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ryanbohl.bsky.social
Girl dad. Dog friend. Chicken wrangler. Middle Eastern geopolitics (however you define it) at the RANE Network.
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New from @truth.bsky.social: the US is preparing a massive buildup in the Middle East as the Yemeni Civil War prepares to reignite. Hunterbrook tracked hundreds of USAF cargo flights in CENTCOM over the last month, seeing a nearly 400% increase as the US deployed numerous assets.

More serious point abt today's White House event. Bukele is actively and publicly conspiring to violate American domestic law and orders of American courts. Trump won't be in power forever. The next Democratic administration won't be like the last one.

Alternately, the Trump administration has now made large swathes of its domestic political agenda dependent on the domestic political stability of El Salvador

HAMAS OFFICIAL SAYS ISRAELI NEW PROPOSAL DOES NOT DECLARE COMPLETE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AND ONLY WANTS TO RECEIVE HOSTAGES

🔴 Hamas Official: They're ready to hand over hostages in one batch in exchange for ending the war and withdrawing from Gaza.

Absolutely brutal

The broken clock being right twice a day. I genuinely don't care which way they'd go, just get rid of the time switch.

⚡️ Russian aviation dropped guided bombs on Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, damaging private and residential buildings, a hospital, and nearby garages with ambulances, State Emergency Service reported. 📷 DSNS on Telegram

I'll keep beating this drum until it's burst: Trump thinks he's Reagan, he thinks a deep, short recession will secure his legacy, and he will not be spooked by this kind of data (should he recieve it at all).

The SEPTA crisis should probably be bigger news.

As Texas is in a deep, rough drought (again).

No lawmaker in Congress should be able to own, buy, and sell individual stocks. We need to ban congressional stock trading—and I've got a bill for that.

Today marks one month since Russia refused to accept the full 30-day ceasefire proposed by the U.S. and Ukraine. During this time, Russia has attacked Ukraine with nearly 70 missiles of various types, over 2,200 Shahed drones, and over 6,000 guided bombs.

WOOF. 10-year yield above the yip line

This, by the way, has a major change in it: a majority of Americans now view Israel unfavorably. For anyone who wants to criticize Israel, the door is open.

U.S.-Iran nuclear talks restart tomorrow. Iran is on the backfoot, having lost Assad and being bloodied by the Israelis; they want to both buy time and space, something talks allow. But will they give up their missiles and proxies too? Increasingly they seem to have little choice.

Not a single word to help the 33m small businesses in this country. Not from anyone in the administration. So many buy from China, and don't have alternatives. So many didn't have the cash to front run the tariffs and buy inventory

Very informative chart from Washington Post

Israel has drawn up, but not approved, full-scale occupation plans for Gaza. It has taken them 1.5 years to recognize they will not remove Hamas short of such an exhaustive effort, which faces a deadline of the end of 2026 before Israeli elections upend the war strategy.

The U.S. has also come to this conclusion. It remains possible that the UAE faces some kind of sanctions, particularly from Europe, which is eager to show that the old 1990s human rights regime still exists somewhere.

This is big: House Republicans tucked language into the budget res “rule” that bans the House from voting to terminate Trump’s emergency declaration used to impose tariffs. TL;DR lawmakers who vote for this are officially giving up their power to revoke his tariffs until October.

Ronald Reagan broke inflation with a Fed-induced recession in 1982; his poll numbers crashed. But when the recovery boomed, he became a legend. I really do think Trump not only remembers but thinks he's in the same moment. He's desperately wrong, but if this is true, he's not climbing down.

Elections have consequences

Every damned word of this 4-graf brief, except “By WSJ Staff,” should scare the bejeesus out of you this morning. www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Right-wing elites really did break US Constitutional democracy, the US-led world order, and the economy because they wanted the state to prosecute culture war. Like Viktor Orban. Wanted it so badly that they willfully denied everything else. As @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social found, they admitted it.

Marharyta Polovinko, Ukrainian Defender and artist, died on the frontlines. In 2024, Marharyta evacuated wounded Defenders as a volunteer. Later, she joined the 3rd Assault Brigade. Marharyta shared about her drawings after Russian atrocities in Kyiv region became known:

If anyone is betting on the GOP Congress to save us from tariffs -- don't. Trump thinks he is Caesar, and so do his primary voters.

The first country that's willing to do so -- and not a long of Gazans, just a few thousand it seems. As displacement becomes the de facto strategy, a global diaspora of Gazans could be the result, as the Romans once did the Jews.

Good piece on the implications of this case: www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...

*EU SAYS COUNTER-TARIFFS CAN BE SUSPENDED IF US MAKES FAIR DEAL

Big hot dog guy vibes here. Bill Ackerman on his suddenly poor opinion of Trump.

State Dept spox says Saturday's Iran-US meeting is "not a negotiation. It's a meeting." Won't quite say if it's direct or indirect talks — refers to Trump saying it's direct, although Iranians say it's indirect. Suggests the gathering is about "touching base."

Nice to see BlueSky come into its own -- the Trump-Netanyahu trending topic is full of posts that are either factually inaccurate or don't say anything useful. Just like good ol' Twitter!

Correct.

The financial websites are saying there's some hope for a trade deal. Where exactly is that coming from? Trump didn't even give Israel exemptions, and that was the easiest one possible.

These calculations from the Tax Foundation I think are more apt at what we might see from the tariffs. It won't be the Great Recession. It'll be the Pointless Malaise.

That evaluation will include whether or not Washignton will drop its demands for Iran to abandon its missiles and proxies. Under Trump, I would expect those demands to stick around.

NEW: The EU Commission has proposed 25% counter-tariffs on a range of U.S. imports to take effect May 16.

Cairo is also trying to appease a public outraged by what's happened in Gaza. The least it can do is increase tensions with the Israelis.

On Iran: I still don't think Trump knew what he was saying when he said 'direct' talks. They are clearly indirect on Saturday, and that matters because Iran does not trust the U.S. and in particular Trump. A breakthrough is distant. As Khameini said, no deal, but no war, is Iran's strategy.

At least when Trump misspeaks and says he's starting direct talks with Iran one can say he simply doesn't understand the difference between direct and indirect talks. Bit better than tariffing an empty island of penguins.

The op-eds are still a day or two behind -- writing about DEI and how the Dems are in disarray. The polls too. Like the tariffs themselves, the political impact of what's happened will take a bit to unfold, but none of it can be good for Trump.

Judging by market reaction, today's animal spirits are worshipping at the altar of buying discount stocks for the next few hours.

WASHINGTON (AP) - US Catholic bishops end federal partnerships for major aid work, citing Trump administration funding cuts.

One of the biggest developments of this era is the GOP dumping Wall Street as a beloved consitutent and Wall Street refusing to believe it.