rascaldog.bsky.social
Pacific Northwest
🌩️👀 g0k5j1Gzz2WB
13 posts
4 followers
14 following
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Not how Social Security needs to work.
Social Security is not a bond, or a time deposit. It is an annuity. It pays you from when you retire until when you die.
If you die young, you do not get much. If you live to 110, you get far more than you paid in.
This is so old people don't die starving.
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Insurance companies believe in climate science. Of course they are mostly interested in how destructive wildfires and hurricanes are going to get.
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Yet, it might happen, and might be the correct explanation for recent cold outbreaks in the US south.
I'd love to hear more on this topic. Please explain why I'm wrong.
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But these few locations are going to be buried in the larger trends of less temperature variability and general warming. And would be improbable events, so would need a long time record to diagnose. So at minimum, would be hard to find, rare, and hard to show that it was real.
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might have more temperature variability in some areas, and just barely perhaps that might exceed the rate of warming, producing a slight higher risk of colder temperatures in a few places.
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I don't see any evidence on this, so what follows is an opinion.
The theory that warming causes cold outbreaks is likely mostly wrong. The theory depends on variability expanding faster than net warming. A much warmer world will have much less temperature variability. A slightly warmer world
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_F...
The largest insurance company in the USA is a mutual aka cooperative.
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There are two main ways to make decisions: distributed and centralized. Some decisions are better made centrally, some are better made distributed. Remember that any decision needs to take local costs and needs into account.
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Each locality is different. Solar is better in sunny places, wind is better in windy places and so on. So how does the decision be made on where to install solar this year, next year and so on?
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Replacing coal with solar and batteries might well be cheaper, but only a limited amount of solar and batteries can be produced and installed this year, somewhat more next year, and eventually solar and batteries, along with other sources (wind, geothermal, nuclear, and so on). The mix will vary.
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A long comment.
Carbon taxes/market prices are a way to reduce carbon releases. What your essay lacks is time.
Suppose we look at electrical generation. The result would be similar for other parts of the problem.
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My thoughts.
The past is a clue for the future.