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sarahbinder.bsky.social
Political scientist by day (and night). GWU and Brookings. Co-editor, https://goodauthority.org/ sarahbinder.weebly.com
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Crunch time for Senate Democrats on funding the government. New @goodauth.bsky.social post on why and how the GOP has put Democrats in a vise — and Democrats’ limited options for getting out of it. goodauthority.org/news/us-gove...

Another sign of a disappearing Congress: “Oversight” conducted via evidentiary hearing in federal court rather than by a congressional committee under the lights. Here, tough to shine public spotlight on policy consequences of dismantling CFPB & impact on consumers. www.cnn.com/2025/03/10/p...

Still life with … 🐔🍞🍞🍞

Variation in poverty by cong. districts-- between and within parties. Swing district GOP wary of slashing Medicaid/SNAP, but poverty rates are higher in GOP-held safe red districts. Still, poverty rates vary markedly across the 20 most competitive GOP-held districts-- from <4% to >15% of families

Come to hear @sarahbinder.bsky.social and I weigh in on what’s happened to our system of checks and balances, stay to listen us debate whether our jokes are funny. www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

New post w/ Mark Spindel on the Fed's precarious political position during Trump 2.0. Past guardrails that protected Fed from Trump attacks (less-MAGA GOP, low inflation & legal precedents insulating agency authority) are far weaker today than during Trump 1.0 www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Clarifying! The text also appears in recent appropriations bills and according to NIH carries over into this current CR that expires March 14. bsky.app/profile/eric... grants.nih.gov/grants/guide...

Also, Federal Records Act RIP www.npr.org/2025/02/08/n...

Here's text Congress wrote into a 2017 CR. Blocked Trump/NIH from lowering the "indirect cost" rate to 10%-- which would have slashed billions from biomedical research. Would Trump/Musk comply this time? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ But lawmakers opposed to cuts do have options in a likely March CR

GOP Congress in 2017 rejected Trump proposal to reduce university overhead to 10%. Blocked change in stopgap CR & later in appropriations bill. True, GOP team play seems stronger today than 2017. And Trump acted, didn't ask this time. But lawmakers not powerless here www.nytimes.com/2017/09/11/u...

This sort of “conditional independence” by the Fed is hardly any independence at all. Reminder that Fed (including its quasi-private reserve banks) can’t seal itself off from national politics. @PotomacRC press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

House vs. Senate race to get to a budget resolution first continues!

Was looking in the CongRecord (as one does 😉) for the unanimous consent agreement that structured the timing of Pam Bondi's confirmation vote for AG. And now this ad keeps popping up when I'm online 🙄

House GOP reconciliation math complicated by far-right AND endangered GOP, especially those from blue states most affected by SALT cap. See them down in SW corner of plot. True, cross-pressured GOP tend to cave to party...but w/ such a narrow margin, each GOP can be🤴/👸for the day (or fiscal year).

No surprise in 2016 that most winning House GOP candidates (90% of them) ran ahead of Trump in their district. More surprising: in 2024 ~80% of winning House GOP candidates outperformed Trump. This is not a president with coat tails -- even as he seemingly set the agenda in most of these races.

Yes, you can bake a 🎃 bread on a grill in the dark on a cold night 😂

House v Senate race (🐰🐰 v 🐢🐢) on reconciliation is even crazier than it sounds. Need bicameral GOP agreement on budget resolution w/ reconciliation instructions before suiting up. Are GOP also racing to adopt rival budget resolutions/instructions? And for which FYs? www.politico.com/news/2025/01...

If GOP want to include purchase or takeover of Greenland & Panama Canal in reconciliation, which committee gets the instructions? Foreign Relations (boundaries of US), Energy (territorial possessions), Armed Services (Panama Canal maintenance), Commerce (interstate commerce, also Panama Canal) ? 🤓😉

The Speaker vote was only the beginning. Join me, @sarahbinder.bsky.social, Ruth Bloch Rubin, and Lindsey McPherson for a webinar on Thursday, 1/9 at 2 pm on what's to come in the 119th Congress. www.brookings.edu/events/the-1...

Michael Barr's resignation (as Fed VC, not governor) ismore than a story abt Trump's return to power. Pressures on independent agencies & their leaders-- including the Fed-- are fueled by Trump & separately by conservative courts eager to rein in agency power. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

In 2023, McCarthy elected speaker by giving Massie, Norman, & Roy spots on House Rules Committee (the "arm of the speaker"). First ballot for Mike Johnson makes it plain (yet again): GOP leaders get diddly-squat in return for sharing reins of power. Massie & Normal vote against MJ (tho Roy folds).

Even 🐶🐶 can vote before the House adopts its rules (Jan 2023)

Prevailing view seems to be that House is all but frozen 'til it elects a speaker. That might be politically true & possibly interpretation of H. parliamentarian. But “parliamentary law” offers MC-elects procedural flexibility. Could elect temp speaker to ensure 1/6 EC vote count succeeds.

My sense generally is that “general parliamentary law” in place before House elects Speaker & adopts standing rules provides degree of procedural flexibility likely sufficient to get House thru Jan 6 counting of EC votes. Ofc unchartered ground & depends on where House parliamentarian comes down 🤓

GOP’s legislative debacle is (yet again) the long tail of McCarthy’s 2023 concessions to the hardliners …

Double whammy for House GOP this December ... Slammed by both Christmas *and* Hannukah 😉

Tonight’s 🌝 halo (but no sign of 🧑🏻‍🚀👩🏼‍🚀)

Congress revamped (over Trump veto of FY21 NDAA) board that oversees Voice of America. Board is now 3-3 D-R + SecState. Takes majority bd to appoint VOA head, 5 votes to remove. Once Rubio confirmed, Board likely appoints Kari Lake--if VOA director resigns & GOP Board members on board w/Trump 👀 pick

Challenge of 2 reconciliation bills in one fiscal year is both time (gotta finish by Sept 30 🏃🏽‍♀️🏃🏼‍♂️🥵) and cabin’ing of tax and spending payfors into separate bills. Otherwise, run the risk of losing privileged filibuster-proof status for the 2nd reconciliation bill (if Senate past/precedent is prologue)

🤞🏻this is how barns work 🐴 😂 www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/u...

CFPB more resilient than expected. True, lighter reg touch under Trump 2017-20. But 2000 SCOTUS empowered Biden to appoint director in 2021 & 2024 SCOTUS (7-2) upheld CFPB's funding from Fed. At risk again under Trump 2.0. But can't "delete" it w/o bipartisan rewrite of Federal Reserve Act by Cong.