osintkingfisher.bsky.social
Mainly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine - reliably sources only
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Nice article!
Do you think Ukraine will receive missiles that have a range of 500km or do you expect Germany to downgrade them (if possible?) to <300km?
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Still, the fact that countries are openly discussing a peacekeeping mission is positive.
According to Bloomberg, a big European aid package is being prepared.
I am not sure if Europe will step up enough (and fast enough) but at least they seem to start understanding that they need to step up.
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I don’t agree. UK, FR and SE openly talking about peacekeeping. Also NL not ruling it out.
DE needs a bit more time as always. This time also due to upcoming elections.
Next time ES just shouldn’t be invited anymore, but the Scandinavian countries instead.
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The F-16 appears to be equipped with AIM-120 AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missiles, GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs, external fuel tanks, and the AN/ALQ-131 electronic countermeasures pod.
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SDB means that they are used relatively close to the front lines. That is new info, as until now it was assumed that they were only used for air defence purposes.
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Did the west provide thise 900kg bombs or did UA produce it by itself?
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I assume that it doesn’t necessarily need to be 2 SLS each? And that they could also do 4 on a FU that has high likelihood to face drone attacks and don’t use SLS on a unit that should not see drones (since they should be eliminated by other AD layers)?
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To put this into perspective: US spends $800+ bln every year for the hypothetical scenario that they are attacked.
They have a rare oppertunity to destroy one of their biggest threats, but only spend 22bln/y.
If they would provide UA with 220bln yearly, it would still be an extremely good deal.
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Source:
www.axios.com/2025/01/28/u...
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Israel has a total of 8 Patriot batteries, so in theory Ukraine could receive a lot more of such systems.
Eventhough it is the older PAC-2 variant, both the missiles and the batteries would be very welcome to Ukraine.
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That makes a total of 750 T-72B3!🔥
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The third Nebo-SVU loss (according to Oryx losses list).
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Thanks for the explanation!
You mention “urgently needed military assistance” but I believe the 3 IRIS-T SLM systems won’t be delivered until ~2027? Or are they planning to take them from existing stocks?
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I believe it will only be “really devastating” if Ukraine can keep up this high attack rate every week. In previous years they couldn’t, but they should have increased their drone production significantly. Let’s hope they will have enough drones to make a big impact this year.
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Source: www.gov.uk/government/n...
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“The innovative system is able to retrofit air-air missiles for ground-based air defence, meaning it can use Ukrainian missiles already in their Armed Forces’ possession.
Two prototypes of the air defence capability system were tested in Ukraine in September, and a further 15 will follow this year”
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The federation that is not taking part in a war, is receiving quite a lot punches on the chin for just a “Special Military Operation”.
Their economy is getting closer and closer to the ropes.
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I think it is no coincidence that this has been attacked on a very windy day.
Unfortunately, from now on the wind is dropping significantly.
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Yeah I saw that list indeed. But still doubt if it is true as I can’t find anything about it.
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US had pledged 40 but I am not sure if they have all been delivered yet, as 18 were part of USAI (hence ordered to be produced).
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I believe that it is an old image, not from today. :)
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Now let’s also mount some Palianytsia on USVs 😃
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In recent time, Russian channels started reporting that the Ukrainians were now employing USVs as FPV drone carriers to attack Russian targets close to the coast.
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Also, there is a report from Kriegforscher (@osintua) on X that Russia has *also* launched an offensive in Kursk oblast.
He reports about *~40* AFV’s used in the Russian offensive, “from 155 and 810 marine brigades, and 106 VDV division took part in advance”.
Source: xcancel.com/osintua/stat...
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It will be likely be a drawdown package from existing US equipment, since all USAI funds have already been allocated.
(USAI: Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which are orders for future deliveries to Ukraine of weapons that are to be produced)
Source: www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo...
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Ukraine has been extremely lucky that the debris are falling exactly on the target so often🤡
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Wow!
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Couldn’t agree more
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I believe there is a mistake in your list for IRIS-T SLM.
You have 12 (by DE) and 1 (by DE+NO) which totals at 13, whereas @deaidua.org and @rebel44cz.bsky.social have a combined total of 12.
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It is good to keep this "blame game" in mind when you hear one of the sides saying that they are "open" for peace talks. It doesn't necessarily mean that they really are.
Thank you for reading and feel free to respond if you have any additions or corrections.
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A simple version of Trumps pressure could be:
- towards RU: sign the deal or I will overload UA with weapons
- towards UA: sign the deal or I will stop the weapon deliveries
Hence it is important to not be the one to blame and it could turn out a big advantage if the other side is blamed.
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