sbeverts.bsky.social
Thoughts on Europe and the world. Director of @EUISS.bsky.social - the EU think tank on foreign and security policy. Views here are strictly personal - but we can share them.
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Helemaal eens.
Ik weet hoe giga groot de problemen zijn - maar we kunnen van alles samen. Nu opschalen en versnellen.
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Always been keen on avoiding both phrases: 'the West', and the 'Global South'.
But yes, we need to bring together everyone who still believes in basic agreed rules and rejects imperial mindsets.
What I don't get: if the G7 goes, what will happen to all the (good!) cooperation on China and tech?
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Dank Michiel.
Terechte vraag. Ik ga kijken bij de collega’s van NRC wat er mogelijk is. Zou goed zijn als de ideeën ook buiten NL circuleren.
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Really a tough question for all the reasons you outline.
We usually come with many, many people...
If we really have only one seat, it has to be Costa. Because he has a day job, we should nominate a special envoy to do the real legwork. My money would be on Niniisto: knows the Russians well...
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Indeed, no matter how sensitive, that would have to be part of the remit. Hence, UK must be in.
There is a saying in some circles in Kyiv: ‘NATO or nukes’.
Mutatis mutandis that also applies to rest of Europe. If US commitments really go then nuclear issue cannot be dodged. Not there yet but …
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Sure there are areas where our EU interests coincide with China. But we should not underestimate the fundamental tensions in the relationship. Both in security and economic terms, due to Chinese choices, these are rising. Still, where it makes sense we should cooperate.
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Ha!
Yes we do seem to find it easier to recognise what we got wrong than to find a concrete way out of the mess
What Victor Hugo said of God may equally be said of policy makers: they see the light, but slowly.
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Maybe after we all went through a phase of recognising the Balts and Central Europeans were right all along on Russia, we now have a phase of seeing that France was right on the US?
Maybe @sylviekauffmann.bsky.social can write another instalment of Les Aveugles?
#MSC2025
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Absolutely, this the brain’s way of dealing with novelty and uncertainty. But the research on this is clear: policy makers use history badly. They overplay similarities and underplay differences. So it leads to poor decision making.
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The amount of think tank and other papers that we all produced on how to prepare for Trump. All sank without trace.
As Robert Cooper once said: we are in the tree destruction business.
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Indeed. Khong didn't just confirm that policy makers use historical analogies badly but also the consequences of them doing so.
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You’re listening in to a kitchen table exchange that somehow migrated to this site 😜
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There is something deep in our psychological wiring that makes us search for historical analogies at times of crises. When we precisely should think clearly and avoid lazy thinking. Sigh.
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The Weimar+ group of FMs met yesterday and agreed a joint line. But it’s very general and we need big decisions not just positions and principles.