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sim0ngates.bsky.social
I have no need of that hypothesis.
132 posts 210 followers 129 following
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Milestone release of #rstats rms package is now on CRAN with a full suite of survival analysis fitting, validation, and graphical display functions based on semiparametric models, generalizing the Cox PH model to a spectrum of models including accelerated failure time. hbiostat.org/r/rms #StatsSky

This red kite was illegally shot and miraculously survived , only to be to targeted again , with poison . Driven grouse shooting must end – please sign @wildjustice.bsky.social’s petition now govpetition.uk/700036

My new post mapping out 69 actions that President Trump has taken in the last twelve weeks to undermine democracy, undermine the rule of law, attack enemies, suppress dissent and control information. Do read and share. Full 🧵 tomorrow hopefully! christinapagel.substack.com/p/a-republic...

Let's see your protocol then...

Martin Wolf is not messing around here www.ft.com/content/d96d...

Yesterday, the journal Nature published a study on the shingles vaccine and dementia. 2 years ago I wrote a review of the authors pre-print, and why I’m not convinced it’s true. Here’s that review. Stay tuned for an updated review of the Nature publication. open.substack.com/pub/epiellie...

It’s 9am TFT time here, and citizens are already gathering to protest Tariffs by the United States. Our plain clothes Officer Penguins are attempting to maintain calm, but unfortunately we keep losing them in the crowd.

I was wondering

Rejoice

For every populist worldwide action, imagine the response if a left winger did it: - Massive embezzlement - Accidentally sharing military plans with a journalist - Causing a recession cos you don't understand tariffs - Storming the Capitol Building - Threatening to invade neighbouring counties

A new technical (and galaxy-brained conceptual) blog post: modelling how 'things change over time' (including survival modelling): jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos... Feedback to improve this very welcome!

We took over the giant screen at Farage’s big rally in Birmingham

In case of emergency: A map of every capybara in the UK and France www.google.com/maps/@/data=...

New paper in @bmj.com. Ever been told ‘what does your DAG say?” or “show me your DAG”, or “ok draw a DAG” and not sure what that means or how to get started? Well buckle up, because Fernando Hartwig, @neilmdavies.bsky.social and I wrote an RMR on just this topic. www.bmj.com/content/388/...

Pathetic www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

PhD Student, Ella Howes, has just released the latest episode of the Trials Methodology podcast with our very own @willjcragg.bsky.social , covering all things to do with the 'how' of trials methodology💡 Give it a listen here (or on Apple podcasts if you prefer): open.spotify.com/episode/04JZ...

Remember that time Trump and Putin had a private meeting back in 2018? www.cnn.com/2018/07/17/p...

Hot off the presses: this year I am offering four brand new remote courses covering more advanced Bayesian modeling techniques: mixture modeling, survival modeling, pairwise comparison modeling, and ordinal modeling, www.eventzilla.net/e/advanced-b.... Tell your friends, colleagues, and frenemies.

This is the journal that, last month, asked me to review a paper for free.

Only 1 week left to book our 2nd Contemporary Clinical Trials Methodology Meeting, 2-3 April, with the exciting agendas and speakers in store below! >2nd April - statistical >3rd April - trial operations, data systems and data management Register here: www.imperial.ac.uk/events/18598...

Australia

In a world where we often despair with hopelessness, @chrischirp.bsky.social work is essential. Great ideas about making a difference below 👇🏻👏 open.substack.com/pub/christin...

How avoidance of research waste is now emphasized in the Declaration of Helsinki, and how you might want to improve some of your data management and analysis practices in light of this change (talk, 40 minutes). www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1nb...

"Ms Fox [said] she was concerned at what was happening to the science community in the US, but questioned whether ejecting Mr Musk would achieve the Royal Society's overall aims of educating and advancing scientific research." Spineless @sciencemediacentre.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What is meant by a 'while on treatment' estimand? thestatsgeek.com/2025/03/03/w...

Over 50,000 signatures and still climbing fast!! Join @ukstoptrump.bsky.social & say Starmer must cancel Trump's state visit stoptrump.org.uk/petition-can...

My paper looking at using causal forests to determine data driven subgroups is now out! Check it out here:) bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

This is why I won't review for them for free.

As we're all going to be using ordinal models a lot more...

🔈Announcing a series of webinars showcasing our 2024 Trials Adverse Event Special Series. Over the course of 2025 we have a range of talks lined up covering trial conduct, analysis, reporting, and public involvement. Please register your interest here: forms.microsoft.com/e/qqNgLTP651

doi.org/10.1002/sim.... Our paper "A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Time-To-Event Analyses in Randomized Controlled Trials Under Non-Proportional Hazards" got published today 🎉 We describe commonly used methods, and compare their performance in a simulation study across different scenarios.

Looking for an NIHR pre-doctoral fellowship opportunity in trials methodology? Feel free to contact me!

Denmark MP Rasmus Jarlov: "[US] has taken no casualties in Ukraine ... paid 4% of US defence budget for one year and that was too much for them ... they will surrender to Russia. We can not trust such spineless people ... If Russia invaded Poland tomorrow, they would make excuses and do nothing."

If?

All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes Trump has already checked off.

edzz.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid... Senior Biostatistician job available. Happy to discuss with anyone - contact me if you're interested (my email is on the university website).