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roaringdeep.com
Freelance software developer. Superforecaster with Good Judgment Inc.
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1/4 The UST 10 year yield had it highest post-FOMC jump since 2013 yesterday.

This absolutely rocks, and should be taught in genetics classes in schools. I have little hope it will be heeded by the geniuses of Silicon Valley, however.

Lot of people dunking on this but if you were designing financial regulation from scratch you probably wouldn’t have three separate federal bodies overseeing the banking industry.

Since H5N1 flu is finally getting news coverage, here’s a looong 🧵 on what I learned while working on it for a few months at Ginkgo Biosecurity (I don’t work there anymore and this thread is on no one’s behalf) Everything here is info you can get elsewhere but just to lay it all out insomnia style

This is an extraordinary muddle of disconsonant ideas. Short thread on why, and also why it casts MAGA as rather hollow. 1/6

what did y'all imagine machine learning is, before learning it and being indoctrinated that it all about optimizing parameterized functions involving many matrices?

1/11 If you want to understand the effects of trade intervention, ask economic historians, but never ask economists. That's because their answer will almost certainly reflect little more than their ideological position, and they are likely to be wholly unaware of what happens outside the US.

Hot off the presses! 🔥📰 The new Trending News feed takes the 📰 News feed and sorts it by popularity. This is a work-in-progress I've been developing with @devingaffney.com, more info soon! bsky.app/profile/did:...

The largest great white shark ever caught in Queensland’s shark control program – measuring 5.62 metres, almost the length of a 20-foot shipping container – died while pregnant with four pups, it has been revealed.

1. Can you stop companies from training generative AI using your data? No, not currently. 2. Is this dataset meant for training generative AI? 🤷‍♀️ but more likely for research and statistical analysis. 3. Is it ok to duplicate and distribute people’s data without agency to opt out? I’d argue no.

I went to a Silicon Valley AI retreat in 2019. Turned out it was run by EA and Longtermists before I knew what those things were. One activity was to envision future scenarios involving AI. I told a story about the dangers of regulatory capture. I was shunned for the rest of the event.

The US won't collect $1 trillion over 10 years with these tariffs on Mexico. The tariff never being implemented seems a lot more likely than implementing it as written for 10 years. A changed mix of goods, smaller tariff, and reduced over time might make $50-100 billion a good median guess.

** TRUMP THREATENS 25% TARIFFS ON ALL MEXICO IMPORTS The US imported $476 billion from Mexico last year - more than any other country A 25 percent tariff on those imports would translate into a roughly $100 billion annual tax — or ~$1 trillion over the next decade

I had forgotten how ‘exciting’ policy by tweet is. It kicks off some of the best and worst on the platforms.

Reuters a few days ago: "The United States could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed..." So 10% is surprisingly low. And some wonder why stock markets aren't selling off or reacting more.

Where does the US import food from? www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/us-food-i...

How Decentralized Is Bluesky Really? dustycloud.org/blog/how-dec... A technical deep-dive, since people have been asking me for my thoughts. I'll expand a bit on some of the key points here in a thread. 🧵

What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024

The Trump campaign's message was clearly for men. And he gained among men where Republicans had the most room to do so -- young men and men of color.

An LLM that returns citations.

1/ Introducing ᴏᴘᴇɴꜱᴄʜᴏʟᴀʀ: a retrieval-augmented LM to help scientists synthesize knowledge 📚 @uwnlp.bsky.social & Ai2 With open models & 45M-paper datastores, it outperforms proprietary systems & match human experts. Try out our demo! openscholar.allen.ai

There are more than 300 sign languages across the world, and they evolved organically according to the needs of a deaf population, informed by the culture and context in which they developed. They should not be replaced by stripped-down imitations.

One downside to social media is that 10 jackasses can go out for an afternoon stroll with Nazi flags in one town in a country of 340 million, and hundreds of thousands of us experience and react to it in near-real time. This is exactly what they want. We don't have to reward them with our attention.

Fascinating emails from the Sam Altman, Elon Musk and others around the founding of OpenAI. www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jjk4C...

“Just” 2,000 GPUs 😅

Alas

This is incorrect and shows how little the average person knows about garment manufacturing. 🧵

The network should outlast the company

Great thread from @michaelhendricks.bsky.social! Reminds me of something Larry Abbott once said to me at a summer school: Many physicists come into neuroscience assuming that the failure to find laws of the brain was just because biologists aren't clever enough. In fact, there are no laws. 🧠📈 🧪

TIL, the lack of a licensing scheme can incentivise businesses to firebomb the competition. bsky.app/profile/guar...

Every Thursday morning I reflect on the fact that the covid pandemic forced The Economist to put together a remote process for cooperatively editing the final version of the print edition that turned out to be vastly faster and more efficient than the in-person version we used to use at the office.