paulwarburg.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Trump claims to be on the side of peace by trying to force Ukraine to negotiate instead of fighting. Simultaneously, he bombs Houthis WITHOUT first attempting to negotiate with them. The reason? To protect the very trade routes he is attacking economically with tariffs. youtu.be/nXL4aVGficc?...

submitted 18 hours ago • 3 comments

Trump’s trade wars are inconsistent with Trump’s actual wars. While decrying foreign imports into the U.S. via tariffs, Trump has no qualms bombing the Houthis to keep the trade routes for those imports open. If we strike Yemen instead of talking to them, why do we force Ukraine to talk to Russia?

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

A lot of people have worried about Elon Musk shutting off Ukraine’s Starlink access. I’d like to calm some nerves, so I explain in this video why that’s not at all likely (due to Elon’s own self interest). youtu.be/Kty4WRIZMNU?...

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

One of my more heartfelt videos. I encourage all Americans to watch it and think through everything that’s said, even if you tend to disagree. This conversation is too important to just ignore the other side. youtu.be/0f0vuCycOTE?...

submitted 5 days ago • 13 comments

If Tesla’s stock price had any fundamentals backing it up (actual sales or profits), Musk wouldn’t bemoan the price crash. He’d celebrate it as a chance to get a great deal. That’s not the case. Tesla’s value is almost 100% based on speculation and “good feelings.” And the bill is coming due.

submitted 7 days ago • 4 comments

The indications I am getting are that U.S. intelligence pauses are currently partial, not full pauses, and apply to intelligence for offensive long-range strikes within Russia. It seems to be an open case whether this applies to “defensive intelligence.” Anyone seeing anything different?

submitted 12 days ago • 7 comments

TSMC’s $100b investment in the U.S. is not because of tariffs. It’s because of cheap energy, vulnerable supply chains, and China’s threats against Taiwan. TSMC has already invested $65b in Arizona since 2020 - years spent under a different admin. The same trends also drive Apple’s investments.

submitted 14 days ago • 3 comments

Our children will ask us why the country that stood up to Hitler, Stalin, and Mao suddenly changed its mind and failed to stand up to Putin while hundreds of thousands died. Right now our answer seems to be “Well it seemed expensive and scary and hard.” What happened to “Make America Great Again?”

submitted 15 days ago • 5 comments

American companies mining in Ukraine isn’t a security guarantee. American people don’t have to be involved. It could just as well be Ukrainians working for American-owned companies. Americans have also already been killed during the current war. That didn’t magically get us involved or stop Putin.

submitted 15 days ago • 3 comments

Unlike most commenting on Ukraine, my personal circles have always leaned Republican. I was dismayed early on by how many people in the party I wanted to love were against supporting Ukraine. Now, with every decision Trump makes, I am seeing more and more Republicans outraged. That gives me hope.

submitted 17 days ago • 10 comments

Zelensky thanked the United States, the US President, and Congress for their support after a tense meeting with Trump and Vance.

submitted 18 days ago • 16 comments

I just watched a heated exchange of the president and vice president of the United States talking over the president of Ukraine and never letting him speak. This all while saying “we need diplomacy” and “we need to listen to the other side.” Apparently we have to listen to everyone but Ukraine.

submitted 18 days ago • 6 comments

This might be my most important video to date. I examine the full text of Trump’s “Ukraine ‘Mineral’ Deal” (which turns out to actually be a reconstruction deal) and delve into the somewhat disturbing implications. youtu.be/4X2GW_JvPMk?...

submitted 19 days ago • 6 comments

Keeping Ukraine out of peace talks will prolong the war, not shorten it. Ukraine is currently still fighting to defend itself for the exact purpose of not being carved up by other nations. A “peace deal” without Ukraine is just the current status quo, but making it “look” like you did something.

submitted 27 days ago • 4 comments

Yes, the same Russians who claim they invaded Ukraine to “denazify” it regularly come at me with anti-semitic comments because of my last name. They don’t even pretend to believe their own narrative.

submitted 31 days ago • 3 comments

The problem with China invading Taiwan is that…everybody knows about it. Land invasions of this scale have always been cloaked in huge secrecy. But China has broadcast their intentions. My theory? It’s a cover story for military buildup that’s aimed at a different target. More in a video soon.

submitted 37 days ago • 7 comments

Today, we raised $200, which is not a bad result, but with such speed, we will reach the goal only in 38 days — it’s too long. The enemy has an advantage in equipment, which puts Sergei’s team at a much higher risk. He needs help ASAP!🙏 PayPal: [email protected] #donatetoukraine #nafo

submitted 41 days ago • 1 comment

Tariffs can’t convince manufacturers to bring production home in a place like the U.S. We change admins every 4 year. If the only advantage to manufacturing in the U.S. is created by a tariff that the next admin can lift, companies won’t take the risk of large new capital investments. Econ 101.

submitted 44 days ago • 2 comments

Today my country begins its trade war on Mexico, Canada, and China. It doesn’t make me happy. Tariffs have a track record of making a lot of things worse, and there’s really no great historical examples of tariffs bringing about prosperity. For more, check out my video: youtu.be/p5o2rMaKjYg

submitted 45 days ago • 3 comments

Said it before, but Ukraine can stop Russia’s shadow fleet by targeting a small number of facilities on the coast. They haven’t done so at scale because a complete block of Russian energy could jeopardize western support. But if that support ever ends…Ukraine has options. apple.news/AMiQsx0r1Ru-...

submitted 68 days ago • 1 comment

Russia has a well-trodden playbook of tyranny that they used in Georgia, then Ukraine, and now in Transnistria/Moldova with a chilling level of parallels. I discuss more in my latest video. youtu.be/qezEm0jiHvs

submitted 70 days ago • 2 comments

YouTube comments are something else right now. The normal wave of Russian bots repeating the same thing over and over is being drowned out by a wave of bots promoting a fake Elon Musk crypto token. Finally Elon Musk produces a solid stand against Russia - just not in the way we ever expected! 😂

submitted 74 days ago • 1 comment

A fascinating example of how more widespread military revolt can begin. Russian military commanders refusing orders to cross the Dnieper River. Some have even gone so far as to sabotage their own boats or reveal their location to make such assaults impossible. www.newsweek.com/russian-comm...

submitted 84 days ago • 2 comments

The idea that tariffs can save the U.S. economy is a lot sillier than you might even think. AND there are a ton of inconsistencies in tariff philosophy that show this isn’t an actual attempt at helping people, but rather a shameless ploy to get votes in swing states. youtu.be/p5o2rMaKjYg?...

submitted 97 days ago • 3 comments

Lot of people seem to be missing that Zelenskyy implying he’d “trade land for NATO membership” is simply because NATO membership is impossible where an active conflict is going on. That doesn’t mean Ukraine is giving up - it means NATO is the only possible path to security IF there’s a negotiation.

submitted 99 days ago • 2 comments

Trump says “There was never much benefit in Syria for Russia.” He misses the point. There may not been a benefit for the Russian state, but Russian oligarchs and military officers made LOTS of money there propping up the Assad regime. I’ve made videos on this. That’s what really drives Russia.

submitted 100 days ago • 1 comment

The fall of Assad is about more than just Syria. The fact that Russia did NOTHING to stop it afternoon many years of direct intervention shows just how over-leveraged their military is in Ukraine. Russia can’t risk an escalation of any kind, because the pressure would be just too much.

submitted 100 days ago • 4 comments

Mussolini committed war crimes when invading Ethiopia, but the League of Nations failed to do anything about it aside from minor sanctions. His bigger ally, Hitler, watched this and learned, seeing that he could count on international inaction when he conducted his own invasions. Sound familiar?

submitted 108 days ago • 4 comments

Lots of people seem to all of a sudden think that American missiles striking Russia will lead to “World War 3.” I completely disagree. Check out today’s videos to see why! youtu.be/7uT18U-RH10?...

submitted 109 days ago • 1 comment

This is really interesting. Thanks @paulwarburg.bsky.social youtu.be/QEUNBua-Ts0?...

submitted 115 days ago • 3 comments

My analysis of the Russian economy was getting so long, I decided I had to split it into two videos for The Icarus Project. That’s just how bad things really are. Hoping to get the first chapter finished soon.

submitted 116 days ago • 1 comment

Russia will NOT use nukes against Ukraine, because this would not positively change the situation on the front line, and would probably only make things worse for Russia. They WILL use the threat of nukes to try to change the front line by scaring people away from providing aid to Ukraine.

submitted 116 days ago • 3 comments

The fact that Putin is willing to weaken his military so thoroughly in Ukraine proves that he isn't actually afraid of NATO ever attacking Russia. If he was truly afraid of that, he wouldn't let his military continue to operate in such a weakened state. They will never attack, and he knows that.

submitted 117 days ago • 1 comment

To me, Russia spending tens of millions of dollars to launch a non-nuclear ICBM doesn’t show “how serious they are,” but it shows how desperate they are to LOOK serious. If they were serious, they would have carried out an actual nuclear attack. After all, the red line was ALREADY crossed.

submitted 117 days ago • 2 comments

Note that nearly every serious analyst of the war in Ukraine, regardless of political party, is in favor of unlocking long range U.S. weapons. The only ones citing the “risk of nuclear war” are those who make their careers (and millions) by automatically disagreeing with every decision Biden makes.

submitted 117 days ago • 1 comment

Russia delays death payments to families of fallen soldiers. Why? When Russian oligarchs rose to power, they built fortunes delaying worker payments for months at a time. Due to high inflation, paying late meant they could profit off the difference in currency value. Russia’s gov does the same now.

submitted 118 days ago • 3 comments

Working on a new documentary on the Russian economy for The Icarus Project. HOLY COW. It's SO MUCH WORSE than most people realize.

submitted 118 days ago • 3 comments