE landfall on. Preparations should be completed within the next 24 hours. #wx #wxsky #cyclone #Garance

Tropical Cyclone Alfred (18P / 22U) and Tropical Cyclone Seru (21P) spinning away in WPAC. Alfred is nearing its peak and has a non zero chance of crossing the QLD coastline in a few days. Definitely one to watch! #Alfred #Cyclone #Seru #WX

There are several cyclones in Southern Hemisphere right now, but lead story is Cyclone GARANCE. Computer models all show it turning S & striking French territory of Reunion (pop. ~896K) early Friday, and it could be equivalent to Cat-3 hurricane when it gets there. Prepare now.

Four tropical cyclones are currently active around Australia: Bianca, Alfred, Seru, and Rae. Most will stay out at sea, but Alfred may approach Queensland in the coming days.

The SPCZ is on fire with the MJO in the area. Great example of an ITCZ breakdown with 3 active TCs along it - #Alfred, TS 21P, and #Rae

Category 4 tropical cyclone Bianca #21U is likely at its peak and will slowly weaken over cooler waters and additional shear.

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Australia and New-Zealand as seen this morning (17th Feb) from geostationary orbit at an altitude of 35,800 km Himawari-9

For posterity this is the final 12 hours of STC #Zelia prior to landfall. A late easterly shift spared most populated areas of a potentially catastrophic impact. Hopefully De Grey Station is ok as it copped the worst of the Eastern eyewall.🤞 #tropicalWX #PortHeadland #Cyclone

STC Zelia has crossed the coast half way between Port Headland and Pardoo and is heading straight for the small community of De Grey. Very very fortunate track, crossed the coast at high tide but fortunately no population there.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia makes landfall east of Port Hedland.

Based upon Satellite ASCAT and other data, the strongest winds for STC #Zelia are in the North Eastern quad. Its current track, crossing to the East of Port Headland, is therefore a good thing.

Bedout Island stopped reporting 4 hours ago ... of course 🤦 #Zelia #CycloneZelia #PortHeadland

Persistent heavy rain and some freah and gusty winds about the place this morning, but other than that it's all pretty tame... for now. Final preparations have been completed and storm shutters going down at our location. Remote cameras have been deployed 🌀 #TCZelia

Well STC #Zelia is not looking anywhere near as healthy this morning as it did yesterday afternoon. It looks like it did NOT go through a full ERC, as the original eyewall never collapsed. The process, however, did disrupt the system with convection becoming a bit asymmetric. 1/2

Overnight tracks for severe tropical cyclone Zelia have shifted east which is very bad news for Port Headland. JTWC has it JUST west of PH and BoM just east. 🤦‍♂️😢

Cyclone Zelia at the coast of Australia. The eye is ~30 km wide. SWIR image taken by Sentinel-3 SLSTR on Feb. 13, 2025.

🔴⚠️🌀Impressive evolution in just 24 hrs for cyclone #Zelia, along the W. coast of Australia.It has rapidly reached Cat.4 with winds at 225km/h and now is weakening. But it could intensify again before its landfall in Pilbara ⬇️last 24hrs by himawari9 @volcaholic1.bsky.social

ERC of STC #Zelia is well underway with a secondary eyewall very clear on the PH Radar

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has just started going through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC). While this temporarily weakens the storm it will likely come out of it stronger than before 🙁

STC Zelia’s eye temp is approaching 0C

There is an extraordinary amount of lightning ⚡ ⛈️ in the eyewall of Severe Tropical Cyclone #Zelia. This is reminiscent of Severe Tropical Cyclone #Ilsa which crossed east of Port Headland 13th April 2023. #Zelia is a *much* more powerful storm at the same stage. #PortHeadland #CycloneZelia

MW imagery of Severe Tropical Cyclone #Zelia shows a very nice storm with symmetric solid convective core and excellent midlevel water over very warm waters. I would not be at all surprised if it hits cat 5 shortly.

#Zelia's eye is clearing out now, with it having warmed to ~-20C. It'll continue to warm likely into the positives as it rapidly intensifies towards high end Category 4/Category 5 strength

Snow shovel thrust fault critical wedge experiment number 3 ⚒️

Good morning Zelia! As I mentioned yesterday, shear reduced clearing the way for RI overnight. I didn’t quite expect this though! 😳😳😳😲😂 #cyclonezelia

Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Zelia undergoing rapid intensification off WA's Pilbara coast on Thursday morning. www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW...

Ohhhh so so tempting … 12 k points! #cyclonezelia @oreboundimages.bsky.social

Cloud associated with Tropical Cyclone Zelia extends across Australia and over the Southern Ocean.

Ohhh Tropical #Cyclone #Zelia is really beginning to kick off now. Some much better looking convective plumes/symmetry indicates that shear is relaxing which should improve development! The next 12 hours should be awesome! 👀 @oreboundimages.bsky.social is chasing- be sure to follow him too!

Tropical Cyclone Zelia over the last few hours on Himawari Geocolour #Zelia

Tropical #Cyclone #Zelia has strengthened to a Category 2 (Aus scale) system with the LLCC obscured under a dense cloud deck. The latest satellite loops show a storm that is under the influence of reasonable shear ... but SSTs good, outflow good, moisture good, get rid of the shear and 💥!