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Costco on shoppers: pretty much no change in behaviour. As others have said, US consumers still willing to pay up for innovation. Yes bit more discerning (though hard to square with 10%+ spend on discretionary goods). Strength & resilience. $COST $WMT $HD $AMZN $XLY $XLF

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Costco views on inflation. Back up to low single digits after being flat. Led by fresh food but grocery also starting to see creep. Non-food deflation is also more or less done. $COST $WMT $AMZN $XLF $XLY $XLP $SPY

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Happy employees = happy customers. Costco US average nationwide wage is $31 an hour! $COST keeps low gross margins to keep customers happy & low operating margins to keep employees on board. High asset turns & high sales productivity = high returns $WMT $BJ $AMZN $XLY $XLF

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Not only are Costco customers not blinking, spending on discretionary goods continues to lead up low double digit. And fresh food not too shabby. $COST $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLP $XLF

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Costco barely skips a beat in February with terrific US comp of 8.6%. Healthy overseas too. Compares to 9.2% in Jan & 9.3% in December. #CostcoIsACult $COST $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Yes Macys format has deep issues, but note huge contrast between Bloomingdales comp +6.5% & Macys -0.5%. Sure sign of how much better high end is doing, especially vs squeezed middle in America. $M $DDS $TJX $ROST $WMT $BURL $XLF $XLY

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Yes its backward looking & confirms what we already know but 6% comp at Burlington & 6.5% at Bloomingdales confirms how strong Holiday was across board. And what a needless wrecking ball current uncertainty has been. $BURL $M $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

De-risking Abercrombie from its logo (& tons of other baggage past), driving surprisingly consistent growth & yet back to 2007 levels like it all never happened. So hard to make money in these apparel names. $ANF $AEO

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Campbells follows Kraft Heinz with ugly numbers as 2% cut to sales drives 6 point cut to profit guide. US foods facing comeuppance after those Covid years of greed. And unlike at say Coke or P&G, Walmart IS pushing back on pricing here. $CPB $KHC $XLP $WMT $XLY

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Campbells follows Kraft Heinz with ugly numbers as 2% cut to sales drives 6 point cut to profit guide. US foods facing comeuppance after those Covid years of greed. And unlike at say Coke or P&G, Walmart IS pushing back on pricing here. $CPB $KHC $XLP $WMT $XLY

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

As Best Buy says this is unsurprisingly having an impact on confidence especially down lower end demos with Target talking of prices rises on bananas, strawberries & avocados THIS week given US reliance on Mexican produce during winter. 🙄 $TGT $BBY $WMT $XLY $XLP $XLF

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Best Buy says price increases are coming & sees 1% comp hit from Trump’s Feb China tariffs. And with Mexico & China today, more on way. Wild card is how consumer responds to both scale & regularity of price increases. Completely regressive stuff. 😱 $BBY $XLY $XLF

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Some wise words from Prada: luxury is a growth business & will have normalisation cycles, for example, as it recently has had post Covid. Wiser companies manage their growth to avoid ubiquity. Plus some natural cyclicality with aspirational product $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Prada notes luxury uptick led by 5 point+ upswing in spending by both Chinese & Americans. Europe solid while Japan moderating from high base. Dubai increasingly meaningful not just in tourists but as residential tax haven. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $PRDSY $LRLCY $PPRUY

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Luxury is more sensitive to asset prices than growth per se, so with obvious caveats depending on where we head, Prada is very happy with Jan-Feb despite tough comps. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $PRDSY $XLY

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

With all of luxury having reported, almost everyone saw upturn in Q4, led by US. Laggards were Kering & (unusually) LV/Dior due to continued weakness in aspirational US shoppers. And of course dreadful Versace. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $ZGN $BURBY $PPRUY $PRDSY

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Prada really showcases how luxury is benefiting from broader base beyond just China post Covid. All regions up double digit. And yes Q4 marked acceleration in both China & US. Unlike peers, US slowest in absolute terms. $HESAY $CFRUY $LVMUY $PPRUY

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Prada confirms luxury strength. Q4 +18%, led by remarkable retail, top of peers. Group didn’t accelerate unlike peers but take out Miu Miu (up at modestly less hyper pace). & it actually did with Prada +4% after +2% in Q3. HESAY $LVMUY $CFRUY $PRDSY $PPRUY

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Best Buy echoes other large discretionary retailers in citing resilient consumer. But electronics remains on road to nowhere. No/limited growth for latest year, hard to differentiate. And this is with several new product cycles. 😗 $BBY $AMZN $WMT $XLY $XLF

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

So Cornell crows about how good fourth quarter was & how great Target is. And of course leaves his CFO to deliver bad news on sales & earnings which doesn’t square with his bullish message. $TGT

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Remember that Q4 comp of 1.5% cale on top of a 4%+ drop last year & guides flat/down Q1 comp is on top of 4% drop in 2024 & $TGT was uniquely bad back then. So compounding bad performance $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Target has really lost its way. Consumer slowdown or no, gets hit harder every time. Especially in discretionary areas, its supposed forte. Why $TGT feels like the boy who cried wolf every time it uses macro excuse. 🤥 $WMT $TJX $HD $URBN $XLF $XLY

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

A personal injury attorney being quoted by Reuters on Kroger firing its long-time CEO? 🤔 $KR

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Versace was supposedly a slam dunk, set to explode in leather goods, where it was very 'under-penetrated'. Easy to write in hopium research & guidance. Just forgot to ask Burberry & Polo who have been trying for years $CPRI $RL $BURBY $LVMUY

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

If this happens, Capri will sell Versace for 15% less than it paid 6 years ago. Plus don't forget hopium from both Idol & past $CPRI bulls that Versace would eventually be worth $10 billion. 😂 $LVMUY $HESAY $RL $TPR $PPRUY $PRDSY www.ft.com/content/9a9c...

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Urban CEO latest to use 'consistent' to describe US consumer as well as enthusiastic. Echoing Lowes, on analyst using (the tiny) month of January as foreshadowing doom, $URBN sees this as mostly weather + usual annual January blues post Holiday binge. $LOW $XLY $XLF $HD $TJX

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

In response to analyst question on ‘hearing about bigger ticket weakness (notice hockey stick from bumper Holiday to ‘slump’ fears on this week’s confidence print 😱), Arhaus says pleased with Jan/Feb. $ARHS $LOW $RH $WSM $HD $XLY $XLF

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

In response to persistent questions about Lowe’s Jan/Feb softness being macro-driven, $LOW points specifically to weather. Also says no ‘election exuberancé behind holiday. $HD $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Unlike Depot, Lowes transactions remain negative & have now been down for 15 straight quarters .- nearly 4 years. Like $HD, $LOW larger ticket ($500+) transactions improved, reflecting both greater Pro traction & better trends at higher end. $XLF $XLY

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Bar Target, all of America's top discretionary retailers with c$300 billion in sales have now reported + Walmart (& $AMZN to December). Continued US consumer strength/consistency is message so far. More surprisingly, international robust. $HD $TJX $WMT $LOW $XLF $XLY

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Meanwhile treasure hunt format continues to deliver, rain or shine. $TJX consistently strong all year, but accelerated 200bp led by apparel in Q4 to +5% comp. International > US. Eat your heart out Macys et al. $ROST $WMT $BURL $M $KSS $XLY $XLF

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Lowes couldn't be more of a carbon copy to Depot even if it tried. Comp turns positive, inventory performance not great (up 12 days vs 2019), guiding to flat/+1 '25 comp. As usual, $LOW a little worse on most metrics than $HD $XLF $XLY

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Depot still seeing no price resistance for innovation. And helped by faster Pro growth, ticket > $1000 up 1%. But high rates still hurting discretionary projects like kitchen remodels. $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Home Depot highlights their consumer is very healthy with growing income & much higher wealth. But high rates mean they’re staying put & still hesitant to use financing to remodel which will slow growth even as $HD believes it has bottomed. $LOW $XLY $XLF

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Home Depot believes COVID sales bump has normalised as has shift to services. This Q $HD saw broad based improvement. In line with comp, best in 2 years. $LOW $XLF $XLY

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

While department store peers can only dream of 11.5% margin, this wasn't Dillards best moment. Comp of -1% with significant degradation in gross margin & inventory still ended +7%. Not exactly news but speaks volumes about sector when best-in-class is here. $DDS $M $KSS $JWN $XLY

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

If there's a blot at Depot after robust Q, it is margin guide. Implies with 1% comp, margin will fall 10bp. But remember, 2024 was boosted by a 53rd week. So underlying margin is flat. And looks like $HD is not embedding any buybacks in guide. $LOW $XLY $XLF

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Home Depot has long been a class in retail excellence. But 2 years into sales downturn, $HD losing some shine. Expenses grew faster than sales for ninth straight quarter. And inventory hit 81 days, up 6 on last year and vs 73 in 2019. $LOW $XLY $XLF

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Main headline from Home Depot Q: comp positive for first time in over 2 years. Store traffic was up for first time in 3.5 years! Comp 200bp above street & margin degraded less than forecast too. $HD guiding to positive comp for 2025. $LOW $XLY $XRT $XLF

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

After 13% room night growth in Q4, $BKNG is guiding room nights +5-7% in Q1. Feels low, but $BKNG says ex leap year, Easter shift impact etc, it still expects low double digit growth across metrics. $ABNB $MAR $HLT

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Booking alternative accommodation nights up high teens vs total nights +13%. Compares to $ABNB +12%. Both growing much faster than hotels. But note $BKNG saw NO supply growth in alternative accommodation in Q4, partly why gap in growth vs $ABNB is easing.

submitted 16 days ago • 1 comment

Continuing string of terrific travel reports, Booking saw strong acceleration in Q4 vs 9M2024. Room nights +13%, 500bp acceleration vs Q3 trend like $ABNB. Rates +2% ex FX, so that gross booking value jumped 18% vs 9% in Q3. 🔥🔥 $BKNG $EXPE $MAR $HLT $AXP

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Swiss watch exports returned to growth in January for first time since August 2024 in latest sign of luxury rebound. Watches priced > $3000 grew fastest at +8%. Growth led by US & despite mainland China weakness as luxury customer base broadens. $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments