roaringdeep.com
Freelance software developer. Superforecaster with Good Judgment Inc.
25 posts
98 followers
960 following
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Yes, at some point there will be a wraithing. But with SpaceX and his wealth, it is tough to imagine how Trump manages Elon as casually as so many who came before.
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4/4
What could go wrong?
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3/4
But TSLA is up so may as well jump in the news and be responsible for a government shutdown. No need to quietly wait to take office.
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2/4
The Dow Jones is on its longest losing streak in 46 years.
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And childhood dementia with its various genetic causes is another 'cellular' brain disorder.
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Pitt-Hopkins, Angelman, Fragile-X, and Rett Syndromes all have a cellular basis. They are all autism spectrum disorders that co-occur with intellectual disability.
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Are you against eliminating the FDIC or deposit insurance? I am fine with the current structure but merging FDIC into Treasury would not be a huge change. I don't think anyone is considering changing deposit insurance itself.
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Yes. Kind of wonder if this suggestion is coming from someone who knows someone who is short regional banks. The nature of bank runs means they probably only need to say this a few times to have an impact. No need to ever follow through and abolish anything.
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Are there specific 2025 forecasts you think are off? Trump's "flood the zone" and "the weave" approach to campaigning and press make it difficult to identify specific policy. Many of his most identifiable policies (end birthright citizenship) might be outside the President's powers.
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I would be interested in something like this for my comments on Fornax over the years. 😀
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It is a way of bookmarking a conversation. People can search for that image and find all conversations they have left it in.
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See the replies.
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For Mexico and Canada, the tariffs are an opening offer to negotiate other areas like immigration that are important to Trump and his supporters.
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@michaelpettis.bsky.social is one of the authors of that and has been posting each day about various takes on tariffs.
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For the China tariffs, the positive could be reorganising the international economic order so the US isn't the consumer of last resort.
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A 30k margin in WI is less than an estimated 38k swing in Latinos. That is 447k Latinos voting at 45% national rate and the margin swing of 19%. Very rough but with 8k margin of error maybe it holds up. 30k is tiny so the swing in lots of groups probably covers the margin.
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That study is careful to distinguish "news influencers" from overall "influencers". In the broader category, a 2023 figure reported by Collabstr, states 77% of "influencers" are female. Even within the Pew report they consider 28,000 accounts but narrow it to 2,500 based on specifics.
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www.merriam-webster.com/wordplay/mor...